He is a bit eccentric Iād agree, the hat stunt was because years ago he said Rocket Lab wouldnāt go down the reusable first stage route and heād āeat his hatā if they did.
Personally I donāt draw comparisons as Rocket Lab hasnāt rolled any rockets down hills
Iām just playing devils advocate, I do like the look of these guys. I need to do more research before investing but it certainly looks promising. I fully believe space is the future of humanity, and it is time for us to leave the cradle of Earth. The cradle is only for your infant years. However, Iām unsure about timelines. Is investing in rockets and space now the correct time? Iām inclined to say yes, but need to know more.
I am interested in dabbling in VACQ, and it looks like a lot of activity will take place in Q2 this year, however it does appear to be trading at 30x next years sales, so not exactly cheap.
He is a bitā¦ off, but that much more than expected for guys at that level
I think he ate his hat for a very good reason (if any reason can be good for such action) If he just flat out announced they are building a bigger rocket and reusable boosters people wouldāve called him a āflip flopperā and he literally said years ago: heād eat his hat if they build reusable boosters.
By eating a few finely chopped strings from his hat the announcement became a marketing stunt instead of a negative
I mean people who were following space industry already knew him anyway. One minor stunt and main stream media CNBC etc are talking about them and their SPAC, and there tiktoks about him.
I definitely hope so. I am however sort of glad there isnāt a massive huge hype around it in a way that someone like Musk would. Allowed me to average down a bit, to an average of $12.64 which though not great, itās not a long term concern. What can I say, Iām impatient
On a purely technical basis Iād have liked ~$11.30, again, Iām an impatient man generallyā¦
Iād be interested to hear from someone bearish though
The current price is very tempting for me I must say.
I would certainly like to hear the bearish case also as from my research (albeit limited) Iām quite bullish on the company prospects. Iām biased as Iām bullish on the entire sector really!
In a normal world Iād agree with you, but it seems stocks have become so detached from reality. I think Iāve become numb to seeing figures like 30 times next years sales! Then again, with the recent dip, Iāve noticed my value stocks with more sensible fundamentals seem to be doing fine; itās my wild tech stocks which are down.
I tried to find the document about the initial offering unsuccessfully. But from what I can remember the pricing on this initial offering is done so with two assumptions:
They successfully build neutron and start operational neutron launches no later than end of 2025 (it is planned to be launched in 2024)
Space launch market was close $10Bn in 2019, it is expected to be for bearish projection $21Bn and for bullish projection $75Bn in 2027. The rocket lab valuation assumes a market size of $32Bn by 2027 (I am writing these numbers from memory, they are not 100% exact but Iād say 95% tried to cross-check them with some wiki pages and market research)
So it was priced pretty much with these assumptions and yes price/sales price/book etc values do exist for this year, next year etc, but they are not really representative.
Another thing is (explained in one of the above videos from Scot Manley) although Neutron is āhuman capableā rocket lab has no plans to design a human space capsule at this time. Meaning itāll either use Spacex dragon or boeing starliner(if it ever gets certifiedā¦) but there are problems with width and weight numbers of these capsules and capabilities of planned neutron design.
So keep in mind this is ācapableā of human flight but it is going to be designed very much targeted for LEO constellation launches.
edit: this also says it can fail horribly they might f-up the launches of neutron etc. so it is tad bit riskier than investing in water utilities company
This is my main bear case for any space based company and for the most part stay away from them. (Repeating myself a bit) However a working flight proven product was a major contributing factor to choosing Rocket Lab.
Iām also definitely looking at it as a much longer term prospect than 12 months, more of a where could a company like this be in 10 years. There is also the bias of āI like them and their techā that Iām afraid did come into it
Iāll be very interested to see Starlink when(if) it goes public as Musk as said it would IPO as a subsidiary of SpaceX (Which heās said will not go public from the last I heard about it)
I read the presentation earlier today and it does sound like a nice idea, like most companies do via a SPAC as they can pretty much say anything.
At least they have a product and revenue which is a big plus, albeit a small amount of revenue.
It may be one to start really small to get some skin in it and DCA thereafter.
Itāll be interesting to see what happens in the sector when your Raytheonās and Boeing etc get serious on it. Or just acquire one of these start ups.
Iām not in fairness, if I was to do anything it would be FOMO for me. Iām in wait and see mode as it will inevitably have a significant dip in the future as thereās so much positivity priced in. If it doesnāt fair play and I would of maybe missed out.
Iāll also see how the company develops in the next year or so and if itās got anything about it then paying even double than itās trading at now (if earning increase obviously) then itās not the end of the world.
Iām obviously not saying Iām right as I understand why people would invest. Iām just not playing with huge capital right now so it pays to be prudent.