plenty of people were mad at the US, but there is a big situational difference with this Russian invasion than with other US invasions in the past.
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Russian Exchange open pushed back. Historic.
No Dollars leftā¦.
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Quick question to fellow investors, do you reckon as follows:
If a cease fire and resolution is reach that investors will invest back in the likes of Evraz, Polymetal and other Russian stocks that have fallen drastically or is it the case that a more permanent damage has been done to the Russian image such that investing in Russian stocks becomes a high risk that investors would stay away?
Iāve got significant exposure to Russian mining stocks long before the invasion started and now at a crossroad of weather to keep holding or accept these losses are forever lost?
All opinion would be greatly appreciated
The million-dollar question this one I feel. I guess if you think Russia are about to kill half a million men, women and children in Ukraine then Iād be well away from anything even remotely Soviet.
If you think Putin is days away from being overthrown and hung from the streets then Russian stocks present a potentially good investment.
I would apply the investment principle:
"This time it is different "
Money doesnāt care about moral tbh.
If it did, then companies like Altria, Philip Morris, Shell, BP, Exxon, JnJ, Pfizer, GSK, Apple etc. would all be valued 0$, but they are not.
To be honest, if money followed moral we wouldnāt have stock market in first place, I donāt think there is many companies which can say with clear conscience that they havenāt done something immoral in their history.
When the rich wage war itās the poor who die.
Jean-Paul Sartre
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Russia to use their national wealth fund to buyback some Russian shares, currently stated about $10billion so not crazy amounts but an interesting move.
āThe power Putin is about to feel is the power of producers against gangsters, of governments that inspire trust against governments that rule by fear. Russia depends on the dollar, the euro, the pound, and other currencies in ways that few around Putin could comprehend. The liberal democracies that created those trusted currencies are about to make Putinās cronies feel what they never troubled to learn. Squeeze them.ā
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Abramovich moving evraz assets to Moscow exchange has not aged well I think he knew well in advance. What does every1 think?
I think we shouldnāt speculate on conspiracies.
I was following The Atlantic and similar media during 2 years period 2020-2022.
I didnāt find any debate or objective writting on any key issue.
Some of which I found sharing broad information without telling you what to think.
Ie. Oliver Stone:
Amid all the hysteria of Western media, screaming bloody murder at #Putin, omitting key facts when inconvenient, itās most important to understand the full spectrum of whatās happening ā and, above all, to think clearly. With the help of the Internet, Iāve found some helpful and honest analyses. I cite them below in order of importance to me.
Pearls and Irritations, a little-known progressive Australian platform, was sent to me by Zach Sklar, my cowriter on āJFK.ā Tony Kevin was an Australian senior diplomat who was posted to their Embassy in Moscow. Here, he gets right to the crux of the matter.
https://bit.ly/3skj0h9Also from Zach is āUnderstanding Putinās Narrativeā¦ā by Jonathan Steele of the British Guardian.
Understanding Putinās narrative about Ukraine is the master key to this crisis | Jonathan Steele | The GuardianJoe Lauria, the heir to the late, great Bob Parry on Consortium News:
Why Putin Went to WarAnd Caitlin Johnstone of Australia with ā12 Thoughts on Ukraine.ā
Caitlin Johnstone: 12 Thoughts on Ukraine
Or if one preferred Video format:
Russel Brand:
He has objective takes on current hot topics.
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Hereās a good question, well a few really:
- When will it end?
- How will it end?
- Will Putin survive this?
The Russian regime is known to āmanipulateā also the corporate world. Foreign investors are usually stolen by the political actors, high level corruption and outright accountant steal (even worse than previous western scandals).
Read this book, it shows the Russia corporate world (and the political influences) since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Putin already gave orders not to pay the coupons of the Russian debt to foreign creditors. He also threaten to nationalize foreign companies and assets present in Russia.
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I thought the same during the last 3 decades Iām investing. But I see the tide is slowly turning (and me too). The investors (both asset owners and asset managers) are increasingly concerned about ESG.
There are lot of companies and investors worried about the reputational risk and some already suffered from the public opinion.
The ESG funds and ETFs are becoming the norm, excluding controversial companies (weapons, tobacco, gambling, oil/gas, coal/lignite, etc)
The famous Milton Friedmanās motto of creating value for the shareholders is changing to creating value for the stakeholders.
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Oil Market Prediction from Analyst if Russian Oils is cut
Cutting off Russian oil could mean $200 a barrel: Stifelās Wheaton Mar 4, 2022 CNBC Television
I suspect there will be a change as these sanctions start to affect the countries doing the sanctions like US, UK and all the EU nations. There will be a shift where politics at home starts to trump the sympathy for the war I believe. No way oil and other commodities can stay at this level and economies crashing without our govt changing, as current if we are not able to use/buy Russia energy globally it pushes all prices up. It may take weeks or a few months but something will change.
It wonāt be liked but thereās a couple of solutions.
- Reduce taxes on (clean?) energy use.
- Add a tax to profits over x a barrel of oil to compensate.
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Or just nationalisation? Iām more laissez faire but a countries energy supply is probably one of the most critical things it has.
Plus rolls Royce will probably get a big contract for those small nuclear reactors going ahead. Nice sell off with Warren east leaving, I might have to review them and have a little dabble.
Russia āwonāt forgetā British support for Ukraine
Are we actually on the wrong side here or are they seriously blindsided by their leader?
Tbh Iām surprised how pathetic the Russian invasion has been. They give it the big one but theyāre actually a joke.
Plus Russia attacked us on our own soil with chemical warfare maybe we should arm the ukranians with some?
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