Your thoughts on this portfolio

I won’t comment about the portfolio itself, since besides Microsoft I wouldn’t buy any of the other companies.

About beating the market:
It’s easy and many people do… the key is consistency, if you can do it many years (sort performance basically has zero value) then you will be a very successful investor, otherwise you will be an average investor, and that’s nothing wrong on that :wink:

Another point:
It’s not because you bought something and it’s up that you’re right, the opposite as well.
Consistency on long term is what defines a good investor.
Why the majority of gamblers just stop doing sort / options / cfd after few years?
because it’s almost impossible to have consistency on that and on long term you do the math and see that a “boring investor” is beating you on that decade.

Nice pie image actually :wink:

LSE ones such as Unilever, GSK
US ones such as PG, MCD, PEP(better than all imo), Apple, Amazon(wouldn’t buy rn), Google etc… but you might just be better buying the whole index if you’re looking to lower risk and diversify!

Can I argue that Amazon and Google are very well valued at the moment?

Looked at this with @SWPhilosophy and they track EBIDTA (historically) incredibly tightly

Amazon

Google

3 Likes

Yup. The share prices for Amazon and Google track their EBITDA much more closely than they track their earnings. Last time I looked they were at-or-near them still.

Not everyone likes doing things this way. Buffett and Munger don’t like EBITDA and that’s fine for them. But if anyone’s wondering why Amazon and Google appear to be off their fundamentals, maybe try a different fundamental.

The chart for Apple looks quite different, so I personally wouldn’t buy that atm. But each to their own.

I agree, it’s nice to see those projection lines, amazon could well be 6k in a couple of years.

1 Like

Reading through all this it sounds like you’re very comfortable with your strategy and choices but perhaps wanted to run it by some likeminded investors to identify any glaring red flags, which have been called out (oil, airline) and accepted.

In response to your call for suggestion on blue chips, my only suggestion would be Prudential, as it could easily replace Lloyds in your folio and cover that part of your strategy with a bit more confidence.

Here’s also a good source for inspiration: https://www.suredividend.com/blue-chip-stocks/

As an aside @SteelCityInvestor, I presume this is not a T212 pie? Is this a self-made graphic? Reason I ask is the presence of WLKD, which got my hopes up.

1 Like

this thread reminds me why I like low cost tracking ETFs so much, picking out some random stocks to outperform the market and all the complications that come with it, tesco or sainsburys? apple or microsoft? lloyds or barclays? easyjet or something else? the list is endless and all the re-balancing and effort trying to work out which ones are best and then over time probably not beat the market anyway, not worth it. IMO overall should be 70% low cost ETF trackers and 30% stock picks.

2 Likes

(1) Tesco
(2) Tough one
(3) Neither
(4) ANYTHING else

:slight_smile:

lol that is so true. :sweat_smile:

edit: a neither for (1) for me though

That’s fair. My portfolio has neither. I just didn’t particularly want to indicate I thought they were both as bad as each other.

I would definitely say apple right now imo

I would say neither. Treat yourself to a kebab and sit on the what’s left.

1 Like

Even looking overvalued, Apple PE/Ratio is very good comparing with its peers.

1 Like

P/E doesn’t look great compared to its past self, though.

I would also say neither.

One could argue that almost every stock is overvalued considering what’s going on. And saying apple and Microsoft are overvalued is fair enough but then you compare with Tesla and maybe it isn’t so clear.

3 Likes

I think one could try to argue that. I’d be interested in hearing how that argument went?

I think value is in the eye of the beholder. As long as there is someone willing to pay a certain price, then that’s what its true value is.

Well…no.

Value is value relative to the market, historic growth and expectations.

Value is undeniable in that sense, but yeah, some people don’t mind paying a premium to get great companies - there’s a few that I’ve done this.

Key to remember I’ve paid a premium, not got great value.

I wouldn’t go far as saying every stock is overvalued, it is market of stocks, there is plenty of fair valued to undervalued.

For instance AVGO is one of the tech companies which you don’t pay premium for owning a share at present…

I rarely see people mention around here, mostly it is AAPL/AMZN/MSFT/GOOGL/FB…

Agreed, but what makes a market? If no one wants to buy at a given price then there is no value there regardless of how good the asset is.

1 Like