I’ve just watched the video of the OpenAI powered robot passing an apple and sorting rubbish… Amazing. The pace of development is frightening and amazing.
I am surprised that the price of NVDA hasn’t reacted. I wonder whether the rise in MSFT is at least in part a response to the video.
The whole silicon, software, robotic, AI market has only just started and will be absolutely massive. I have massive concerns including concerns for society, jobs… but those concerns aside it is absolutely amazing
From what I’ve seen, figuring out how cool tech breakthroughs really affect a company’s money-making ability can be pretty tricky. It seems like investors are trying to guess whether these new techs will help a company bring in more cash, grab a bigger piece of the market, or get ahead of competitors in the long run. It’s all about looking ahead and thinking about the big picture, rather than just the immediate effects.
I completely agree that there is often little or no correlation between some blue sky news and share price. The market tends to focus on things that will immediately impact revenue, earnings, margin and short term forecasts. However, that potentially creates opportunity. If you see a company doing something that potentially is significant in the medium to long term then it might reflect an opportunity to buy before the market starts to recognise it. I am not saying that this is in that category yet. As you say, its about looking ahead.
I thought that I would post about the robot video because I thought that it was pretty amazing and reflected a tech breakthrough. For several years were seen amazing videos of Boston Robotics robots do all sorts of things. However, those are all about agility and their physical capabilities. The OpenAI robot is significant because it combines a decent robot with AI, linguistics and reasoning. A lot of AI insiders/purists have been critical of OpenAI and LLM saying that it will never become AGI and never be capable of anything more than modest improvements over its current capabilities. A very close friend of mine has worked in AI for 40 years and I’ve had many debates with him over the last 12 months with us taking very different views on the long term potential.
For those that haven’t seen it here’s the video
Figure Status Update - OpenAI Speech-to-Speech Reasoning (youtube.com)
The intro says end-to-end neural nets. That suggests very different tech from simply chatGPT. Interesting that Tesla’s FSM12 uses a completely neural net solution for the in-car system and Tesla has a massive NVIDIA based data centre doing the learning and neural net training.
What impresses me about this video and development is the speed of development and progress. GPT5 was only released 15 months ago and this is a massive progression on that and would appear to be based on completely new AI tech (it isn’t even clear that its LLM based).
The video could be blue sky but robots are already used extensively in business environments. The demo in the video is obviously a domestic type demo but the potential for AI robots in commercial environments is enormous and immediate. Thus this tech could be revenue generating very quickly and that has huge implications. Going forward the market is absolutely massive but there are as many issues (or even more) with AI robots vs AI in general. There is massive implications for society and jobs and personally I have massive concerns and do not trust Altman and think big tech will rush to market with little regard for the consequences (especially with companies like Meta who have historically shown no regard for individuals/society/privacy…)
Absolutely, the way the market reacts (or doesn’t) to certain news can indeed open doors for those looking to invest with a longer-term perspective. It’s all about seeing the potential before it becomes mainstream.