Alibaba delisting what happens?

This is the best written article about this event. Put things into perspective. What happened to Shell when they moved to delist from Nederlands? What happened to Ryan Air on LSE delist news?

The key is ownership and continuity of this not the value of the stock.

I am now even more convinced that what has happened to DIDI is unlikely to happen to BABA. I have no magic wand or crystal ballā€¦ but it is low likelihood. The Chinese regulator doesnā€™t want delistingā€¦ itā€™s clear.

Guys - the requirement is NOT about having a US auditor but rather the ability for PCAOB being able to inspect the work of the auditors. So with BABA PwC HK can continue to audit they just need access to the files.

They are two very different things! This happened with HK and Mainland China agreement back in 2019 as wellā€¦ HK reg was not allowed access until they came to an agreement due to the Trump bill on foreign company audit compliance requirements.

Looks like Iā€™ll need to make a video on all of thisā€¦

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Let me ask you thisā€¦ if the risk is so high why is Jd.com still trading at the same price as it was last year? The risk should be uniform as even that operates under a VIEā€¦ BABA is the only one getting smashed because of its size and exposure.

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I like this wording.

Hmm.

I see almost every Chinese stock getting obliteratedā€¦

Bili, pdd, tcehy, bidu, babaā€¦

So this is definitely not baba only ā€¦

JD is so far holding ā€œokā€ but I would not bet against it crushing like rest.

Risdk Of delisting
ā€œRecently, Chinaā€™s own securities regular chimed in on the matter, saying that a ban on foreign VIEs was not being considered.ā€

ā€œChinaā€™s securities regulator has denied Bloomberg ā€˜s report.ā€

ā€œWhile there remain reasons to be bullish on Alibaba, this year has proved a wild ride for investors. Some experts have suggested that the worst of the regulatory crackdown may be overā€”but that hasnā€™t stopped investors fretting about the future of Alibabaā€

This is my worst performing stock of the year.

Here is another factā€¦ there are 248 Chinese companies listed on the US Stock exchanges as of May 2021. Of these 8 are State owned with the biggest state owned being Petro China Company limited.

BABA is the biggest of all Chinese companies - if you delist BABA then every one of those other Chinese companies should be delisted.

Source: https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2021-05/Chinese_Companies_on_US_Stock_Exchanges_5-2021.pdf

BABA is the worst performing and most affected. Its market cap has fallen by over 50% since May this year. It is my worst performing stock in the shortest period of time. If I can manage to hold on to it from a ownership perspective (irrespective of delisting), I know it will make my money back.

It makes up 15% of my overall portfolio and I am down 24% on the holding.

But who knows, maybe your best performing stock of 2022. :crossed_fingers:

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Probably the latter - sell and rebut after the ISA transfer has completed. if its just a cash transfer it could be quick Trading212 are very quick usually.

Imagine if this goes to OTC and IBKR suspends trading on T212 due to higher than normal trading volumes. :rofl:

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Wouldnā€™t totally rule it out :joy:

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Or maybe there is a lot of political infighting quietly taking place in Beijing and we are just along for the ride at this point. Fact is if the CCP want to keep US listings they need to allow mainland audit inspections or whatever accountants call it. We know they have never allowed these and have not relented in the last year despite the writing being on the wall. IF they relent we are fine. IF they intend to continue to refuse it is possible (probable?) that they will rugpull listings themselves rather then sitting about for the SEC to do it for them in three years. I cannot see what China gains by dragging out proceedings if they know what they are going to do. Or (my bet) they have no idea which explains the recent rumours and mixed messages.

Didi and this latest admittedly sketchy Bloomberg ā€˜sourceā€™ suggest that China are not wedded to US listings. That Bloomberg rebuttal just said they wanted companies to be able to pick their own listings it didnā€™t say China was going to comply with US auditing regs/requirements. Obviously all of this is only a problem for Baba holders if you are with a non HK broker like T212.

Iā€™m not saying we should be panicking just yet but if China drop a mass delisting bombshell, the stock craters and we canā€™t convert then we are in a less than ideal position. This is an odds game and Iā€™d say there is clearly a non zero chance of us getting in a real bind given the last week or so.

T212 say itā€™s takes 4 weeks to transfer so Iā€™m going to assume thatā€™s correct. To be honest I have no idea what Iā€™d do if the worst happened which is not how I like to invest

Everything on this thread is speculation.
I havenā€™t seen the Bloomberg rebuttal, but the original article seemed to suggest it was future IPOs that would be blocked on VIE structures.

I think the best thing Trading212 can do is enable inspecie transfers. So you can atleast transfer your Baba stock out to another ISA provider that supports the HK listings. This will really help the ownership experience.

Yeah that or HK. Not sure why T212 would expend development resources to make switching away easier though.

It helps both ways - I want to transfer my Freetrade ISA assets to Trading212 eventually. I switched from t212 to make sure I donā€™t breach the FSCS protection requirements in the event of capital appreciation.

Good point. Have T212 weighed in on their position on inspec transfers? I feel like they would have done it by now if it was easy

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Having organised several in specieā€™s for investment funds, I can tell you that itā€™s a total pain in the hoop. Complete lack of market standardisation and thatā€™s with all the big players.

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Remember folks:

  • diversify your portfolios!
  • totalitarian governments and stock markets donā€™t go well together!

Iā€™m getting burned by this too, but itā€™s not a whipeout or anything.
Iā€™m thankful for the burn, next time I wonā€™t touch the red stove again.

I also learned meanwhile that in many cases, when you buy CN stocks, you esentially give money to The Party.

Since

  1. They have their ā€œarmsā€ in many of these companies, whether thatā€™s publicly disclosed or not.
  2. They can decide to take money from these companies at any time, to fuel their agendas, the money that me & u have given them by buying stock.

We essentially help their gov evolve, into what they are, and do, today.

Anyway, this is just 1 view, everyone is free to think and act as they wish.

Just remember when we buy US stocks we are also supporting the US govt which is not one I want to support, heck even UK govt are pretty bad. Investing everyone has their lines, but lets not pretend we are the good guys in the west on every occasion.

Right now I think the key things people can do if your BABA is on T212 is:

  • Hold tight
  • Open an account with a broker that allows HK BABA listing (9988.HK is ticker) whether through ISA or a taxable wrapper.
  • If it gets to a point you feel you need to switch then sell BABA and buy on other platform which you already have account with.

For T212 the quickest win is just to allow HK shares and we can sell and re-buy ourselves without needing to convert.

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