Rocket Lab [Discussion Thread] NASDAQ:VACQ (Vector Acquisition Corp) SPAC

He is a bit eccentric Iā€™d agree, the hat stunt was because years ago he said Rocket Lab wouldnā€™t go down the reusable first stage route and heā€™d ā€˜eat his hatā€™ if they did.

Personally I donā€™t draw comparisons as Rocket Lab hasnā€™t rolled any rockets down hills :wink:

Who needs rockets when the earth is flat anyway? :smiley:

Iā€™m just playing devils advocate, I do like the look of these guys. I need to do more research before investing but it certainly looks promising. I fully believe space is the future of humanity, and it is time for us to leave the cradle of Earth. The cradle is only for your infant years. However, Iā€™m unsure about timelines. Is investing in rockets and space now the correct time? Iā€™m inclined to say yes, but need to know more.

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I am interested in dabbling in VACQ, and it looks like a lot of activity will take place in Q2 this year, however it does appear to be trading at 30x next years sales, so not exactly cheap.

He is a bitā€¦ off, but that much more than expected for guys at that level :slight_smile:

I think he ate his hat for a very good reason (if any reason can be good for such action) If he just flat out announced they are building a bigger rocket and reusable boosters people wouldā€™ve called him a ā€œflip flopperā€ and he literally said years ago: heā€™d eat his hat if they build reusable boosters.

By eating a few finely chopped strings from his hat the announcement became a marketing stunt instead of a negative

I admire his commitment.

In a way, these eccentric Elon Musk, or Alex Karp (Palantir CEO) type characters seem to do well. Maybe he will follow suit.

I mean people who were following space industry already knew him anyway. One minor stunt and main stream media CNBC etc are talking about them and their SPAC, and there tiktoks about him.

I definitely hope so. I am however sort of glad there isnā€™t a massive huge hype around it in a way that someone like Musk would. Allowed me to average down a bit, to an average of $12.64 which though not great, itā€™s not a long term concern. What can I say, Iā€™m impatient :man_shrugging: :sweat_smile:

On a purely technical basis Iā€™d have liked ~$11.30, again, Iā€™m an impatient man generallyā€¦

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Iā€™d be interested to hear from someone bearish though

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The current price is very tempting for me I must say.

I would certainly like to hear the bearish case also as from my research (albeit limited) Iā€™m quite bullish on the company prospects. Iā€™m biased as Iā€™m bullish on the entire sector really!

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I donā€™t know a huge amount about this as I havenā€™t researched yet.

But is 30 times next years sales not the bear case? Thatā€™s massive

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I am already onboard since a few weeks a go. Keep trading it pat of my position. Half go in and out to get a better price avarage.

In a normal world Iā€™d agree with you, but it seems stocks have become so detached from reality. I think Iā€™ve become numb to seeing figures like 30 times next years sales! Then again, with the recent dip, Iā€™ve noticed my value stocks with more sensible fundamentals seem to be doing fine; itā€™s my wild tech stocks which are down.

I tried to find the document about the initial offering unsuccessfully. But from what I can remember the pricing on this initial offering is done so with two assumptions:

  • They successfully build neutron and start operational neutron launches no later than end of 2025 (it is planned to be launched in 2024)

  • Space launch market was close $10Bn in 2019, it is expected to be for bearish projection $21Bn and for bullish projection $75Bn in 2027. The rocket lab valuation assumes a market size of $32Bn by 2027 (I am writing these numbers from memory, they are not 100% exact but Iā€™d say 95% :slight_smile: tried to cross-check them with some wiki pages and market research)

So it was priced pretty much with these assumptions and yes price/sales price/book etc values do exist for this year, next year etc, but they are not really representative.

Another thing is (explained in one of the above videos from Scot Manley) although Neutron is ā€œhuman capableā€ rocket lab has no plans to design a human space capsule at this time. Meaning itā€™ll either use Spacex dragon or boeing starliner(if it ever gets certifiedā€¦) but there are problems with width and weight numbers of these capsules and capabilities of planned neutron design.

So keep in mind this is ā€œcapableā€ of human flight but it is going to be designed very much targeted for LEO constellation launches.

edit: this also says it can fail horribly :slight_smile: they might f-up the launches of neutron etc. so it is tad bit riskier than investing in water utilities company

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+1 for American Water Works. One of the few green positions in my portfolio right now.

Thanks for this detailed response too. I like to see numbers like that even if they are ballpark.

This is my main bear case for any space based company and for the most part stay away from them. (Repeating myself a bit) However a working flight proven product was a major contributing factor to choosing Rocket Lab.

Iā€™m also definitely looking at it as a much longer term prospect than 12 months, more of a where could a company like this be in 10 years. There is also the bias of ā€˜I like them and their techā€™ that Iā€™m afraid did come into it :sweat_smile:

Iā€™ll be very interested to see Starlink when(if) it goes public as Musk as said it would IPO as a subsidiary of SpaceX (Which heā€™s said will not go public from the last I heard about it)

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I read the presentation earlier today and it does sound like a nice idea, like most companies do via a SPAC as they can pretty much say anything.

At least they have a product and revenue which is a big plus, albeit a small amount of revenue.

It may be one to start really small to get some skin in it and DCA thereafter.

Itā€™ll be interesting to see what happens in the sector when your Raytheonā€™s and Boeing etc get serious on it. Or just acquire one of these start ups.

Iā€™m tempted to chuck Ā£100 in just to encourage myself to do some more research :upside_down_face:

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Steady now there big spender.

What are you going for?

Iā€™m not in fairness, if I was to do anything it would be FOMO for me. Iā€™m in wait and see mode as it will inevitably have a significant dip in the future as thereā€™s so much positivity priced in. If it doesnā€™t fair play and I would of maybe missed out.

Iā€™ll also see how the company develops in the next year or so and if itā€™s got anything about it then paying even double than itā€™s trading at now (if earning increase obviously) then itā€™s not the end of the world.

Iā€™m obviously not saying Iā€™m right as I understand why people would invest. Iā€™m just not playing with huge capital right now so it pays to be prudent.

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I definitely do not condone this sort of behaviour :smirk:

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