I think of all risks that could impact or impacting the stock market like Brexit, Inflation, stagflation, interest rate, china etc being discussed on this forum, there’s rarely any discussion of the possibilities of Russia incursion/invading/war with Ukraine - the impact it will have on the stock market.
Is it the case that Mr market has already priced it in the current market valuation or there’s absolute certainty that nothing is going to happen.
So if the unthinkable does happen, what are we investors looking at:
10 - 50% market crash
which stocks to buy/sell.
stock winners/losers
stock vs bonds vs gold vs crypto
Commodity plays
Am not here to start conflict propaganda but for people to share investment ideas if the worst does happen
I think energy is the biggest economic issue with this potential conflict, both in terms of how it impacts short term supply chains but also if the UK/US start doing sanctions. For my portfolio the biggest impact is BP as my only energy holding, and because it holds a very profitable 20%+ stake in Rosneft a Russian company so will the UK govt look at that as an issue, also BP has lots of operations in Russia working with Russia and Russian companies.
However if it doesnt escalate and materially change the working arrangements then BP/Rosneft are very strong players:
This is what cause the stock market tank today. Stock markets fall amid Russia-Ukraine war fears
Pedro Goncalves·Finance reporter
Mon, 24 January 2022, 8:57 am·4-min read
Biden already mentioned that he (US) could allow a “little” Russian invasion on Ukraine territory.
Germany, Central and Eastern Europe depends on Russian natural gas.
Crimea was invaded and occupied by Russia in 2014. No biggie so far.
So Ukraine is a sacrificial lamb for the NATO & EU & UK.
PS: Do anyone remember what happened to the people (and countries) responsible for the killing of 298 innocent civilian, from Netherlands, other European countries and from other countries ex-EU that were on the Malaysia Airlines plane shot down in the Ukraine-Russian border in 2014?
I think Poland is all out war if that happens. I know all these countries have been boosting their defences as I used to work in the defence industry. Polska have been looking into unmanned tanks.
Polish, Ukrainians, Bulgarians have balls though they will fight to the death. If this was France they would get steamrolled. Macron would bend over and ask Putin what he wants
UK is largest home of Russian oligarchs, including the Putin’s friends, like Roman Abramovich, other British football clubs owners, real estate tycoons.
First of all it is not just a number of soldiers game… that was extremely visible back in Crimea and Donbass when they went rogue. Russia can do a lot more with 100k than can Ukraine do with 200k. Just think about tanks, aerial superiority and so on.
Second why the hell would Ukraine do something that would give Russia an excuse to attack? Probably Putin with create an excuse rather then receive one from the Ukrainians.
Western media may be more alarmist because that is what sells at the moment, but being alarmist when the bomb start falling is too late.
In Romania most of the history connected to Russia isn’t very happy. Being neutral means absolutely nothing as the Budapest memorandum shows.
Russia’s problems are not related with the West getting close rather that their political and economical system is deeply flawed and the neighboring populations can clearly see the difference and now gravitating towards the West. Only force can keep them in their sphere of influence. The West is not expanding, it simply is the only option that is attractive.
