My AutoInvest Pie: 10 stocks with huge upside potential

yeah itā€™s crazy, but think of thisā€¦on the 30/9/2012 Amazon had a PE ratio of 3363.14ā€¦ and it turned out ok.

source: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/pe-ratio

ps. agree nothing against his portfolio at all. just maybe a little carried away with short term results.

Iā€™m just trolling to be honest.

I hold a couple of these in the PortYOLOio I run for my partner.

Theyā€™re sort of hold your nose and dive in kind of stocks.

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Iā€™m guessing a few of us have that one portfolio holding some very suspect stocks on a speculative hope where you just throw in a fiver on Friday instead of buying a kebab.

That said, I think zoom will probably fall a bit when all the lockdowns end and people are using video conferencing as normal.

Fastly has that deal with Shopify which should boost it for a while.

Twilio I like as we use its service to send out messages where I work.

The rest I have little to no knowledge on so wouldnā€™t buy them without doing some research first.

No I am not getting carried away! Some people have totally misunderstood the whole thing - People reading my regular blog posts /monthly review on substack know it is quite the opposite!

I am a long term focused investor rather than someone looking for short term gains and infact I have commented several times both on twitter and in my blogs that the recent returns are NOT normal! We should be thanking the Fed rather than complaining about markets being rigged! Follow the money and the rest is noise!
And yes it is equally important to know when to exit - I am not clever enough to have an edge in market timing though so I pick the best of the breed which I believe will succeed long term regardless of the peaks/troughs of the business cycle and follow their business closely and keep holding them until the thesis changes.

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I have no such portfolio LOL. Most of my holdings are all stuff thatā€™s oddly stable given everything thatā€™s happened these last few months. the result is that if the market crashed, I saw no losses, yet when it rallies I still see almost no gains :stuck_out_tongue:

I occasionally have a bit of loose change from dividends and leftovers to buy a couple volatile shares and cash out around 17% in the green, but the position is too small to matter haha

That sounds like youā€™ve got a savings account @Dao :rofl:

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perhaps, but it pays much more than a typical savings account :stuck_out_tongue: itā€™s an acceptable result considering I was focusing on dividend payers and they are all for the most part quite stable in behaviour and value pricing :laughing: that was with all stocks and no bonds or ETFs.

I made the same amount in just 3 months in this ISA, using half the funds I had to deposit over the course of last year into my regular savers account to see a return on my money. with the dividends getting factored in, I have been seeing consistent growth, it just doesnā€™t appear in the charts for each holding hence not as noticeable as growth stocks,

Now I have more branching and better pricing, with more frequent adjustments. still not going to buy tesla and hope for $2000 >.>

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How are you making your assessment on which is best in breed? For example, Zoom doesnā€™t have any real best in breed features that I can see (financial or technological).

Thanks

Iā€™m quite interested in seeing what you have in there honestly, I love seeing peopleā€™s portfolio and the thoughts behind it

currently in possession of PEP shares outside the pie, once those are sold and funds moved over will show the makeup, I went from 4 companies to 10 so there are no guaranteed returns to this new portfolio yet. but I can say that the election vote and boris johnsons speech shortly after contributed a decent amount from market turbulence that went past my ā€œsensible pricingā€ threshold. still long on OXY however, since I can see a chance to profit nicely enough for my troubles.

must admit I considered putting Ā£100 in CFD and shorting Tesla for a week :stuck_out_tongue:

Just got to time it right for the next Elon tweet :joy:

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pretty much. the next tweet will be a caveat reality check against their good Q2 results followed by a vague statement and then a ridiculuos spontaneous rally to around $3200~ :wink:

make sure to get your lottery tickets soon to take part. lucky colour is red and fortune favours star-sign Leo :wink: hahaha thatā€™s all from ā€œconfessions from a satirical prophetā€.

Does not matter what I or you believe - story telling is one thing - I just look at the numbers which for Zoom have been the best ever I have EVER seen (in fact unreal last quarter)

  1. Total revenue was up 169%!!!
  2. Operating income $55m up massively from only 8m year ago! Huge acceleration and improving unit economics
  3. Net income 58m up from only 9m before so accelerating again
  4. Operating cash flow out of the park! Went to 259m from just 22m 10x increase simply incredible.
    Same for free cash flow gone to 252m up from 15m
    New companies with more than 10 employees shot up rto 265,000+ up a massive 354%!!
    Companies are spending 30% more on Zoom this year vs last year! Incredible I can just keep on going but I think you get the picture - this is NOT a story stock it has some numbers behind it why people like it so much - if the numbers start to weaken so will my positioning but for now I stick with it being the best of the breed!

Thanks but my question wasnā€™t about belief, but how you made the assessment that it was better than say WebEx or Teams (or Slack or Skype or House Party etc) on the technical side. On the financial side are you not worried by the incredibly high P/E ratio or the low margin?

Iā€™d be concerned with Zoom that free users donā€™t convert into paying customers and particularly during lockdown become a massive drain.

That is before all the concerns about privacy and security.

I follow the trend of what those ratios might look like in 3-5yrs rather than now as itā€™s a growth company not a mature company - for growth companies p/e would be the worst metrics one could look at in my opinion (at least the market agrees with me so far!)

Sorry couldnā€™t help getting the feel of "Tele shopping commercials " with how you presented it. :slight_smile:

Each accountant can use numbers to his advantage, putting % in place of actual numbers can make one feel like this is bigger growth then numbers show.

Aka 1 mil revenue vs 2 mil revenue is 100% increase, sounds a lot more when you say 100% then when you put 1mil vs 2 mil.

Anyway good luck with the investment :beers:

Yes do your own research no one is asking you to invest in anything- there is something called a 10K/10Q you can dig the numbers yourself my blog reply was something I did quickly on my lunch break & was a quick message to answer the question - zoom is not a $1m company! Your example is just hilarious - good luck anyways with your investments

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Here is the $1m dollar in revs company that is Zoom! :grinning:

Those are reasons you rate Zoom not reasons why it is better than its competitors ie best in class.

I completely get that Zoom has undergone massive growth, I just donā€™t see the justification for the valuation (not your fault!) or your description as best in class.

Yes valuations are over stretched - but thatā€™s not my fault! Somebody is willing to pay for future growth I am on. Board as long as itā€™s too and bottom line continue to accelerate higher! Itā€™s best in class due to highest adoption rate which is no joke given the competitors it has in video conferencing- I personally find it ok but entreprises find it better than alternatives which is why itā€™s is growing itā€™s market share exponentially