Grantham interview

Wanted to share this, imho, insightful interview with you all. He articulated well what I have been ‘feeling’ the last weeks and puts it into perspective.

Cheers

Edit:
Anyone know low cost Value EM ETFs?

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I have just searched on justetf.com’s screener and I cannot find any.

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It’s far from perfect but the closest thing I can think of would be an investment trust, like JEFI, which is focused more on income than growth.

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Jupiter Emerging & Frontier Income Trust PLC:
For anyone interested, here are the top 10 stocks at 31/12/2021, with a discount to NAV of 6%. It has an Ongoing Charge of 1.35% though.

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I’d be interested to see how a basket of global high-yield ITs would get on, something like JEFI, JETI, HFEL, CTY, BRNA, CCJI and MYI. As you say, they tend to have 1%-plus charges in many cases though. Actually, HFEL or SOI could other options but they are focused on the far east rather than global emerging markets.

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I really like that site. My go to place for research alongside genuine impact.

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WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend UCITS ETF | A12HUS | IE00BQZJBM26

What do you think? Potential as we see shift from largecap US growth stocks to value in EM?

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Thanks for sharing that. This was a great interview.

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He is right on Crypto and the market currently.

Quite wary of the US market at the momemt as every stock I want is overpriced.

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Great share mate :ok_hand:

Good quote below that I believe is very true.

“The higher you bid up a growth stock, the lower the long term return. Everyday the market goes higher, you know only one thing with certainty that the long term return is less than it was the day before”

Although it’s true, there is money to be made from certain elements right now. It’s just finding that balance.

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Great interview, enjoyed that with an afternoon coffee. I dont disagree with much of that, perhaps as I am of similar thought in terms of look for value plays or undervalued stocks. However equally at my relatively young age I am not just looking at dividends and low growth stocks as may stunt portfolio growth too much.

Here statements I have read in recent months from various investors big and small:

  • Dont time the market

  • Market is inflated/bubble

  • Dividends are rubbish all about growth

  • Growth is rubbish all about dividends

  • EV is great growth market

  • EV is overinflated/bubble

  • Oil stocks are dead, renewables are the way

  • Oil stocks are undervalued

  • Banks are rubbish stocks, low interest rates bad for them

  • Inflation is coming interest may rise

  • Inflation is coming dont hold cash

  • Hold cash to buy the crash

  • DONT TIME THE MARKET…

And so on and so forth. THEY CANT ALL BE TRUE…at least not at the same time

All this leads me to think is diversification (up to a point). BUT… others say ‘diversification is bad’ haha… so all I can suggest is:

  • Have a job/income as unrelated to stock market as possible. If your married/have partner then do jobs in unrelated industries from each other (can’t change this easily but this helps, look at UK lockdown)

  • Live within your means using the income from that job

  • Invest some (10%, more if you can) into assets such as stocks.

  • Own your home with a fixed low interest rate for 2-5 years (avoid sharp shocks of interest rise if it happened)

  • Keep cash (even if inflation devaluing it) to cover you for 3-6 months.

  • Have stocks diversified and hedged enough to protect you from everything from total apocalyptic collapse, and even then have some that pay some sort of dividend and keep that cash flow in the market and reinvesting.

Who says that?

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“Diversification is a protection against ignorance” - Warren Buffet (i believe)

he did mean it in terms of if you are less experienced then maybe just index fund etc though but cant think of other quotes haha

and others have. What I meant by my list was really lots of far more intelligent people than myself have said lots of contradictory things so really only conclusion there is no 1 way to do things I guess.

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He might be probably right regarding btc. It is purely based on faith. Who is saying we cant have in 10 years a “better” btc alternative in the crypto realm?

Since institutions are widely recognizing value and potential it is only natural that more cryptos will crop up. And maybe one of them will overthrow btc. Be it based on faith or blockchaintech fundamentals or both. Not so far-fetched imo

But crypto/blockchain is here to stay. I dont see any world where we go back.

It will be interesting to see what role government regulation will (have to?) play in all this.
I have and will stick to my crypto holdings but I am very disciplined and keep strictly only as much money in the crypto market as I can stomach to lose without jumping off a bridge

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Yeah as you touch on BTC doesn’t have much of a moat other then (arguably…) brand power it being popular right now as the go to crypto, but could be mostly first mover advantage as its not the best for transaction volume and speed I believe, others then argue its a store of value but I would say it probably needs to be one or the other, its also too volatile to be a proper store of value right now.
As you say though Blockchain is here to stay as already being used for great applications in logistics and supply chains. Question is what are the barriers to stop govts creating (as they are alredy) their own digital form of national currency, argument for bitcoin or similar is it is decentralised, so I guess may support the ‘new gold’ theory but not the regular exchange of value like we use £ etc for currently.

It is hard to say, and I am by no means expert and have only limited insight.
That being said, I firmly believe a lot of the appeal in cryptos comes from the notion of decentralized power etc.

Maybe it will come down to the willingness of the masses to buy into central bank cryptos. Very foggy outlook and exciting. Many projects look good on paper but the outlook seems too idealistic/almost too good to be true. I would love a world with DEFI. The banks had their go at world economy for more than a century.
I believe we can and should do better. The question is will they go down without a fight? I doubt it.

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