My AutoInvest Pie: 10 stocks with huge upside potential

Just checking how are all the Zoom haters doing???
Yet another blow out earnings quarter and crushing the estimates to yet another ALL TIME HIGH!!! Truly a solid category killer!

Another solid month end for the Category Killers stock portfolio up 48%+ since June and crushing the indices and Cloud ETFs.

image

Still delighted I never bought it. It makes no sense at all.

3 Likes

Good to hear - it definitely means I am not selling a single share of mine .More upside to come for the patient investor - my two cents.

It is music to my ears to hear that these numbers still make no sense to people:

Revenue: $663.5M +355% yoy

Customers with >100k ACV +112% yoy
370.2k customers with >10 employees +458% yoy

Net dollar retention: >130%

non-GAAP income: $277M (margin 41.7%)

Cash & equiv: $1.5B

FY revenue guidance of $2.38B

Unrealā€¼ļø

Itā€™s market cap makes absolutely no sense though. How can it be worth more than the vast majority of companies on the S&P500. It just doesnā€™t add up.

Market is forward looking - more growth to come and More upside until majority of the people realise this is not a value but a high growth category killer

How did you spot these in the first place if you donā€™t mind me asking?

No shortcut I am afraid - lots of reading of 10Ks , 10Qs, S1s and identifying the relevant key metrics that matter for each stock and mapping the underlying trend in those metrics each time the companyā€™s report and then you need that gut instinct with a bit of luck to shortlist the ones that will be true category killers but the potential is not fully priced in - no point for me taking position in stocks like Apple, google or Facebook which are already established and everyone knows their potential

So, at this valuation, what is your expected annual ROR for the total portfolio in next 5-10 years? :trolleybus:

I make ZERO predictions and price targets.
ABSOLUTELY ZERO.

I follow the numbers in the earning releases and other material news releases - as long as the businesses are showing leadership and strength I hold , of not I will fold!

Many people like you who were making fun at Zoom and other solid stocks like CrowdStrike etc get bogged down by valuations , follow traditional stock screeners that only work for value stocks and assume I am married to the stock forever and will be holding it for the next 100 years - Thatā€™s not how I invest

So you ride the wave then jump off if it slows down and catch the next? Do you have a list of potential replacements already lined up for the current crop?

Yes I try to look for potential category killers within each thematic I follow and the best businesses so have a watchlist of stocks - cover more within my blog

Valuations always revert to mean, history has thought us that much.

Now only question is when somone will cash out, ā€œon timeā€ or when value reverts to mean, being left holding the bag.

1 Like

True but why should I sell out of a stock that is firing in all cylinders and reinvest those proceeds in some crappy ā€˜valueā€™ stock trading at a P/E of 10 or below but going nowhere when the next 50% drawdown in my stock might come from 100% higher price Level- in fact Zoom is a prime example where my first purchase in Zoom was at $76 and now the stock is $350+!!! The same crowd mocking at Zoom now weā€™re also mocking it at $76 and saying it was ā€œtoo expensiveā€ and missed out on the entire run in the fear of ā€œmean reversionā€!
I live in the present not in the fear of what might happen - unless Zoom is a fraud the earnings reports will tell one ahead of time when its the right time to get out!!

Itā€™s clearly working for you so congrats.

How are you feeling about Alteryx? Seems to be the runt of the litter at the moment.

Are you going to write a blog about the framework you use? Which industries? What signals you look for? How often you hold o average? Iā€™m pretty new but with limited capital this certainly seems like an approach to make some gainsā€¦ value investing is great when youā€™ve capital to protect not when youā€™re trying to build up capital from humble beginnings

1 Like

Good points there, Iā€™d be interested to know also.

On your comment on value stocks though, I do think itā€™s good to have a nice blend of growth and value. If you keep chasing the quick win all the time then you do risk blowing everything.

Iā€™m going for a blend, but thatā€™s just my opinion.

Lots of scrambled thoughts, fundamental research process and idea generation steps that I never get time to write out in a lot of detail as working full time but I recently started a substack blog I write when I get spare time that you can follow.
Maybe one day investing will become full time for me haha but not there yet. My mistake , I should have been 100% invested in Zoom I could have retired tonight! Itā€™s going a bit insane tonight over $400 now after hours!

Just read most of your blog postsā€¦subscribed to newsletter and followed on Twitter :joy: bit extra I know.

So the watch list you created on excel, is that a top 100 tech stocks of which you pull out your favouritesā€¦ noticed you follow palantir - is that one for when it IPOs? Thoughts on snowflake?

Congrats at paying off your mortgage aged 36 btw :eyes::see_no_evil:

1 Like

Not my highest conviction category killer at the moment ( thatā€™s reserved for Fastly and Roku as top 2) as its business has suffered due to COVID-19 headwinds but I am holding my shares and added a bit on the recent dip as long term story is well intact I believe in the managements long term and the headwinds will be temporary in my opinion.

1 Like

Thanks! Thatā€™s most of it though I have not had time to put in a more updated version lately as often I keep refreshing them about every couple of weeks but try to keep it to around 100 or so odd names at a time.

1 Like