British Petroleum (BP) - any opinions/thoughts?

[Hbomb]

Here were my views couple months back last earnings (from the Shell thread):

@Hbomb

As the unofficial ‘oil and gas’ thread I will post a brief bit about BPs earnings here:

from BBC -
Bernard Looney told Reuters that the oil giant was “a cash machine at these sort of prices”

from BP earnings document:
Q3

• $3.3bn profit (up from $2.8bn in Q2)
• Net debt reduced further to $32bn from $32.7bn in Q2 and $40bn a year ago.
• Dividend for Q3 still at the Q2 level (4% raise on last years quarterly divs) of $0.0546 working out to a 4.6% yield on 350p share price.
• $0.9bn Buybacks in Q3 ($0.5bn in Q2)

Shareholder returns going forward:

• They have announced further $1.25bn buybacks for this coming quarter (roughly 1.3% of share count at 350p share price).
• Dividend maintained at same level (4.6% annual yield on 350p)

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Speculative valuation thoughts:
TTM P/E now around 11
Next quarter likely be down at 8 P/E if share price constant at 350p, if P/E 11 maintained with anticipated earnings for Q4 then upside of 30%+ potential to 450p+.

Clearly todays 3% share price drop currently is a result of investors who wanted further dividend growth, I am actually happier they are plowing into buybacks whilst the stock is in this price range. If oil and gas dont have massive pullbacks then I see BP as a 400p+ stock within 3-6 months (15% further upside) with another 2.5-5% shareholder returns of 3-6months buybacks/divs.

So obviously we have hit over 400p (and did briefly in Jan this year anyway) so I think earnings next week will be next big thing, key things to look out for:

• Dividend raise announcements (above the 4% annual raise).
• Further buybacks
• Average oil/gas price realised (Q3 was $74, Q4 should be high $70s pushing $80 I guess)

I also like to look out for their renewables pipeline and capacity, as well as how their EV charging buildout is going. Rosneft and Customers & Products sections are worth keeping eye on too.