2022 Predictions for the market

Let us unite and ask for good fortune from the oil deities. It will come, have faith brother.

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Fantastic topic, subscribed!

I expect the madness that started in Q2 2020 will extend to Q2 2022 - markets will continue to go up in general, despite higher “dips”.

As we can see during the past two weeks - so many of the “retail favourites” are tanking - this trend will continue through the next quarters and is a sign that the music is already slowing down.

It will inevitably stop, I predict in Q3 2022.

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So to update mine now we have end of year prices:

  • Unilever (3945p) will outperform the S&P 500 index (VUSA = £67.09) in total return.
  • Amazon ($3,334) will break $4000 (or equivalent if it splits) and end year above that level.
  • Boston Omaha book value ($17) will increase above $20, so about a 18% uplift to most recent quarter.
  • BP (330p) will be back above 400p

Lets also add:

  • Alibaba 9988.HK (119 HKD) will be back above 180 HKD
  • Activision Blizzard ATVI ($66) will be back above $80.
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Lol I’m taking the other side of those positions. Bitcoin will go down only to gain even more value and Tesla will climb even higher. Lol if I am wrong I will at least know that you took my money hahah

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I like your $bomn one - with sky harbour I think you will be correct.

I’ll go with $nni will benefit from Hudl going public - it will happen one day…

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Yep I don’t really make price predictions of Boston Omaha as who knows what the market thinks of them but feel it’s book value was/is suppressed due to short term investments in YSAC etc which will help their book value long once public this year.

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2 of my 6 2022 predictions are true it seems, as of Jan 18th BP hit just over 400p this morning and it looks like Activision is being bought by Microsoft for $95 a share.

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Are you planning to sell BP or still undervalued?

Am up 36% & 39% on HL- BP & shell with one lump sum buy in April 2020, cant do profit taking due to £11.95 fees

Does that mean your positions there are worthless due to the fees, or that you would need to sell the holding in full to lessen the impact of fees?

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Not planning to currently, as I see energy strong throughout 2022, oil supply cant get fixed in matter of weeks. I think at 450p+ I would start to consider, but actually hope we get there a bit more steady than this massive surge. As BP uses RC profit not the headline net profit due to various factors I feel some are probably still undervaluing BP, also oil price now impacts earnings which are months away so holding for now. Now if some other holdings has a massive drop and need cash, that might be another matter but I have been trimming some other holdings for this not BP right now.

Yeah fees suck, I would say work out the minimum amount of chunks you can sell it in to minimize fees.

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@Dougal1984 yeah i will need to sell loads to lessen the impact on profit taking and if i need to increase my position in future when i think the market has overreacted that’s another set of fees.

i agree with @Hbomb fees sucks and actually stings, HL really needs to wake up and bring down their individual stock trading fees even though i understand they are operating on a different customer focus to T212

My prediction today. SOFI (Sofi technology, inc) will rise at least 15%+ today :smiley: :smiley:
ATVI (Activision Bizzard) will consinue rising today :grin: :grin:

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Ted Baker announcement on potential offer!

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I thought i bump up this thread so we can review and add more predictions :wink:

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Well, here is an update on mine, broadly speaking if you had equal weighted investment in these 6 you would be down a few % YTD, so outperform S&P by circa 15%:

Achieved or on course too:
Unilever (3945p) will outperform the S&P 500 index (VUSA = £67.09) in total return.

  • Currently beating VUSA by about 5%, however about 10% of VUSA return is currency spread (GBP ETF but with USD holdings), S&P is down -15% on Unilever YTD currency taken out.

BP (330p) will be back above 400p

  • Achieved in January, and has stay above or close much of the year (currently have exited this position anyway).

Activision Blizzard ATVI ($66) will be back above $80.

  • Went well above on Microsoft acquisition, has drifted below since, but acquisition price is $95, nice arb opportunity.

Verdict is still out:
Alibaba 9988.HK (119 HKD) will be back above 180 HKD

  • I think this could still well happen if relations thaw a bit or as sanctions ease and sentiment to China changes.

Amazon ($3,334) will break $4000 (or equivalent if it splits) and end year above that level.

  • Unlikely to happen this year now I would say.

Boston Omaha book value ($17) will increase above $20, so about a 18% uplift to most recent quarter.

  • Partly overzealous perhaps and partly due to how they will account for Sky Harbour holding using equity method which means it will actually drag down on their book value even if share price moves up as its profit linked.

For what it’s worth, I’m still silently loading up and bullish on BABA. It’s a sleeping giant. The media is blowing the Sino-American relations story up a little too much.

Am predicting some sort of cease fire or resolution in the Russia - Ukraine war by 31st December 2022

I have just come across this thread as I´m catching up on a lot of unread threads over the last 2-3 months and I have realised that I had an “unsent prediction” written up.
The prediction is completely off, but in the interest of contributing I will post it either way - I have not editted it.

Predictions:

  • Zepp Health to go from around 5 USD to over 7 USD
  • Bristol Myers Squibb including dividends to outperform the S&P500
  • Organon to go from around 32 USD to 40 USD

I think only 1 of my 3 predictions is looking good at the moment, we will see at the end of the year!

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@Hbomb do you wanna do the honours and open up a 2023 stock market prediction thread?

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Done 2023 Predictions for the market

:smiley:

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