I need help with my portfolio

The same people say it’s statistically safer to just invest in the S&P as most people can’t pick stocks well. I’d rather stick with stocks that give me 700% in less than 12 months, thanks.

Sigh! It isn’t a case of people looking down on millennials (though boasting about swanning off into the sunset doesn’t help) but cautioning that you’re taking a very risky strategy that historically doesn’t pay off. You might get lucky with timing but that doesn’t mean that you’ve really understood the markets rather than just been lucky. Being lucky is of course a good thing!

Bits of what you are saying are correct ie if you really understand a stock then that does allow you to focus on a less diversified portfolio but let’s not fool ourselves that it isn’t a much riskier strategy as most people won’t properly understand the stock in sufficient detail.

Tesla is an interesting one because I think that there are good reasons to invest in it but it is difficult to justify on any sort of numerical analysis basis. So non-financial knowledge is useful but also more subjective. That is starting to get closer to gambling that a share price will continue to increase - that may be an educated decision/guess but it is still risky.

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@sampg2579

The answer to your question is solely on you.

Do you plan to be active investor or passive?

Active as in invest time to do monthly research’s on companies invested?
Or as passive investor you just want to put money in and let it grow ower years?

If active is your call, then you need a lot of DD and study, almost like 2nd job.

Otherwise just take few ETFs and set it to autoinvest, dont look at it for 5-10 years :slight_smile:

Not quite - it isn’t just that some people can’t pick stocks well it is that most/all people can’t pick stocks well.

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Trust me, you can’t use reason here.

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Are any of my stocks I have money in a good buy and maybe hold onto? If not what are the best etfs to have and how many?

nobody knows this, newsflash stock prices are random, so no point asking anyone

The yacht comment was obviously tongue in cheek (no matter how likely :wink: )

Perhaps most people can’t research a stock in sufficient detail but that doesn’t mean a smaller portfolio of stocks you have a high conviction in, held over many years, isn’t the safer way of doing things. I say safer, I also balance that with trying to make a good return. The safest by diversification standards would be something like an all world index but good luck making strong returns with that.

I agree that Tesla can’t be judged using conventional methods, that’s why I’m saying the game has changed.

I would consider a lot of your stocks good buys tbh
There’s a few I wouldn’t touch and a few I think could go either way but overall not bad

Literally all you’ve said is “lol at millennials”, “teach me about innovation as I can’t be bothered to search for myself” and “I love value investing”

Nah, I want to see with eyes of optimist.

I am pesimist. So obviously good thing is to see from perspective of “enemy”. Right?

Scientifically the best to do is to invest consistently into a well diversified portfolio. You said your time horizon is 5-10 years, so over that period just going with some broad ETF’s (SP500, world, etc.) would have the best chance of being the best option over that time frame.

An often overlooked part is investor psychology, and that’s the most difficult (and maybe even most important) part. If you have a low risk tolerance having a risky portfolio, even with high expected returns over longer periods of time, could yield you pretty bad returns due to selling stocks at the wrong moment. The difference in performance between a 30 individual stock portfolio and an broad ETF is small. But if the 30 individual stocks give you more motivation to invest or more resilience to selling (you might then know better what you own preventing you from panicking) then that might be the better option.

This is comparable to the debt payoff psychology, theoretically it’s best to pay of the highest interest rate debts first but in practice most people succeed in paying of their debt if they pay of the debts which give them the most guild/embarrassment (family loans etc.) even though that theoretically isn’t the best way to go.

In the end the decision is yours to invest in a portfolio of which you have a high conviction and with which you can still sleep at night.

(assuming you have an emergency fund, no high interest debt etc.)

Again, I don’t know what you’re referring to with that response.

If you’re talking about learning about innovation from me, then I referred you to people equally as optimistic as I am

While I agree with where you come from.

One thing needs to be looked at.
5-10 years is low span.

In current valuations it might take far longer then 5-10 years to get decent returns even with broad index.

If you check S&P valuation, highest it has ever been from the median. So we might very likely have a lost decade ahead of us from index perspective


But anyway if OP will DCA along the way it will pay in “dividends” later on. Just that it might be challenging to have red for quiet some time. A possible scenario that is.

Try exploring and analysing:

Vanguard FTSE All-World

ish MSCI ACWI (All country World Index) USD (Expense ratio is higher)
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239600/ishares-msci-acwi-etf

XTrackers MSCI USA Information Technology GBX

Thankyou everyone for taking time to help with this it’s really helped , the way I’m kind of thinking now is to maybe get rid of the pies I have because there’s no control really and maybe keep the stocks I’ve been more interested in and build on them ? Like maybe 8-10 stocks? And really keep an eye on them???

I agree with you that 5 years is pretty short, and under normal circumstances, some bonds should be an option to consider with such a time span. The problem is that the bond yields are pretty low right now.

If you check S&P valuation, highest it has ever been from the median.

The valuation is indeed pretty high, but we also must take into account that earnings dropped and stimulus/QE forced money into the market creating the higher valuations (note that the valuation also spiked just after the GFC because earnings look backwards and prices forward).

So we might very likely have a lost decade ahead of us from index perspective


We simply don’t know but it’s always is a possibility, but are there any alternatives? Picking stocks might or might not be a solution and bonds with current yields will not help too much.

If I remember correctly (am too lazy to look it up rn :grinning:) but didn’t the 5 year minimum for stocks come from the longest period of time before stocks reached a new all-time high from their earlier high (great depression) and thus the 5-year minimum? Taking that into account how likely is it that another lost period happens which is even longer (especially as governments have become better at combatting crisises). But we’ll see, the longer the time period the better.

I personally always take the worst scenario. Dot.com.

MSFT from 2000-2015 without dividend reinvested.

Bonds definitely don’t look attractive.

There is however value in individual stocks. So I guess mix of 40-80 % index 60-20%% individual stocks based on how much free time individual has to spare. Wouldn’t go full on with any single strategy.

how did you get my portfolio allocations? :joy: I’m ~40% broad market ETF’s and 60% individual stocks (a whopping 48 of them)

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A lot of arm chair experts here lol
The thing I find is most people are always saying this method is better that method is better but they never really show a newbie what they do or have.
I’m no expert myself but I do find it a little frustrating reading done comments on here.
The thread was started by a newbie asking about getting some help and as far as I’ve seen it’s not really helped him.
Those who are the better investor with done or lots of experience know what I am saying.
Maybe the answer is to join a Patreon and then answers will be answered.
Nothing is free in this world.
Good luck

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