Fun Poll(AMZN/BABA/TSLA)

šŸ“Š Investing
1
Investment Choice
  • AMZN
  • BABA
  • TSLA

0 voters

So for fun, I will present each company ā€œforecastedā€ growth.
Now you may choose to ignore graphs presented.
Anyway Picked 3 names even though there is plenty of other Hyper growth or Mega caps etc.

This is not bull bear case, just 2 hypothetic scenarios , then it is up to you to deicide which one of them is realistic or maybe you have your own hypothesis.

So lets start with Alphabetical order.

AMZN.

Lets say it grows 35% for next 5 years period.

amzn35
amzn351164Ɨ365 60.6 KB

It would produce 14% Annual rate of return, or 126% Return to you investment on 31.12.2026. Not bad eh?

Letā€™s go to scenario where it grows ā€œjustā€ 20% annually. (Take into account that PE used depends on Annual growth, so in case 20% it will be PE 20, aka return to mean)

amzn20
amzn201156Ɨ353 57.7 KB

In this scenario, returns donā€™t look so promising. -19% returns in total on 31.12.2026ā€¦

So letā€™s go to our 2nd candidate.

BABA

1st scenario letā€™s say BABA grows 35%ā€¦

Baba35
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If indeed BABA would grow at such pace, investor would earn whooping 587% on his investment at 31.3.2027, or 37% annually. Doesnā€™t seem to shabby?
Now it is question, does one think it is realistic for BABA to grow at such pace?

Ok, so 2nd scenario for BABA, 20% growth.

Baba20
Baba201128Ɨ491 61.6 KB

If the growth is kept at 20%, still BABA would return lovely 145% on your base investment by 31.03.2027. Still doesnā€™t seem so bad, rite?

Now to the final candidate.

The infamous TSLA.

Lets give TSLA a bit bump, so lets presume Musk Inc. grows 65% annually.

tsla65
tsla651182Ɨ352 58.9 KB

So in scenario where TSLA is ultra dominant market force, grows 65%, you invest at today bargain price, you get 126% on your investment by 31.12.2026, not bad?
Now that is if you believe TSLA will grow at such pace, maybe you think it will grow even faster?

2nd Scenario, a ā€œbearishā€ TSLA outlook, grows ā€œjustā€ 25%.

tsla25
tsla251166Ɨ394 61.1 KB

Now on this scenario, investor doesnā€™t have fun, you get -62% on your investment by 2027ā€¦ Ouchā€¦

Letā€™s go crazy with TSLA, fan favorite stock. 3rd Scenario, TSLATOPIA.

tsla100
tsla1001160Ɨ357 60.6 KB

So TSLA grows 100% YoY for 5.

Then investor at today price would get smashing monster market beating 529% return to his investment by 2027ā€¦

Seems like obvious choice, doesnā€™t it?

So what is your pick?! :partying_face:

2 Likes
2

Teslaā€™s so good you get returns 5 years early

1 Like
3

I voted BABA based on growth from this point onwards, so factoring in recent BABA dips and Teslas massive rise up.

Growth from now in next 5 years:
BABA
AMZN
Tesla

Lowest risk growth next 5 years:
AMZN
BABA
Tesla

2 Likes
4

TouchƩ. :slight_smile:

Similar view. :medal_sports:

1 Like
5

Out of interest, which has the better risk reward then between baba and Amazon?

6

Growth from now in next 5 years:
BABA
Tesla*
Amazon*

Lowest risk growth next 5 years:
AMZN
BABA

Tesla

1 Like
7

TSLA is definitely the wildcard of the 3.

Analysts are still trying to figure things out.

tslawld
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Just 6 months ago Estimates were 70% lower for 31.12.2020, 50% lower for 2021, 30% for 2022.

I believe BABA/AMZN it is rather fair estimate ball park of 20-30% growth. For TSLA , who knows could be 50% could be 100%, could be lessā€¦

8

Regarding Tesla, it depends more on competitors market share/performance than on tesla itself imo.

I am very cautious with tesla, the only exposure i have is via baillie trust and thats sizeable already, i dont seek anymore until ev hype is settled somewhat

2 Likes
9

Teslaā€™s so hard to value. Thereā€™s so much they CAN do. Itā€™s more about what they do, how quickly they do it and how profitable it is. Iā€™m going to be doing a deeper analysis on this on my channel soon

1 Like
10

I just asked myself ā€˜if this was my poll, what would Vedran do?ā€™

So I voted for Tesla. :wink:

3 Likes
11

I think both wont lose you money long term for sure so low risk in that sense. But I would say volatility of stock wise Amazon is safer because western markets when looking at Amazon (US) and BABA (China) instantly say, well US is better and safer.

For me I would say growth potential BABA more than Amazon however, to invest in BABA you really need to be able to agree that China WILL be bigger than US economy, the Chinese middle class is BOOMING and GROWING, China can and will support its homegrown businesses more than other countries.
If you are bearish on China or worried about news on govt policies then steer clear.

Overall for me? well lets just say my BABA holding is about many times the size of my Amazon due to buying the BABA dip, but I am looking to get more Amazon for sure. Not looking to own Tesla at these prices other than in an index/fund.

4 Likes
12

I agree. And wouldnā€™t blame anyone for not buying Tesla, itā€™s all what you project. For me revenue will end up in the trillions

13

Agree with the points raised above. One thing Iā€™d add about BABA is that Iā€™ve found it beneficial to hold another company in this space, namely PDD, although JD would likely serve the same purpose. Often they move in the same direction but there was a pronounced negative correlation as BABA nosedived.

1 Like
14

Donā€™t mention PDD. It still stingsā€¦ :sob:

1 Like
15

Yeah I dont own PDD or JD as invest through ISA but I have overall Chinese diversification notably through FCSS and also some of ESPO, and these are actually some of my best performers recently.

16

Screenshot_20210125-185846_Trading 212
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1 Like
17

Unfortunately even the high end growth for baba wouldnā€™t be good enough considering how low the value is today.

Tesla has already smashed your ā€œridiculously highā€ target in just 12 months so not sure whether your projections are ridiculous enough?

Amazon is in a league of its own and the stock price will respond as and when they want it to.

Out of the 3 baba should be the biggest earner for investors but it wonā€™t be Tesla will exceed the gains of both amazon and baba in the next few years. Sadly Jack Ma is not as involved in baba as Elon Musk is in tesla. Couple that with the fact nobody wants to bet against Musk

As for my investment choiceā€¦ I own all 3 and wouldnā€™t consider it any other way