Fundamental Analysis of Tesla - TSLA

It’ll be here as fast as the fully self driving cars in 2019

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Self drive is still naff now.

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Yeah it is, nor is it really self drive yet.

It’ll come though!

I think so. It’s good in motorway situations and in the city. It’s terrible on country roads and suchlike.

It’s actually really bad when the car is full, it doesn’t seem to make an adjustment.

All this talk made me think about that pre-Rev SPAC, Luminar, that was hyped a while back.

It’s not as beaten up as I thought yet, with a $6B market cap. Might be one to watch in that space

EDIT; had highs of 50, now trades at 16 :grimacing:. The good old days when you could buy a SPAC and dump it at the right time for easy money.

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Is this the lidar company? If so there’s a few of these sorts of companies around which makes me nervous making a choice.

What’s the picks and shovels play? ASML?

Yeah, it’s a lidar start up by some young prodigy. As you say, there’s probably a few out there to pick from. Could be worth a punt, but I dare say someone so small could just get acquired, should any of the tech come to fruition. Which also may not be a bad thing for shareholders.

For such a large market cap, I literally know nothing about ASML. What I do know is, whoever starts investing heavy is foundries again for chip production is going to make a lot of money.

You can’t make a foundry without ASML.

Why is this?

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I am not hugely knowledgeable on this but essentially a large proportion of the chip makers use ASML products to make their semis, so the thinking on ASML is that certain semis companies could do well or badly, but ASML will do well as they are more an industry play not a sole company play as such. If that makes any sense. It is actually on my list to look into but its not an industry I know much about but I know it is one that will only increase.

And also ASMI.

ASML was a joint venture of ASMI and Phillips. And now ASML is bigger than both parents combined in market cap, almost 6x.

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Bailie Gifford seems to offer good exposure to ASML. It’s a top 10 holding for SMT, global growth and positive change.

Fundamentally the stock doesn’t make any sense. Will it one day justify it’s current valuation? Most likely yes, tesla vehicles are quite hyped by social media so they will keep selling well. If you are okay with an investment that will give you zero ROI for the coming years than that’s should be fine.

I think there is a good chance it will hit $1000 per share in the next couple of years, thats a $300 gain from now, or a 21% ROI which is still quite good.

Not sure that’s true. Price is a bit toppy (I haven’t entered, yet anyway) but the fundamentals are emerging. Revenue has been increasingly consistently for 5 years with Profits now coming through (and growing). If you look at their price spikes it generally coincides with record profits.

Also, you’re better thinking of Tesla of a battery company than a car company. Cars are only a small part of the story.

overpaying for growth usually translates into very poor ROI.

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I would say there is a balance as perhaps traditional metrics, ie PE multiples, EV/EBITDA etc are not always that useful when used as the sole valuation method for growth companies.

I myself, and like many others, have missed out on great opportunities where the companies are growing into them multiples now due to the increase not just in revenue, but also earnings.

However Tesla is still a bit juicy for my liking when comparing to it’s peers. And as always, it’s worth what people are willing to pay (for now).

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Who’s still holding this?

What a stock tbh the returns are ridiculous :joy:

Returns are nothing compared to what they’ll be in 2022 and beyond.

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