This is the best written article about this event. Put things into perspective. What happened to Shell when they moved to delist from Nederlands? What happened to Ryan Air on LSE delist news?
The key is ownership and continuity of this not the value of the stock.
I am now even more convinced that what has happened to DIDI is unlikely to happen to BABA. I have no magic wand or crystal ball⦠but it is low likelihood. The Chinese regulator doesnāt want delisting⦠itās clear.
Guys - the requirement is NOT about having a US auditor but rather the ability for PCAOB being able to inspect the work of the auditors. So with BABA PwC HK can continue to audit they just need access to the files.
They are two very different things! This happened with HK and Mainland China agreement back in 2019 as well⦠HK reg was not allowed access until they came to an agreement due to the Trump bill on foreign company audit compliance requirements.
Looks like Iāll need to make a video on all of thisā¦
Let me ask you this⦠if the risk is so high why is Jd.com still trading at the same price as it was last year? The risk should be uniform as even that operates under a VIE⦠BABA is the only one getting smashed because of its size and exposure.
Risdk Of delisting āRecently, Chinaās own securities regular chimed in on the matter, saying that a ban on foreign VIEs was not being considered.ā
āChinaās securities regulator has denied Bloomberg ās report.ā
āWhile there remain reasons to be bullish on Alibaba, this year has proved a wild ride for investors. Some experts have suggested that the worst of the regulatory crackdown may be overābut that hasnāt stopped investors fretting about the future of Alibabaā
Here is another fact⦠there are 248 Chinese companies listed on the US Stock exchanges as of May 2021. Of these 8 are State owned with the biggest state owned being Petro China Company limited.
BABA is the biggest of all Chinese companies - if you delist BABA then every one of those other Chinese companies should be delisted.
BABA is the worst performing and most affected. Its market cap has fallen by over 50% since May this year. It is my worst performing stock in the shortest period of time. If I can manage to hold on to it from a ownership perspective (irrespective of delisting), I know it will make my money back.
It makes up 15% of my overall portfolio and I am down 24% on the holding.
Probably the latter - sell and rebut after the ISA transfer has completed. if its just a cash transfer it could be quick Trading212 are very quick usually.
Or maybe there is a lot of political infighting quietly taking place in Beijing and we are just along for the ride at this point. Fact is if the CCP want to keep US listings they need to allow mainland audit inspections or whatever accountants call it. We know they have never allowed these and have not relented in the last year despite the writing being on the wall. IF they relent we are fine. IF they intend to continue to refuse it is possible (probable?) that they will rugpull listings themselves rather then sitting about for the SEC to do it for them in three years. I cannot see what China gains by dragging out proceedings if they know what they are going to do. Or (my bet) they have no idea which explains the recent rumours and mixed messages.
Didi and this latest admittedly sketchy Bloomberg āsourceā suggest that China are not wedded to US listings. That Bloomberg rebuttal just said they wanted companies to be able to pick their own listings it didnāt say China was going to comply with US auditing regs/requirements. Obviously all of this is only a problem for Baba holders if you are with a non HK broker like T212.
Iām not saying we should be panicking just yet but if China drop a mass delisting bombshell, the stock craters and we canāt convert then we are in a less than ideal position. This is an odds game and Iād say there is clearly a non zero chance of us getting in a real bind given the last week or so.
T212 say itās takes 4 weeks to transfer so Iām going to assume thatās correct. To be honest I have no idea what Iād do if the worst happened which is not how I like to invest
Everything on this thread is speculation.
I havenāt seen the Bloomberg rebuttal, but the original article seemed to suggest it was future IPOs that would be blocked on VIE structures.
I think the best thing Trading212 can do is enable inspecie transfers. So you can atleast transfer your Baba stock out to another ISA provider that supports the HK listings. This will really help the ownership experience.
It helps both ways - I want to transfer my Freetrade ISA assets to Trading212 eventually. I switched from t212 to make sure I donāt breach the FSCS protection requirements in the event of capital appreciation.
Having organised several in specieās for investment funds, I can tell you that itās a total pain in the hoop. Complete lack of market standardisation and thatās with all the big players.
Just remember when we buy US stocks we are also supporting the US govt which is not one I want to support, heck even UK govt are pretty bad. Investing everyone has their lines, but lets not pretend we are the good guys in the west on every occasion.
Right now I think the key things people can do if your BABA is on T212 is:
Hold tight
Open an account with a broker that allows HK BABA listing (9988.HK is ticker) whether through ISA or a taxable wrapper.
If it gets to a point you feel you need to switch then sell BABA and buy on other platform which you already have account with.
For T212 the quickest win is just to allow HK shares and we can sell and re-buy ourselves without needing to convert.