Russia - Ukraine

I think of all risks that could impact or impacting the stock market like Brexit, Inflation, stagflation, interest rate, china etc being discussed on this forum, there’s rarely any discussion of the possibilities of Russia incursion/invading/war with Ukraine - the impact it will have on the stock market.

Is it the case that Mr market has already priced it in the current market valuation or there’s absolute certainty that nothing is going to happen.

So if the unthinkable does happen, what are we investors looking at:

10 - 50% market crash
which stocks to buy/sell.
stock winners/losers
stock vs bonds vs gold vs crypto
Commodity plays

Am not here to start conflict propaganda but for people to share investment ideas if the worst does happen

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Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas and petroleum to the EU.

In fact Russia supplies the EU with more than 40% of its natural gas supply.

Given energy is crucial, and yes although it would hurt both sides if switched off, it is a significant reliance from one economic area to another.

Then check this:

The UK only has a storage capacity for 2% of its annual gas usage.

As a result, investing in energy could be very lucrative or a means to hedge against any impact.

The UK and probably the rest of the EU need:

1 More electricity production/storage.
2. More Hydrogen production/storage capacity.

And that’s not just to combat this, but help the environment as well.

The problem then is picking the leaders/innovators in this regard.

CERES Power?
ITM Power?
UK Wind?


I think energy is the biggest economic issue with this potential conflict, both in terms of how it impacts short term supply chains but also if the UK/US start doing sanctions. For my portfolio the biggest impact is BP as my only energy holding, and because it holds a very profitable 20%+ stake in Rosneft a Russian company so will the UK govt look at that as an issue, also BP has lots of operations in Russia working with Russia and Russian companies.

However if it doesnt escalate and materially change the working arrangements then BP/Rosneft are very strong players:

Could be a bumpy ride for me :smiley:

And me! I have invested heavily in bp. It’s been my strongest stock.

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This is what cause the stock market tank today. Stock markets fall amid Russia-Ukraine war fears
Pedro Goncalves·Finance reporter
Mon, 24 January 2022, 8:57 am·4-min read

Biden already mentioned that he (US) could allow a “little” Russian invasion on Ukraine territory.

Germany, Central and Eastern Europe depends on Russian natural gas.

Crimea was invaded and occupied by Russia in 2014. No biggie so far.

So Ukraine is a sacrificial lamb for the NATO & EU & UK.

PS: Do anyone remember what happened to the people (and countries) responsible for the killing of 298 innocent civilian, from Netherlands, other European countries and from other countries ex-EU that were on the Malaysia Airlines plane shot down in the Ukraine-Russian border in 2014?

At least the UK supplies weapons and supports unlike the coward EU, how pathetic are the Germans even praising Putin.

Where will be the red line for US/EU/UK/NATO?

The Russians could invade and occupy until which country, before the Western countries could go against that?

Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary…


I think Poland is all out war if that happens. I know all these countries have been boosting their defences as I used to work in the defence industry. Polska have been looking into unmanned tanks.

Polish, Ukrainians, Bulgarians have balls though they will fight to the death. If this was France they would get steamrolled. Macron would bend over and ask Putin what he wants

Don’t pull the nationalism card. :wink:

UK is largest home of Russian oligarchs, including the Putin’s friends, like Roman Abramovich, other British football clubs owners, real estate tycoons.

UK is famous for laundering Russian money.

So no one is innocent in this game.


Another UK-Russian link:

Not really considering BPs largest shareholders are American…I hope the Ukrainians slaughter them if they invade.

If Ukraine invades rebel territory of Donbass(Luhansk) then maybe chance for conflict with Russia.

Why on earth would Russia plan offensive with 100.000 troops near Ukraine, while same media reports Ukraine has 140.000 troops stationed.

It is again Western media gas lighting the situation.

Russia requested NATO to reject Ukraine membership. Which is root cause of tensions. Not Russia planning invasion.

Wonder how US would feel if suddenly mexico becomes Russias military base.


First of all it is not just a number of soldiers game… that was extremely visible back in Crimea and Donbass when they went rogue. Russia can do a lot more with 100k than can Ukraine do with 200k. Just think about tanks, aerial superiority and so on.

Second why the hell would Ukraine do something that would give Russia an excuse to attack? Probably Putin with create an excuse rather then receive one from the Ukrainians.

Western media may be more alarmist because that is what sells at the moment, but being alarmist when the bomb start falling is too late.

In Romania most of the history connected to Russia isn’t very happy. Being neutral means absolutely nothing as the Budapest memorandum shows.

Russia’s problems are not related with the West getting close rather that their political and economical system is deeply flawed and the neighboring populations can clearly see the difference and now gravitating towards the West. Only force can keep them in their sphere of influence. The West is not expanding, it simply is the only option that is attractive.

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Tom Nash recent video is super insightful

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Clearly I do not think Russia is a good guy here.

Just pointing facts that there is more then black and white at play here.

Lot of agendas and false narratives at play.

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Recently watched this Yale University event from 2018, but it sounds like it was shot in February 2022:

I personally don’t think any major power has the stomach to go to war with Russia, and Putin knows it, he’s constantly testing them.

Russia isn’t some middle eastern country, its a full on superpower, and Europe depends on it for their gas.

I mean they let a bio chemical agent loose in major British city and Britain did nothing.

They probably did it’s just not in the media. They are always doing things to each other.

I agree though Putin knows the West won’t do much. It reminds me a lot of Nevilles appeasement, good intentions but never ends well.

My stonks will live on when I’m posted to Ukraine. I’ll have to get your details maybe we can all meet on the front line.

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They’ll all need new windows after things calm down. You can do them a bargain!