2022 Predictions for the market

Lets have a light hearted look at what we think will happen next year in investing, could be trends you think will happen/reverse, stocks you think will do well/badly.

A couple of predictions on some of my holdings:

  • Unilever will outperform the S&P 500 index in total return.
  • Amazon will break $4000 (or equivalent if it splits) and end year above that level.
  • Boston Omaha book value will increase above $20, so about a 18% uplift to most recent quarter.
  • BP will be back above 400p

What you all got?

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  • FTSE250 will outperform the NASDAQ.
  • ARM will relist directly on the LSE.
  • BABA will recover to about $175.
  • BIDS will turn profitable.
  • MNTN and TEEC will have deployed 80% + capital.
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Someone buys ASOS or Boohoo
Someone buys Allbirds
Someone buys Nano-X
Someone buys Silvergate Capital

I see taper followed by a weak 2022 with even weaker outlook.

Big parts of the overall market still outlandishly overpriced and primed for correction. Tapering and weaker economic data will be the trigger.

Commodity supercycle on the horizon?

UK markets quite unloved, imo unjustly so, but I dont believe that will change anytime soon. I think this is seeded in BJ, PostBrexit and general sentiment

Kefi Gold and Copper will rerate to 3p minimum

I am a noob and will probably remain so. dyor.

I don’t think so. Supply chain issues are still problematic.

I believe inflation will rise and it will not be at all ‘transitory’ as The Fed said. I can see it lasting a hell of a lot longer than they let on; and I can see the average targets becoming higher and higher over time - 2% to 2.5% to 3% etc. as actual inflation figures continue to rise upwards. I believe The Fed will continue to prop up the economy, and over inflated stocks will become more inflated, particularly those not reliant on supply chain; i.e. tech players.

Just my opinion, and I do hold all the FAGMAN stocks except Netflix.

UK small cap to make world beating returns again (even more than US big tech)… Like the were doing up until last couple of months :sob:

Also more more and more UK stocks to get bought

Clinigen
Blue prism
Playtech
BT
Vodafone
A bank… maybe metro or virgin money
Meggit
Stagecoach
Bacanora lithium
Supermarket like Sainsbury or tate and Lyle
Ultra electronic
Entain

Bloody hell come to think of it bargain basement sell off Britain on the cheap… get ready guys

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RDSB will hit £25
Ted baker might get bought out
Tesla will crash to about $400
Bitcoin will lose most of its value

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That’s quite the prediction

Wow thats a 50% upside, if that happens BP would likely be above 500p, that alone would probably mean my portfolio beat the S&P :rofl: My 400p estimate looks pedestrian now haha.

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Robin hood will trade 48 Baba 186’ in January2021.
Tesla back to 850, Nio 66, xpeng 45, rolls Royce 93, polestar 45.

Let us unite and ask for good fortune from the oil deities. It will come, have faith brother.

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Fantastic topic, subscribed!

I expect the madness that started in Q2 2020 will extend to Q2 2022 - markets will continue to go up in general, despite higher “dips”.

As we can see during the past two weeks - so many of the “retail favourites” are tanking - this trend will continue through the next quarters and is a sign that the music is already slowing down.

It will inevitably stop, I predict in Q3 2022.

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So to update mine now we have end of year prices:

  • Unilever (3945p) will outperform the S&P 500 index (VUSA = £67.09) in total return.
  • Amazon ($3,334) will break $4000 (or equivalent if it splits) and end year above that level.
  • Boston Omaha book value ($17) will increase above $20, so about a 18% uplift to most recent quarter.
  • BP (330p) will be back above 400p

Lets also add:

  • Alibaba 9988.HK (119 HKD) will be back above 180 HKD
  • Activision Blizzard ATVI ($66) will be back above $80.
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Lol I’m taking the other side of those positions. Bitcoin will go down only to gain even more value and Tesla will climb even higher. Lol if I am wrong I will at least know that you took my money hahah

I like your $bomn one - with sky harbour I think you will be correct.

I’ll go with $nni will benefit from Hudl going public - it will happen one day…

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Yep I don’t really make price predictions of Boston Omaha as who knows what the market thinks of them but feel it’s book value was/is suppressed due to short term investments in YSAC etc which will help their book value long once public this year.

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2 of my 6 2022 predictions are true it seems, as of Jan 18th BP hit just over 400p this morning and it looks like Activision is being bought by Microsoft for $95 a share.

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Are you planning to sell BP or still undervalued?

Am up 36% & 39% on HL- BP & shell with one lump sum buy in April 2020, cant do profit taking due to £11.95 fees

Does that mean your positions there are worthless due to the fees, or that you would need to sell the holding in full to lessen the impact of fees?

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Not planning to currently, as I see energy strong throughout 2022, oil supply cant get fixed in matter of weeks. I think at 450p+ I would start to consider, but actually hope we get there a bit more steady than this massive surge. As BP uses RC profit not the headline net profit due to various factors I feel some are probably still undervaluing BP, also oil price now impacts earnings which are months away so holding for now. Now if some other holdings has a massive drop and need cash, that might be another matter but I have been trimming some other holdings for this not BP right now.

Yeah fees suck, I would say work out the minimum amount of chunks you can sell it in to minimize fees.

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