Hello you wonderful and amazing individuals that make up these forums. I sincerely hope you are having a pleasant day.
I know the S&P 500 has had a difficult year in 2022 and we have had a short rally in 2023. I kindly wondered please how the economy cycles work and when an official bull rally is declared. For instance if interest rates have peaked and nothing further is announced on the 1st November 2023 is this a good sign for the economy please? Is there anything else to kindly consider and when we could expect some indicators for a bull rally please? If anyone please had any thoughts on this i would be forever grateful and thankful for your support with this it would mean the world to me.
Sending you lots of good wishes and hope you have a fabulous week. Thanks to all the people who are supportive and helpful on these forums you are all spectacular. It has been enormously helpful while i continue my learning about Value Investing. Very best wishes and take care.
I’m recently started to learn more about the market cycles. First what you should know is that there are a leading and lagging economic indicators. Stock market is considered as leading economic indicator because people will always try to forecast and predict the future and time the market. Other leading indicators can confirm and in short term predict the overall market direction.
What I understand the indicators are more like signs of “where” whe are in economic cycle currently if we consider a few months period, and it is wery hard to predict when the bull market starts - it is more like we know that bull is aproaching so we get ready for it, but we will not know immediately whe he will get us on his horns - so you can get to early or too late.
As I know one of the best indicators predicting recesions is bond yield curve, I encourage you to read about it as soon as possible, because it not long ago gave new signal of incoming recession