CINE fall like the devil

Hi mates,

Do you know what’s going on with Cineworld Group ?

I noticed that they fall down in US, but how about other countries ?

CINE set up at london stock exchange, so even they fall I’ll save my shares, or lose it ?

Cheers

They’re likely going bust

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They’re filing for bankruptcy, probably a restructuring. If that happens, I’d be amazed if you didn’t get wiped out.

What will happen with shares… Gone too?

Yeah, they’ll likely be gone as part of the restructuring.

So who is buying :upside_down_face:

Some more unnecessary characters.

It’s a bit of a pint but their cash flows pre covid were good. Sufficient to finance the debt with a 20-30% drop give or take. Just need to fire some management and restructure.

What big films are due out? Cashflows depend on this.

Yep, that’s the issue.

Who buy it right now, charity association’s ?

Too much debt, outlook weak in times of subscriptions. I think they will go bust

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My speculation AMC might be able to buy CINE (strategic fit) but am guessing the current level of debt would be a big put off

Mr Musk maybe too, he sure likes uncorrelated business

AMC has enough troubles trying to survive.

So what should do now, lost - 49% hold, or sell ?

Personally I would stir clear of bankrupt businesses. It kinda defeats the whole purpose of this “investing” thing.

Some people (and for some reason, vastly retail) do like to invest in bankrupt/potentially bankrupt businesses.

For one, there tend to a higher volatility when the market cap get shrinked to a few $M, so it’s not uncommon to make some 100%+ in a few days with such stocks.

Then, bankruptcy isn’t necessarily the end of the road. Granted, the vast majority of bankruptcies completely wipe out shareholders, and render the shares null and void; with a new class of share being issued as part of the restructuring.
But not always.

As an example, we can cite Hertz with COVID, that went into restructuring with the plan of voiding their initial shares; people bought quite heavily after they entered bankruptcy, and they ended up making a killing. Debt got restructured, original shares stayed in place.

An other example of a bankruptcy going well, but sadly the equity holder already got wiped out; Lehman Brothers is finishing their bankruptcy process. It has been a very long and complex process, and in the meantime, most of their MBS assets that put them under; turned out to be worth a fair bit more than during the GFC. Equity holders are out AFAIK, but debt holders are getting a payout of some 130% of their original claim, which would have left room to pay a decent amount out to shareholders.

TLDR: just get the f*** out already :person_shrugging:

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So to summarise - look for businesses that thrive, not businesses that survive.

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That’s true, but where I can find some infos before collapse ?

As someone said. No pain no gain :slight_smile: