Amplitude (AMPL) 📊 - Stock

I think I just bought my favourite growth stock:

The stock price crushed 52% after yesterday’s earnings, despite topping revenue expectations (64%), the spectacular growth expectations. The sell-off was triggered by weaker than expected guidance for 2022 - just 35-40% growth instead of the analyst consensus of 41%.

In my humble opinion - this is a textbook overreaction of the market and excellent opportunity.
So I jumped @ $19.83. It closed at $17.09. :smiling_face_with_tear:

About Amplitude: the company provides the best in class behavioural analytics tools. Personally I am a user of their product and I don’t think anything comes close. Their customers are SaaS businesses who pay annual subscription for Amplitude’s product analytics to help them leverage their data and understand how customers interact with their product.

I remember somebody was complaining in a post and listed all the network requests his T212 app was making - I couldn’t help but notice that Trading 212 also uses Amplitude.

Disclaimer/Warning: this is not an investment advice and I am not a financial advisor. I wrote the post after I bought some stock of Amplitude, so I would naturally speak favourably about it.
Investing is risky, investing in individual stocks is riskier, and investing in growth stocks involves even more risks. Do your own analysis before deciding to invest in this stock.
Thank you for reading! :upside_down_face:


Is this a rival to Palantir?

I’m not invested in either, but might get in one of them at these prices.

No, they are not rivals. Amplitude is focused on Product Analytics and behavioural analytics (but again only in product context) - and data you would feed to Amplitude is your own first party data.

Palantir is another beast, used for another purposes. I own both stocks.

Amplitude’s price started recovery today (+15%).

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I had a quick look. It seems to be priced at around 10 times sales…
I guess that it would probably need to grow at 40% for several years before it can actually get to a reasonable price of around 20 times free cash flow, and that would be assuming good margins.

It seems lik a lot of cash is used in research so I guess it could payoff if either the research produces something revolutionary or the research investment as a percentage of revenues comes down over time and therefore margins expand a lot.

Without knowing much it feels like quite risky.

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Is that ‘About Amplitude’ section your own experience or is that taken from the internet? I use Amplitude and it’s pretty good, but I don’t think I would say it is best in class. There are other tools with different/better functionality. Indeed there are some things Amplitude does really well which other tools don’t however.

Yesterday morning it was 8 times sales, but then closed at + ~21% :smiley:
It is risky, of course. They grew 64% last year, I think they will continue to grow +35% on average.

My own subjective experience. I’ve compared it with MixPanel Analytics.
Have you head of or used ClearBrain? It was a startup I was working with, it was providing machine learning-as-a-service. Amplitude acquired them recently and started incorporating them in the product. I believe this would give them an edge in the space - two of the companies I respected and loved merged.

P.S. I will edit my initial post to include some “This is not an investment advice warnings”, now that I reread it, it sounds too encouraging. Thanks @EquityInvestor and @obrienciaran!


Got it, I’m going all in. (Just joking).

I never heard of ClearBrain but ill check them out. One thing i found Amplitude does particularly well is visualisation of the customer/user journey from landing on your website to making a purchase. This type of funnel analytics is highly veneficial to any e-commerce or SaaS companies and ive yet to find anybody who does it better than Amplitude.

As for other analytics and visualisations though, I couldnt really say they have an edge over their competitors. I would be curious to see how the ML integrations improve their product though.

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