How diversified are you?

It’s complicated as the guy below explained in much more detail than I could at this point in my learning well that and I’m not the best at explaining my thinking but here goes nothing - the reason for the weighting is also complicated and I’ll explain in my response to the other person - to answer your question about time spent; you’re assessment is actually pretty close but not far enough, this past year my average day is 13 hours in the market with about 2-3 hours research done out of hours, Ive never got much sleep but it has some advantages when it comes to study :joy: - you can stop reading here if you don’t want a break down -

But yeah starting off i had previous knowledge of business, economics and a bunch of other things I’ve found useful but no actual experience in the markets so knowing I was statistically likely to loose I figured I’d have to learn as much as possible while putting it into practise with as minimal risk as possible so paper trade, had some success and had learnt a lot (I thought anyway)- I’d also wake up two hours before the European Market and research a further variety of information about investing, finance, economics, trading, various companies etc I keep up to date with international/business news as much as it pains me and set up various streams of information through alerts etc to streamline the whole process, my notifications go off constantly now but I know about things as soon as they happen if not earlier. Aside from that I’d find people worth listening to at the very least on various platforms the obvious ones being buffet, lynch, burry, woods there’s other lesser known people - I’ll recommend one here - Patrick Boyle on finance - hedge fund manager does videos explaining how the market functions, lectures at some business school in London etc, pretty informative.

Then once I’d put actual money in come open I’d mainly trade companies I was already familiar with, I wasn’t so much setting out to make money as much as I was to learn how the market functioned while I built my capital so once I was more comfortable I could make larger moves & I did take losses at first which made me more cautious as I went on so each time I’d add a company I’d look through all the finances/who was funding them from year to year etc & what they did or were planning to do to a deeper degree, what had happened in their past, various other bits and pieces, then look at the historical graphs who’s involved in the company, which institutions are buying shares, who’s short etc level 2 data - I’d see what the trends were and how they affected different sectors, then try to gauge sentiment by checking frequency of searches, if there was any news or rumours and what the general chatter was, I’d generally then check individuals track records while doing this as there’s a lot of noise, the individual who posted that extensive analysis below strikes me as the type of person who’s information is worth taking into account - even if you don’t use it, it’s worth knowing essentially

It does take up a lot of time and concentration as such after 8 months I’m finally starting to feel very burnt out with it- but I don’t have to do it as much as I did while setting this up and I don’t add as many stocks anymore and those I do I’ve already done the research on/have traded before - so long as the story hasn’t changed too much I might take profits one month and rebuy the next if I’m just looking for a place to keep some money till a different opportunity shows its self such as a general pull back in one area or whatever the market decides to throw my way - it’s thrown my allocation way off as certain picks are up thousands of percentage points but are now essentially serious starter positions at the current price whereas before they were very early picks in my portfolio that were about 0.3-4% of my allocation before they jumped a ridiculous amount, gme being one of the more famous examples only made Ā£500 but I only put about Ā£20 in so it has its moments even if it can also be frustrating due to not being heavily weighted towards that one particular stock - then once the research is done I only have to make sure disaster doesn’t strike so it requires a lot less analysis each time I’m checking in on that particular companies performance - the downside being I can miss information sometimes that someone who only focused on a couple of stocks wouldn’t so I try to make sure most stocks have some relation to each other in terms of infrastructure -

Sorry for typing too much I could honestly go on and on but yeah tldr, I sorta had too much time this past year.

You have explained this far better than I could of done, i appreciate the level of detail you’ve gone into and will research your post further after this response as there’s a couple things beyond my knowledge in there -

I agree with the current state of my portfolio not being as diversified as it looks, there’s maybe 70 stocks making up the majority of the value but it’s hard to gauge at this point as aside from the fact most things have compounded already making everything seem twice as risky the current weight in many cases is due to a multiple of factors with the main one wkhs/ride being an early mistake in terms of learning not to chase stocks but also primarily its due to the returns of individual stocks which were not such a large part of my portfolio previously alpine 4 being the best example as I didn’t buy that much alpp to begin with, as you have stated relative to active share and standard deviation overtime the expected return should decrease as these valuations run out of space to grow at least in theory as you could supposedly just rebalance your capital towards new/different opportunities over the years as they emerge - not that this always be the case as statistically its unlikely but I guess that’s the theory.

The math required at this point to calculate where I’m actually at with everything being so high is also way beyond me due to the nature of the current market and how the companies I used to have the most money/shares in are now less than 1% of my portfolio, yet some of my largest earners have far less capital yet they’ve just jumped by ridiculous amounts relative to the amounts the others have jumped by. In practise i always considered the smaller plays to be more of a cash reserve so that when I see a good opportunity I can make either a quick sale or start with a larger position to long hold than I might otherwise be able to afford at that moment, they tend to be low risk positions so they just hold value whereas my larger positions are more liquid/volatile so they tend to drive returns but come with more risk both in the short and long term so I try to offset that with more stable assets less focused on growth, don’t want to write another essay so I’m trying to keep it shortish and maybe missed your point here or there, hopefully not :sweat_smile:& in regards to the emotional aspect it does feel like a balancing act in the eye of the storm where you have to pivot on individual stocks from time to time.

Either way thank you for taking the time to leave such a detailed and informative response, it helps a lot, I feel like my response was a tad rambling but I hope it’s not too bad and wish you all the best.

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This is where I stand diversification-wise. A bit meme-stock heavy for my liking. I’m also overexposed to China, which makes up roughly 40% right now, due to outperformance.

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That’s amazing - and I thought I had a lot with 180 holdings! Congrats on the gains too, looks like you’ve got a solid portfolio

Just like with a ā€˜regular’ variance (sigma squared) and standard deviation (regular sigma) the standard deviation of a portfolio is the square root of the portfolio variance.


then

Note that for the calculation of the variance for a portfolio that consists of multiple assets, you should calculate the factor 2wiwjCovi.j (or 2wiwjρi,j,σiσj ) for each possible pair of assets in the portfolio.
Also note that the formula gives you a fraction, so you can use it as a percentage by using *100 and that’s how it’s presented in the graph.

Educational sources:

Standard Deviation and Risk.

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Where did you get that?

Is there a site somewhere where you can lost your tickers and it tells you that sort of info.

It’s Simply Wall St. I just use the free plan. Handy tool but don’t take all their analysis as gospel.

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Self education can be helpful some times but taking a full course in Financial Education would pay much better in the long run. Hedging your portfolio is more important that being so overly diversified. Knowing when to reposition is what makes you the money. If you haven’t taken the profit; you haven’t earned itšŸ¤—

606 is like buying 606 games. You have a lot of crossover genres (in this case, Sectors)

Glad I only have like 30 and they are mostly in sectors I wish to stay in like:

Pharma
BioTech
Advertisement
Beverages
Speciality Retailer
Budget Retailer
Vegan Food Producer
Investment Holdings
Banking
Education
eSports
Sales as a Service (for Online Casinos)
REITs

Although I think I need an Energy/Water play but the Debts and regulations put me off.

Might I suggest you look into something like NEE.

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Holdings

  • Top 1: 10%
  • Top 5: 40%
  • Top 10: 70%
    (20 Holdings)

Sectors

  • Technology 28%
  • Financial Services 17%
  • Industrials 13%
  • ESG 11%
  • Consumer Cyclical 11%
  • REITs 8%
  • Gov. Bonds 5%
  • Healthcare 4%
  • Utilities 2%
  • Crypto 1%

Regions

  • USA 48%
  • Europe 20%
  • Asia 12%
  • UK 10%
  • Rest of the World 10%

Asset Classes

  • Stocks 86%
  • Real Estate 8%
  • Bonds 5%
  • Crypto 1%

Management Types

  • Active 71%
  • Passive 29%

Currencies

  • USD 58%
  • EUR 30%
  • GBP 12%

Investment Types

  • Growth 44%
  • Value 29%
  • Growth & Value 27%

Cash

  • Invested 76%
  • Cash 24%

:slight_smile:

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How did you work out all that? I loosely track mine in sheets, haven’t found a reasonable platform that can link in all my accounts easily enough…

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How do Bonds work on the Stock Market? Do you just buy shares and get an X amount back or something until Maturity?

if you buy a bond then you get the coupon payments until expiration (normally you get coupon payments each month and at the maturity the principle is paid back).

Keep in mind that bond prices fluctuate so coupon interest isn’t equal to your net interest your getting (for that look at yield to maturatiy)

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Ah okay. Good to know how it works.

Just something to think about in 20 years time for me.

Is the Coupon Payments Monthly or Yearly?

Coupon payments vary in frequency depending on the security you purchase.

Monthly/Quarterly/Semi Annual/Annual.

Daily/Weekly are reserved more for short term instruments.

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Nice breakdown, 2 things I noticed stand out, high cash holding, assuming a crash? or you always hold lots in cash? I am assuming these are not savings but investing funds right.
2nd is high european holding, reasons?

I’ve been interested to read what people are writing and so will also contribute to the survey:

Top 58% %
Fundsmith Equity 11.68%
PG 7.74%
Lindsell Train Global and UK funds 4.09%
AAPL 3.70%
MSFT 3.34%
JNJ 3.33%
Oils: CVX COP PSX XOM 3.52%
Europe: VERX EUE CS51 2.69%
ADP 2.65%
INTC 2.56%
UK funds: ISF HRP3 2.22%
HON 2.15%
Emerging markets: EMIM VFEM 2.10%
TMO 2.08%
JPM 2.05%
Japan: SJPA VJPN 1.97%
ABBV 1.80%
Sectors S&P 500 weights my weights
Communication Services 10.6 5.4
Consumer Discretionary 12.8 1.7
Consumer Staples 6.3 27.2
Energy 2.5 4.9
Financials 10.8 9.6
Health Care 13.7 18.1
Industrials 8.4 11.1
Information Technology 27.2 17.7
Materials 2.8 1.0
Utilities 2.7 3.4
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@Dougal1984

I was also having a hard time finding a platform to track everything, the way that I wanted and to show me the key things that I value the most. So, I decided to create something of my own. :joy: It’s basically a spreadsheet in Excel, that I’ve been working on for quite some time. In short, you just input your trades (working on the ability to input them easily through a CSV file), and some basic info for each holding and it does the rest. It can show your Portfolio Allocation, Forecasted Growth, Returns, etc.

It still needs some customizability though and ensuring that everything is working properly, and then I will be sharing it online.

If you want mate, you can follow me on Instagram at @investing.tools and I will be sharing it there once it’s available. :v:

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@Hbomb

Thank you! As for your points:

Cash Holding
Well, the way I see it. Timing and predicting the market is basically impossible. We can never know when the next crash is coming. But, what we can do, is be prepared with ammunition when opportunities present themselves and the crash does happen. As we don’t know the ā€œwhenā€, we can only look at the current market conditions. And truth is, they are kind of strange, let’s say. That can be seen for example, from things like high valuations which are disregarding fundamentals, companies priced for perfection, euphoria assuming that nothing can go wrong and treatment of the market as a casino, basically. Considering these, I decided that for the time being, it is best to keep a reasonable amount in cash.

To be fair though, the next crash may still be years away. It may be tomorrow. Nobody knows. And that’s basically why most of my portfolio is still invested.

And yes, they are investing funds which I allocated prior to only be used for investing purposes.

European Holdings
For a few reasons:

  • Unexplored Opportunites
  • Less ā€œfuzzā€ than US Equities
  • More down to earth valuations
  • Diversification

Also note, that 78% of that 20% is exposure to Europe through passive investments, such as ETFs.

:slight_smile:

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