Some notes on Amur Minerals (LSE:AMUR)

Scribbled some notes on Amur Minerals and their impressive Nickel find in Russia.

“Amur Minerals and the great nickel find” https://link.medium.com/yn6Br9NCP6

Anyone holding?

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I looked at it then saw these charts and stepped away…

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Recent dilution. Still finding its feet.

Cant take away from the find which is already at mre.

It’s big, just seems like noone cares.

Invested in AMC since December planing to add some more up to few tens k rather no more. There was rocky road with them for me with them but planning to hold for little bit longer

@Donald_Duck, you do not seem very keen (according to your post) due to dilution and disregard for shareholders with even the possibility of selling off cheap.
Have you invested?

Yes. Everything aside it’s one of the biggest Nickel finds of a generation. It’s a bet though, I can’t tell you with any certainty that anything good will come of it.

Okay. I actually thought that you were not keen. I am very very new to investing in mining stocks but I will do some research and let you know what I think :smiley:.

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@Donald_Duck I forgot I had set a limit buy on this, not canceled and it triggered today.

So I now have 10,000 shares @ 1.160 :rofl:

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Down already - you’re one of us!

I have had a look at it and I have been surprised by how little information I have been able to find online. There were very few recent “reputable” articles or youtube videos.

Just a few comments:

Feasibility study:

  • Their feasibility study from 2019 (Awaiting the definitive study from later this year) is based on a Nickel price of 8 USD per lb, but their website states that the current price is 5.71 USD per lb, so not great.
  • Cannot comment on the geology, I do not know much.
  • They expect to be in the lower second quartile of costs, which is good and very important but I did not find the actual numbers in order to confirm. I only found the company’s statement on it.

Shareholders:

  • A very large proportion of the shares is owned by institutions, eg. 25% Interactive Investors, 16% Hargreaves Landsdown, 11.4% HSDL, 6.3% Barclays, 5% HSBC… Does anyone know if these are specialist investors? Do any of these names give you confidence? I would probably say that they are too general.
  • The board has only 2.3% of the shares which is a bit low for my liking. There is an equivalent 7.6% in options, probably issued to the board, but I cannot be certain.

Board:

  • The only Russian sounding name on the board resigned this month. In theory he will continue as an external advisor, but I feel like in a jurisdiction like Russia internal knowledge and contacts is important.
  • None of the big institutional investors seem to be on the board. This is probably why Amur goes frequently into equity raises instead of debt, as the actual sahreholders have limited input on the board.

Finances, based on June 2019:

  • They had 690k of cash, which is roughly what they burnt in the previous 6 months as well as some finance, so very little cash. Since then they have issued shares several times so the situation may have improved, at the cost of the existing shareholders and probably not enough considering the 2.6m liabilities they had. The last couple of share issues listed on the LSE website were not sufficiently significant to ensure that no more raises will be need in the near future. I am hoping to see some updated finances this month.

Future:

  • @Donald_Duck, the main relevant video I found on youtube from a board member (I believe that it is the board member that you mention) does already mention China as a possible off-taker of the resource, I guess once they enter production, but I guess they could buy the company out earlier.
    Video from board member

Overall:

  • I think the situation of the company is not great and I would like to see the latest finances post Covid-19. They will soon be releasing their finance as of December 2019 which at leats will have more information. I am quite concerned with their habit to engage in shares issues so frequently and the lack of investors on the board, also concerning (but less) that the main source of local knowledge they had on the board has stepped down. My advice would probably be wait and see and stay away from it for the time being or invest a small amount.

What are other member’s thoughts?

The spread seems quite far, atm 1.202 to buy and 1.117 to sell so ~0.085

Looks like a close of 1.151 :expressionless:

A 1.7 or 2p period would be nice. I can’t see any news that matches up to these peaks, they can’t be random. Or can they? :laughing:

I wouldn’t worry about this too much. Nickel inventory is still being drawn down post 2008 when there was a rush to commodities and thus stockpiles had to be much larger, this is hurting the price.

Once the drawdown has finished there’ll be a considerably less supply then demand especially if Nickel batteries continue to be needed for EV or electrification (or energy storage at green energy producers).

I’d expect you’ll see something of a rally like the recent Palladium rise.

It’s a bet. The due diligence is almost worthless for me, as I can’t trust the data. This is all about Adam Habib.

This :point_up_2:. This guy is a heavyweight to the Amur board and has done substantial financing deals.

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@krr13 and @Donald_Duck, is he that good? What are his credentials and what is his role? Is he just an advisor, not on the board?

He is an advisor. I’ve amended my post to say “to the board”.

Watch this.

That is also the video that I made reference to in my post earlier :smiley:

What else do you know about him?

https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-habib-203a3422?originalSubdomain=uk

It’s public knowledge. He’s a very well connected man.

MD Credit Suisse.
MD Lehman Brothers

And most recently MD ICBC bank.

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So the possible issue of shares (equal number to the current one) is to acquire a “cash -generating asset” to finance their future development. It seems like they seriously want to develop their mine, which may not be the best news for @Donald_Duck :wink: . Though Habib’s smile around minute 9 when speaking about a possible sale may say otherwise.

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