Hi Guys I think its fair to say that over the last year alot of us have done very well with our portfolio’s. I myself am kinda overwhelmed with how respectable my gains have been over the last year.
And although we can be arrogant and attribute these gains as “good investment” decisions. In my opinion investment returns are credible when achieved over several years of consistent and careful investing. Just because something goes up or down even for a long time doesn’t make it a gd or bad investment.
The conditions of these gains is something I have been aiming for over a multi year period and the returns have been outstanding month over month this year. Anyone who has a good grasp of economics and investing knows why this is (favourable monetary policy, huge spike in retail investor interest, etc).
In my opinion I do not see anything actually slowing down the equity market in the short term but I do agree that there is an asset bubble. No one knows if the market is going to crash or correct or statically wait for corporate earnings to catch up and anyone saying they know when a crash/correction will happen is frankly moronic. Obviously there is always a catalyst whether that’s a rise in interest rates or poor economic data after most economy’s reopen (unlikely). But even so most of the time the economy doesn’t directly correlate with equity. In fact I personally believe if you can be objective, scary economic data (especially in the news) or bad company press that doesnt impact a companies ability to grow and maintain/grow free cashflow can be fantastic opportunity to invest.
I’m a strong believer of aiming for moderate and consistent gains (I don’t aim for 20%+ plus returns per year) and as a retail investor i should stay in my lane and invest in industries, countries and companies i have a very good understanding of and buying in at a fair price.
Naturally psychology can heavily impact our investing decisions and recently I have realised that I am become more anxious about my investments partly because it has done so well. I wanted to know what other thinks about this topic.
Also I am looking into educating myself more into investing psychology and behavioural economics. As investing is also about understanding market behaviour. One particular area which is interesting is about the idea of market Reflexivity - how feedback loops positive or negative effects companies growth and valuation.
Sorry this was a bit of rambling on but I feel like this isn’t talked about alot.
What do you guys think overall about the market right now ?
Also what do you guys think of market reflexivity (George Soros) its a very interesting idea and if you haven’t read up on it, I highly recommend it for any serious retail investor.