Thoughts on Xpeng (XPEV)?

Tesla sued almost everyone who had access to autopilot software prior to leaving and joining another company. Here is another high profile one: Tesla withdraws lawsuit against former Autopilot head, gets $100k in settlement - The Verge

at the end of investigation tesla’s auditor did not find any wrongdoing and this ended up just costing lots of money to both companies and making lawyers rich :upside_down_face:

moral of the story, Law suits mean little to nothing especially when they are based in United States.

:point_up: this is an excellent point, wish everyone was doing some sort of sale/price judgement call before buying something. This point would’ve been more profound if you haven’t recommended Tesla 2 lines below. Before you get offended because I said something about Tesla, I’d like to remind you, I’ve pointed out the IPO is on the expensive side before IPO right there

I am worried about the pricing of all EV companies at the moment, everyone is locked on to the hype of share price gains and did not look at the math for how many centuries it’ll take to get ROI on these premium investments.

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Plus points on Xpeng: china :cn: want EV to takeover from ICE

*20million odd new car sales in China.
*prices pegged 300,000 yuan ($42,376). EV credit
*China governent want 30% target of EV cars
*addressable market 6 million EV car sales.

Xpeng potential sales: potential range from:
1% market 60,000 cars a year
10% market 600,000 cars a year

*Xpeng have runway. investor money so their not going bankrupt. (Ipo)
*co-owners Heng and He Tao, were senior executives of Guangzhou Automobile Group, a large government-controlled automaker. (Links Chinese Government)

  • building car factory in Guangdong Province next .Guangzhou Automobile Group factory.
  • plus++ have source code for Tesla autopilot

Marketing:
Chinese people know the name Tesla hence;
*company slogan better, faster, cheaper than Tesla.

Product: copy of model3
When in fact both Chinese Tesla m3 and Xpeng p7 are the same comparable.

  • EV range real world. Same
  • Both cars have Autopilot.
  • P7 slightly slower to accelerate,but still good EV acceleration.
  • build quality ? Warranty ?

Question is will a Chinese consumer buy a copy of Tesla which is priced the same, same range, ect

*Margin. Tesla have 26% margin. Xpeng?
*Tesla went through production hell ramping model3.

Summary:
*Lots of risk.
*Over valued
*big addressable market in China
*Chinese government want EV over ICE

  • I would buy it at $5 to $7

I would buy it at $5 to $7

It wont go under $10 unless NIO, LI and TSLA halve in value from their current levels. Now there are listed peers prices can be compared and money reallocated. Even from a pure fundamental level its difficult to price, XPEV is earlier in its development stage even than NIO, and NIO have only starting posting positive gross margin last quarter. Remember TSLA trading at the $40bn range up til last year? Well there is a likelihood of them posting net profit of a couple billion dollars this year, which means they were only trading at 15-30 forward year earnings (yet people still called it expensive). The stock price is a discounting mechanism and the market must be seeing very large potential for the mid-segment XPEV are going for and ignoring the lower margins those vehicles will produce.

What a great company and stock they just revealed design for flying car as well.

Stock is up 7% today and will continue to grow.