Airlines good buy time?

Dont see many people talking about the travel industry what ya think is airlines a good long term hold. There still cheap right now .

Hi,
Good point. I think the airlines are a good buy and hold. I guess when we have a good news about treatments/Vaccine they should react in a very good way.

Not just yet for me. With schools going back, I think we will see covid round 2 to some extent. I have a cruise and airline pie ready to go though which I’m going to start loading up hopefully around Halloween.

I agree, too soon. Need to see what winter holds.

Most airlines have predicted that it will take to 2024 until their operations are at full level again. I wouldn’t be surprised if one or more of them will go bankrupt next year.

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They are making little money during autumn/winter season in normal times (end of December and beginning of January is an exception). So there is still space for them to dive deeper.

IMHO, the future is still obscure for this industry along with Cruiselines, Hotels and Casinos considering the threat of a 2nd wave. Having said that, should any of the vaxx companies gets approved, these industries could go parabolic overnight which, if we don’t have any position, would potential miss out on potential huge gains. I had IAG, UAL, AA, NCLH 4 months ago but decided to sell. Currently bag-holding MNZS as after-vaccine approval announcement, post-COVID play.

You want to get in there a little early because by the time the news of a vaccines comes out they will rip…

P.S. the cruise lines are better than airlines, they need less occupancy to be profitable (compared to airlines) and also have more revenue streams

Don’t think so. Lot of airlines have fired a lot of people. Also they have trouble filling planes, because a lot of people don’t want to fly just now. Even with a vaccine, this will take a long time to recover. Second wave is coming this autumn/winter.

I’ve bet on one and one only. long term it will pay off I think but I’m willing to wait years.

Maybe you can cost average it.

Wizz air is the best airline to invest in, I would say, I sold out at 36p though due to potential 2nd wave. I will definitely reinvest when price drops 30p.

I have invested in couple of airlines, a cruise company, and a hotel so far.

One point is that they don’t need to return to pre-covid prices for you to profit. It is easy to get a ~ 20% profit when you buy at a very low price.

Also, although I invested for the long term, I enjoy profiting absurd jumps in prices such as 10% increase in a day when there is some small news about vaccines. So, I sell parts of my stocks during this abnormal jumps and buy again in next week or so when prices go back to previous levels.

If you just want to buy once and keep, you can expect that the prices might decrease further following weeks/months, but it is hard to predict and time this. If you want to invest, investing in parts and cost averaging could be a good idea. Or you can also benefit from volatility of prices in short term. When you are ready to hold for long term and expect prices to double/triple, i.e. go back to normal, in following years, the worst thing that can happen with short term plays is you could buy at relatively high price right now, but it would not matter much when prices go back to pre-covid levels.

About which companies to invest, I think best strategy is to select companies with best financials among the most popular ones. So you can bet that the company would not probably bankrupt and they would benefit quickly due to their popularity when people start using airlines, cruises, and hotels.

Anecdotally, I was in Cork airport, Schiphol airport, and Koln airport recently and they were basically empty. Nowhere near as high capacity as before.