Iām much the same nowadays, most my money just goes in a tracker as I like an easy life.
I like investment trusts and comfortably outperformed VWRP with them in recent years, but I canāt be bothered with the opportunity cost of research etc any more.
That said, I do have a relatively small portfolio of individual stocks to scratch an itch.
The US market can appear stretched compared with historical norms by various valuation metrics such as cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratios (something I recently learned). Moreover, it looks like some analysts are saying that strong ETF inflows can create a feedback loop, driving valuations higher than underlying fundamentals might justify. Equally, momentum remains firmly on the side of large US equities, which continue to draw significant global investment, and it is not necessarily the case that all of a sudden such momentum must end just because certain metrics suggest caution.
I donāt have a great deal of knowledge about Japanās economy; however, after some research, it looks like Japan often trades at valuation levels that seem more modest by comparison, and as you said, its currency has indeed been notably weak, particularly against the US dollar and, more recently, GBP. That could offer potential upside if the yen were to strengthen and if the corporate sector manages to harness any improved global outlook. At the same time, Japanās equity markets have historically been affected by structural challenges, so the argument for investing there relies not only on currency fluctuations but also on whether one believes Japanās domestic and export-driven companies will show sustainable growth.
From a purely analytical perspective, neither the US nor Japanese markets present a one-dimensional story. Overvaluation in the US does not guarantee an imminent decline, particularly while investor sentiment remains upbeat. Conversely, weaker valuation in Japan does not automatically translate to higher returns if market dynamics fail to shift or if Japanās economic reforms do not yield the anticipated benefits. The decision to rebalance from the US into Japan could be prudent if you are seeking to diversify and take advantage of what you might perceive as undervalued opportunities, but it also carries the usual risks of investing in a market with its own cyclical and structural uncertainties. Whether we agree, as usual, I believe it depends on individual risk appetite and investment horizons rather than any single data point on valuationā¦and this is my two pennāorth.
With regard to what Iām buying on LSE, Iām not buying anything just now. The last thing I bought was Metro Banking on 18th of December. Liquidity can be poor for a lot of stocks on LSE. I donāt personally swing trade. I tend to hold stocks for a few months to a couple of years.