Okay, I don’t know much about the company a part from that a quick search indicates that it is to do with “blockchain payment solutions”.
Assuming no debt and having one set of revenue numbers. Definitely good news if it has no debt, hopefully that also reduces the chances of dilution as well as the risk.
Without knowing revenue, growth, margins and some reasonable forecasts you can’t really come up with an intrinsic value based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF).
However, based on some assumptions you might be able to come up with your own “reasonable price forecast”. It might also be useful to then gauge how well the company is doing in the future (looking back). This is very subjective and is not an intrinsic valuation but more of a pricing.
This is how I would approach it (in the absence of data for a DCF/NPV), everyone is likely to have a different method:
I would start with the company itself and decide what date you want to evaluate it against. This could be how long in the future you think that you would be willing to hold for waiting for it to grow. Let’s assume maybe 5 years, so 2026 for the purpose of the example. I usually look at 10 years (even if I may exit much earlier, after 5 lets say), but considering how uncertain this estimate will be, due to the lack of data, I wouldn’t go much further than 2026.
You then need to come up with a revenue growth for 2022. I would probably look at their RNSs (equivalent in the USA) and depending on how much they have disclosed you might be able to see contracts or partnerships coming in the pipeline.
If you get any individual large clients you might want to look into how many payments go through them and attach a percentage “cut” that BGOX might take. Obviously quite low. I don’t know much about payment providers, but say maybe 0.05% as GBOX might just be an intermediary.
This could give you some revenue and an indicative growth that you might be able to extrapolate to 2026 (Within reason). Make sure you are comfortable with the growth in individual years.
Alternatively, if you have no idea you would just have to decide a number that you think is reasonable based on what you know. This could be based on the growth of the sector, although as it is a small company if it is successful you would be expecting larger than average growth.
What you want to be looking at is profits (or alternatively operating free cash flows), so once you decide on some revenue numbers I would probably then multiply it by some kind of “net margin percentage” (in decimal, less than 1) to come up with a profit. This could come from the companies current margin (and increasing it due to scale) or from similar companies (slightly larger ones though, maybe a mid-cap) looking at how much revenue is converted into profits.
You then select a “2026 Price to Earnings Multiple”, lets say 20 and use this to get the predicted market capitalisation. Divide it by the number of shares (current shares + insider outstanding options) and you have your predicted share price .
I think that with these companies you are to a certain extent betting on the chance of selecting “the winner” (or one of the few winners). There is a lot of risk but also the growth has to be high. I would not select a final Price to Earnings multiple of over 25 as if interest rates increase by then it is likely that we will be looking at much lower market multiples around then. Also, that would be based on it being a very high growth company, if you are expecting it to grow by less than 25% year on year in 2026, then it is probably best not to use a multiple of more than around 18 ish to be safe.
Note: If you had more information I would probably suggest trying to come up with a basic Discounted Cash Flow model going further into the future (not just 2026). Once a full years worth of reasonable data and some future forecasts you can probably give it a try. It might be possible once you get an annual report.
Note 2: Something worth noting is that you might be able to find forecasts in the press or from analysts, maybe not now but in a few months time. If not, why not drop them an email and ask them for any guidance that they can provide or that they may have provided in the past and that you may have missed?
You have nothing to lose.
Were they reviously known as “Mzgroup”? Otherwise it is a very surprising email domain.