Time to see whose got a crystal ball here!
I appreciate this is incredibly subjective at present. That said, do you think the election result will help steady the ship?
I know this is incredibly variable, because then it is dependent on the impact of who actually wins? (I’m not too hot on politics)
Then there is the bigger picture of course when you consider COVID and the subsequent impact that is having on everyone’s lives and the market sentiment, and also GDP etc.
My opinion is that a result may not steady the ship for some time, even until everyone is used to COVID.
Thr FEDs printing to increase inflation, the Stimulus Checks being used to top up the markets and whichever President is in Office will crash it post Christmas.
People will act as normal at Christmas, increasing debt and will tell the FED to print more money and give them more stimulus…they realise they can’t give Stimulus but continue to print money.
People panick post Christmas of the debts they accumulated and start to take money out od the Stock Market, leaving a huge hole to try and fill, crashing the Housing and Employment market mid term.
That is the time when you sadly have to buy strong stocks and perhaps Payroll Companies as they try to recover Employment and change how recruitment is done as too many can’r get even simple jobs.
I predit January/February when the Market collapses and the Debt starts to be paid off by the middle classes as either Biden or Trump reluctantly have to raise Corporation Tax and regular Tax.
Election has a small short effect in the week before, this one right now that has coincided with earnings… so forget about elections, the market historically does not care at all.
The current economic and world scenarios are and always were much more important.
There’s always volatility in the buildup to the election itself. But the truth is, it really hasn’t mattered who ended up winning (whether incumbent or opposing party) that much going back 80+ years.
If COVID concerns (somehow) subside and the VIX comes down back to the mid 20s, I’d say more stable days are ahead
But for now, 2nd wave uncertainties are the main threat and how this plays out should be the deciding factor…
Strange days, market tanks around -1.2%, portfolio goes up 0.5%…
Wouldn’t mind having more of those days…
Care to share your secrets Vedran?
Maybe he owns some GOOGL. They were up today from the big caps.
Mostly having beaten down sectors, Apartment REITS, Healthcare, few beaten down old tech.
I don’t play names which had gone hyperbolic 100%+ YTD, or which are at ATH for no fundamental reasons.
Only big tech I would touch is Amazon, because of crazy growth even at current valuation, they have 30% YoY in EPS, for foreseeable future.
What are your thoughts on Marvell? The multiples seem sensible for tech and good growth forecasted
Having no clue about company, just by checking EPS growth and average P/E valuation for last 10 years.
It seems it has run ahead compared to historic premium/valuation. Average P/E in last 10 years was 18.47, current P/E is 43.96.
But it has nice growth incoming at 47% and 39% for 2021/2022.
If it could keep up this level of growth beyond, definitely would be interesting. But I already have semiconductor space filled, with AVGO/INTC.
What kills it for me on MRVL, they stopped raising dividend since 2015. That is kind of deal breaker for me personally.
That’s an interesting to know. Thanks for looking into it.
May I ask where the chart and EPS data came from?
few beaten down old tech
Intel and Cisco? Or others?
Yes, INTC, CSCO, SAP. Haven’t pulled trigger for IBM yet…
Funny thing about INTC, at current valuation. Even if it remains 11 P/E in future, and permanent growth is low single digit ie 2% YoY.
You get nice return for money. 9.5% Annualised Returns.
However if it returns to historical average P/E of 12.65 , and grows mid single digit, ie 4% YoY.
You get nice return of 15.57% Annualised returns on the money.
Also good to note, JNJ is now again near fair value, hopefully drops a bit more to fill up the position, AAA rated safe heaven.
Out of curiosity Vedran, my portfolio is pretty minor right now; however I allocate each month.
I am a bit conscious I may not be diversified enough. That said, do you think a position of say £100 is too small in companies to be meaningful?
Well the amount is not what really matters as long as it is steady invested over time. I allocate % per company/position depending on risk.
However I don’t limit myself to X or Y companies, I will buy them in small increments as long as they are priced at fair value or better. Once they are priced higher, I either add new company or add to the rest which have not reached full position or valuation went higher then fair.
Trying to get best bang for buck on each investment while still trying to spread in all industries/sectors.
Overweight REITs now, due to them mostly being -50% YTD.
Overweight REITs now,
What type of REITs?
Towers like American Tower or Crown Castle? Or more traditional ones like Realty Income?
I don’t have any in my portfolio, so I might research a few. Any ideas?
Wasn’t quick enough on Tower REITS in Marchs, since then they went over fair price.
Mostly, 3x Net , ie NNN. O is still above fair, waiting 50ish $.
ESS/EQR from Apartment REITS.
FRT as dividend King, Shopping Center REIT.
Waiting for t21 l2 to add KRC, office REIT.