I was wondering what are people opinions on lithium and how it has been going on a bearish mood loosing 50% in the last year (the exact opposite of Uranium!).
I’m following SQM, ALB, SLI, LAC and the LIT ETF. All have very similar price progession in the last ~2 years, and look like it might keep going down, maybe to 2019 levels, as demand for EVs is diminishing and new deposits are found.
I won’t support nuclear energy, as I see it shortsighted and risky, for environment, society, future…
Also anything that allows enrichment to build dirty bombs is something I don’t want to support.
That being said if I look around there is probably little alternative to base line electricity production. But I don’t see it as the lesser but the greater evil. It’s a very complicated topic. Anything one could say in this thread would just come short
Nuclear isn’t one of the cleanest energy sources. One could say that it doesn’t have carbon emissions/GHG, but it’s one of most dirtier, with radiation contamination for thousands of years. People won’t die from climate change and carbon emissions but will die from radiation.
People tend to forget or simply don’t know the nuclear disasters that happened and their consequences. Even today, a couple of decades after, some regions are contaminated for living beings (e.g. Chernobyl disaster (1986)). Fukushima (2011) nuclear plant is releasing/released contaminated water to the Pacific Ocean.
In common with lithium, it has also mining problems (pollution, social/labor exploration, etc), transportation, transformation, disposal (final life).
I understand your concerns about nuclear. Personally I’m not against using it for electricity generation. I completely support anybody who wants to invest according to their own ethical and moral beliefs. I would never invest in tobacco and try to avoid several companies because I don’t like their corporate ethos etc.
In 1 word - undervalued. I’m in ALB and am loading the boat! The TAM on this is enormous and despite EV’s and ESG taking a relative hammering atm alternatives to fossil fuel guzzlers are the way to go medium to long-term.
I agree with you. From the companies I’ve been checking ALB looks like the one it’s best positioned for when the bounce happens.
The question still remains: will lithium still keep going down? I’m speculating that pricess will keep going down for another 10-15% (to oct 2020 levels) before they stabilize and slowly (but surely) increase.
I have to say I watch far too many YT channels and Podcasts re lithium, Money of Mine, RK Equities Rock Stock Channel, Crux Investor, The Global Lithium Podcast, Recharge by Battery Mineral Reviews. The consensus is that Lithium prices are at OR NEAR the bottom, it’s currently at a price where some mines won’t get funding to get into productions, which in the the long run could well cause future shortage and high prices. To address your question the industry voices above are saying the reason for the current low prices is that Spodumene/SC6 from Africa wasn’t included in their projections, the high price also meant that it was profitable to produce Lithium from Lepidolite from within China, which has now reduced due to the low prices. The third factor was that the Chinese producers overstocked on SC6 and didn’t need to buy, leading to a drop in prices. It is BELIEVED that the stock piles are now running down and once the Chinese New Year celebrations are over that a new round of purchases will be forthcoming.
I recommend all the above for reference, that is where my information is sourced (and summarised). The next questions to be answered is when will the price start to recover and what will the price be, no one is really sticking their nose out at the moment but all say it has to go higher soon. In one respect the current low lithium prices is a good thing, as there is no point in developing sodium batteries (unless application specific) to reduce the TAM.