Fun Poll(AMZN/BABA/TSLA)

[Vedran]

Investment Choice

• AMZN
• BABA
• TSLA

So for fun, I will present each company “forecasted” growth.
Now you may choose to ignore graphs presented.
Anyway Picked 3 names even though there is plenty of other Hyper growth or Mega caps etc.

This is not bull bear case, just 2 hypothetic scenarios , then it is up to you to deicide which one of them is realistic or maybe you have your own hypothesis.

So lets start with Alphabetical order.

AMZN.

Lets say it grows 35% for next 5 years period.

It would produce 14% Annual rate of return, or 126% Return to you investment on 31.12.2026. Not bad eh?

Let’s go to scenario where it grows “just” 20% annually. (Take into account that PE used depends on Annual growth, so in case 20% it will be PE 20, aka return to mean)

In this scenario, returns don’t look so promising. -19% returns in total on 31.12.2026…

So let’s go to our 2nd candidate.

BABA

1st scenario let’s say BABA grows 35%…

If indeed BABA would grow at such pace, investor would earn whooping 587% on his investment at 31.3.2027, or 37% annually. Doesn’t seem to shabby?
Now it is question, does one think it is realistic for BABA to grow at such pace?

Ok, so 2nd scenario for BABA, 20% growth.

If the growth is kept at 20%, still BABA would return lovely 145% on your base investment by 31.03.2027. Still doesn’t seem so bad, rite?

Now to the final candidate.

The infamous TSLA.

Lets give TSLA a bit bump, so lets presume Musk Inc. grows 65% annually.

So in scenario where TSLA is ultra dominant market force, grows 65%, you invest at today bargain price, you get 126% on your investment by 31.12.2026, not bad?
Now that is if you believe TSLA will grow at such pace, maybe you think it will grow even faster?

2nd Scenario, a “bearish” TSLA outlook, grows “just” 25%.

Now on this scenario, investor doesn’t have fun, you get -62% on your investment by 2027… Ouch…

Let’s go crazy with TSLA, fan favorite stock. 3rd Scenario, TSLATOPIA.

So TSLA grows 100% YoY for 5.

Then investor at today price would get smashing monster market beating 529% return to his investment by 2027…

Seems like obvious choice, doesn’t it?

So what is your pick?!

[cavanhagan]

@Vedran

price, you get 126% on your investment by 31.12.2016,

Tesla’s so good you get returns 5 years early

[Hbomb]

I voted BABA based on growth from this point onwards, so factoring in recent BABA dips and Teslas massive rise up.

Growth from now in next 5 years:
BABA
AMZN
Tesla

Lowest risk growth next 5 years:
AMZN
BABA
Tesla

[Vedran]

@cavanhagan

Tesla’s so good you get returns 5 years early

Touché.

@Hbomb

Lowest risk growth next 5 years:
AMZN
BABA
Tesla

Similar view.

[cavanhagan]

Out of interest, which has the better risk reward then between baba and Amazon?

[Elijah]

Growth from now in next 5 years:
BABA
Tesla*
Amazon*

Lowest risk growth next 5 years:
AMZN
BABA

Tesla

[Vedran]

TSLA is definitely the wildcard of the 3.

Analysts are still trying to figure things out.

Just 6 months ago Estimates were 70% lower for 31.12.2020, 50% lower for 2021, 30% for 2022.

I believe BABA/AMZN it is rather fair estimate ball park of 20-30% growth. For TSLA , who knows could be 50% could be 100%, could be less…

[Elijah]

Regarding Tesla, it depends more on competitors market share/performance than on tesla itself imo.

I am very cautious with tesla, the only exposure i have is via baillie trust and thats sizeable already, i dont seek anymore until ev hype is settled somewhat

[cavanhagan]

Tesla’s so hard to value. There’s so much they CAN do. It’s more about what they do, how quickly they do it and how profitable it is. I’m going to be doing a deeper analysis on this on my channel soon

[Joey_Fantana]

I just asked myself ‘if this was my poll, what would Vedran do?’

So I voted for Tesla.

[Hbomb]

I think both wont lose you money long term for sure so low risk in that sense. But I would say volatility of stock wise Amazon is safer because western markets when looking at Amazon (US) and BABA (China) instantly say, well US is better and safer.

For me I would say growth potential BABA more than Amazon however, to invest in BABA you really need to be able to agree that China WILL be bigger than US economy, the Chinese middle class is BOOMING and GROWING, China can and will support its homegrown businesses more than other countries.
If you are bearish on China or worried about news on govt policies then steer clear.

Overall for me? well lets just say my BABA holding is about many times the size of my Amazon due to buying the BABA dip, but I am looking to get more Amazon for sure. Not looking to own Tesla at these prices other than in an index/fund.

[cavanhagan]

I agree. And wouldn’t blame anyone for not buying Tesla, it’s all what you project. For me revenue will end up in the trillions

[topher]

Agree with the points raised above. One thing I’d add about BABA is that I’ve found it beneficial to hold another company in this space, namely PDD, although JD would likely serve the same purpose. Often they move in the same direction but there was a pronounced negative correlation as BABA nosedived.

[Joey_Fantana]

Don’t mention PDD. It still stings…

[Hbomb]

@topher

Agree with the points raised above. One thing I’d add about BABA is that I’ve found it beneficial to hold another company in this space, namely PDD, although JD would likely serve the same purpose. Often they move in the same direction but there was a pronounced negative correlation as BABA nosedived.

Yeah I dont own PDD or JD as invest through ISA but I have overall Chinese diversification notably through FCSS and also some of ESPO, and these are actually some of my best performers recently.

[Rygel]

[Lenos1980]

Unfortunately even the high end growth for baba wouldn’t be good enough considering how low the value is today.

Tesla has already smashed your “ridiculously high” target in just 12 months so not sure whether your projections are ridiculous enough?

Amazon is in a league of its own and the stock price will respond as and when they want it to.

Out of the 3 baba should be the biggest earner for investors but it won’t be Tesla will exceed the gains of both amazon and baba in the next few years. Sadly Jack Ma is not as involved in baba as Elon Musk is in tesla. Couple that with the fact nobody wants to bet against Musk

As for my investment choice… I own all 3 and wouldn’t consider it any other way