Discussion of chart analysis

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I try to do a weekly analysis of the charts for my main watchlist and thought that I might start to post interesting charts from time to time.

So…

I am not looking to buy into CRSP I have mixed views on gene editing but I’ve seen a few articles that are positive about CRSP stock (look at the news feed on tradingview)

The chart is interesting. Big rise after earnings were reported in early May and then went sideways before pulling back. It has now sat on a support line for a week and depending on which MA/EMA you use it is testing or broken above MA. Indicators are oversold and tentatively turning positive but some other indicators that I use heavily are generating strong buy signals.

It will be interesting to see whether it breaks the support at 56 or goes back up using MA as support

crsp 1-7-23

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There are a lot of charts at the moment where the share price is sitting on a historic support level. I don’t hold CRST (Crest Nicholson) but have seen it tipped (eg Investors Chronicle) in the past. It does pay a significant dividend. If you adjust the chart for dividends (which the T212 can’t do) the current share price is sitting just on/above the purple support line. Again the indicators I use most heavily are generating buy signals so again it will be interesting to see whether it bounces of the support or drops below it. The downtrend from June 21 to Oct 22 was broken in Dec 22 when the price broke through the declining resistance (23/12/22) and its basically defaulted to a channel between 210 and 250 and has tested both sides of that channel so will it create a sideways channel or break out above/below. Historically (adjusting for dividends) the present level has been a support level since 2013 (albeit the chaos in 2020 it broke below the level for a short time).

PS: I’d be cautious at the moment given the economic situation with interest rates etc there will probably be some volatility with builders

crst 1-7-23

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I don’t have time to post chart but Google is positive I think. Its on the lower support level of a rising channel with indicators turning positive from overbought and generating buy signals.

I’m not a big fan of Google as a company so don’t hold and dyor… but quick look at chart it seem positive perhaps for either 126 resistance level or the upper resistance of channel is at 134. Next major support on downside is 107

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Palantir (PLTR) has risen significantly and then had a modest pull-back before starting to rise again (currently 15.33). It is below its recent high (17). There are some bearish voices saying that AI is a bubble which will burst (even though those same voices then add that long term AI will be a major tech driving successful companies to significant valuations). At the moment PLTR is sitting on its MA line with indicators such as stochastic positive. Thus short term the question is whether it will stay below the MA or break through it for a further rise. My personal view is that the chart is positive. I suspect that there may be some volatility during July but I suspect with some strength and results are due 9 Aug with upward re-rating possible but then the results will be a significant test and either will produce another strong rise or if they fail to meet revised estimates it could cause short term weakness. I suspect that these results will be impossible to predict in terms of the market response because there will be so many competing views (some will be looking for any sign of a bubble and others will look for any hint of future bonanza with many in between). The chart during July is going to be very interesting

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Or it could be that analysing what the chart did in the past as a way to predict what it will do in the future is as accurate as a horoscope.

I think PLTR defiantly benefited from the recent ai pump but in their case its probably not the whole story. I think it started the uptrend when they became profitable for the first time, plus they have posted a number of good contracts since.

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I am a big believer in technical analysis. It can’t predict what will happen with complete accuracy but there is a strong correlation between the price behaviour and the past chart. How many times have you seen a price bouncing of a support or resistance level or trading within a well defined channel…

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I don’t dispute that, but you cant predict what catalyst will break it out of that channel, or when.

Take “finfluencer” chicken genius, who was bragging about timing the market based on charts. He sold PLTR right before the ai pump, and Tesla right before it broke its channel.

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@MaxZorin people who invest purely on fundamentals don’t know what random event might cause the price to crash or rocket… I don’t try to brag that I can predict every move.

Fundamentals don’t tell you everything. PE and lots of other factors are heavily based on sentiment. There is clear logic behind chart theory. It can’t predict every move and is open to interpretation. Also even if you spot a move in a chart it is extremely hard to know whether this is going to be the move that doubles the price or just takes it up 2% before a pull back… However, fundamentals are exactly the same. Thus everybody has to choose what blend works for them.

Personally I use a few different strategies, some just for short term trades and others for longer term. I have built a complex model with a large watchlist where stock is weighted for a large number of factors including my long term view of the company and fundamentals. I will then use the chart analysis to rank buying opportunities based on a combination of both chart analysis and fundamentals.

Edit: if you read my posts I am not trying to ramp or brag but give a balanced view including some comment about fundamentals or external factors that could influence what happens with the chart. Essentially trying to just give people a bit of food for thought for them to do their own research or analysis and hopefully to provoke a bit of debate and discussion and I’d happy give a quick look at charts other people suggest

Edit 2: also implicitly inviting people to say “yes the chart may look great but … probably means that it will rise/fall/go sideways because…” and have some discussion

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I’ve only been dibbling with stocks for a couple of weeks, as a retirement pastime, with sparish money. So far it’s going OK apart from a couple of minor panics - trying to get that under control!
As a bit of a mathematician/software engineer, of couse I’ve had thoughts of programming a better stocktrap, or an intelligent trading algorithm to make me rich while pottering in the garden…

I’ve read quite a lot about chart analysis, and formed an opinion that some indicators are highly respectable, but others are just about useless.
I’ve been watching

  • support and resistance levels with pivot points,
  • volumes with patterns in the candlesticks, and
  • to some extent a pair of EMAs .

Many others tell you the bleedin’ obvious, late.
It does seem to me that some of those don’t really tell you anything much with some stocks, whereas a news item can have a big effect.
The analyses at stockinvest.us are interesting. ChatGPT generated, I gather.

I daresay today’s Tesla numbers with pictures of smiling Elon will bear out his comment
“Please advise people to be wary of margin loans. Tesla has always been a high variability stock, often with no obvious rhyme or reason. We are confident about long-term value creation, but cannot control the manic-depressive nature of the stock market.”
I’ll take off my safety collar and long strangle, and go long on popcorn.

What will the price do when the market opens??!! Go into orbit then come back to just-a bit-more-than-it-is?
I closed my TSLA posn Friday at 263.70, happy. I should have found out when their sales figures came out, huh? (Hmm, when are Apple’s?)

One unmathematical fancy I have is TWIST. They make the biological parts needed to work in/on/with genetic engineering. So whenever the next success is reported, they could be attractive.

Always keen to read analyses from others with experience, so thanks, and please keep doing it!

Chris

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@Punting cheers Chris. There are several indicators that I find useful. The T212 charts are good but have numerous limitations. On the positive side they allow unlimited alerts and allow you to use multiple indicators but it would be good if they had some more complex indicators. I would suggest Tradingview as well. Their paid packages are fairly pricey but you can open a free account and their charts are amongst the best I’ve found.

Like you I don’t find some indicators useful. I do use slow Stochastic, MA, EMA and LSMA.

I don’t follow tsla but will take a look at the chart.

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I hope you “folllowed Tesla”. When the price jumped it behaved in the way which seems characteristic, and almost in unison with Lucid and Rivian.
BIg invisible rise above the opening price so don’t put an order in early, then it settles while what I assume is profit-taking. Then for the rest of the day, if the news was actually good, there’s a general rise.

Obviously , good sales for one EV maker would be somewhat reflected in similar companies, so I tracked a few.
It was worth watching a few - I chose 3 - because when a ripple appeared on all three, it wasn’t going to be just Elon pulling out of their cage fight.

A day later(?) I followed Meta and Sweetgreen after their news pushed pre-trading prices up, there were gains of a few% to be had there too.

I’ve noticed that when stocks drop like a rock at market opeing for no well-publicised reason, they tend to come back up again during the day. Again, usable rises. Look back at Nvidia, AMD.
My policy, for a trial, will be to watch 16 or so of these on a screen to spot downward jolts. The recoveries aren’t so rapid that you don’t have time to search for reasons.

Letblue did this after their advertised jump-on-opening - not the sell off at the end of this day:
image

One could have easily lost a bit before giving up on Caribou CRBU , too. ELVA would have been a wild ride.

This was the Tesla Good Figures day:
The boxes are just drawn to indicate %, - as shown.
5 minute candles, so the prices are "real " about one candle in
image

they all showed a rise from then. I held out until Lucid was first to show a a reverse at 15:20 and sold all three.
By 15:45 it was Rivian which showed a rise so I transferred all to that.
There was a bit of a drop at 17:05 but the other two had had a drop at 16:40 and recovered, so I held on a little longer, and sold happy.

The price did dip and rise 3%, but I didn’t get much of that. Have to eat sometime!

Does anyone have a tested policy for going at predicted overnight rises?
My main takeaway is don’t order before th open, you’ll get a horribly high price.
Secondly, don’t try to follow too many at once. Max about 4, T212 is slow.
Third, I’d try a x2 or x3 instrument, in future, and prepare sandwiches.