In a day and age where tech and industrial indexes are posting one record close another, and while people talk about the loss of touch with reality and wall st. vs main st. while GDP of every country is tumbling, I woke up to find my biggest winning investment for the day is gold.
Yep, hit all time high and then smashed through it. 🤷 It feels quite strange
US dollar is falling so gold goes up, that is all. don’t think we should panic right…unless i’m missing something
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Yea, this was being whispered last week and was one of the influences in me returning to cash. Tech has risen so rapidly that I can’t see if not crashing monumentally. Analysts have been cautiously warning of a bubble in tech for a while now, and the markets seem to now be running for safe harbours to protect their investments. Add into this that America shows no sign of improving on the CoVid front until at least after the election and yet keeps raising. In the UK service sector is also building despite increasing localised lockdowns and negative news on the CoVid front also amongst rapid job loss announcements day on day.
The markets have become so HIGHLY disconnected I think it’s time to reanalyse your risk tolerances. For me, I’ve chosen to pull out and let the markets settle a while. If we crash, stocks etc will likely go lower then the march crash which means I’ll pull more for the money I had. If we dont then I’ve lost a few weeks of record profits. I can live with that because I’d sooner have a lower risk to my captial and by extension my wellbeing then run the risk of loosing more money then I’m comfortable with. Sure it would come back up in time, but based on historical bubbles we be looking at 6+ years for that to happen which for me isn’t a worthwhile balance in odds.
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Can articulate this one for me? Why is it likely that they’ll go lower?
its not really panic and its not really just USD vs gold all major currencies are carbon copy following each other, which again sounds normal when you consider the amount of QE by central banks.
I would not mind if DOW stopped posting records every day, and some pull backs and consolidation on indexes. XRT… the S&P retail index is posting records… in a pandemic lockdown (yes i know online retailers are still alive)
whats worrying is the gaping disconnect between market vs economy (yes i know market buys the future)
I agree tech is a bubble and there are too many monopolies dictating the market. I’ve invested in companies who are already near or hit historic lows, there isn’t much room for them to move lower. I’ve also made sure there is evidence of them ascending and following similar technical patterns with strong fundamentals behind them.
All my position stocks bar one or two are non tech. The only tech investments I have are swing trades.
yeah for about 5 years or more now they have been warning that one.
8 years on my count.
Furlough scheme in the UK ends in October and if you consider recent billion-pound losses of Barclays, Lloyds and Santander we will have big problems on this side of the pond. I assume things will start to crumble quite soon, especially with all the twats heading off to beaches and pubs not to mention having a government unable to make any decent decisions… As for the US, I reckon the 2008 credit crunch will look like a joke to what is to follow. That being said I still invest smaller amounts in my portfolio although I have dropped my contribution by 60-70% and am just waiting to buy stuff cheaper later on.
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Well, a second crash would be catastrophic to business who are already hurting. Many would look to pull back investments and move to safe havens which would decimate the markets overall. It mean that the raise we have seen this far is essentially a dead cat bounce of sorts. The truth is, many companies are still reading a good 30-50% down from where they were and have had to revise their growth downward.
Not only that were working with a known scenario this time and every report coming out is clear, a second wave for the UK will be worse then the first due to the damage left behind and failure to prepare. On top of that, public trust has been damaged meaning that people aren’t going to be as quick to act as they were last time which will extend out any damage done.
UK govt likely cannot support the economy as it did previously either meaning that more and more discomfort will start to pile up and economic damage will build. Add into this that were all so focused on Corona right now but were forgetting Brexit. It’s taken 5 months to get us to where we are now and we’re no where near solid grounding. A second crash would inevitably run into Brexit and compound damage further.
The way I see it, every warning light is red right now. If you need the money inside the next 5 years, possibly longer, I’d be contemplating cutting losses and pulling back.
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Why would a second crash hurt businesses? Most business don’t care about their share price or the share price of others not are they affected by it. The market does not equal the economy, they are completely decoupled.
The losses are all on paper as they are increasing their CET1 ratios. Most banks in the UK and US have never been so well capitalised and protected.
So, here’s my advice as someone who’s been through the cycle twice before. Don’t second guess the market, no-one can do it, don’t trust economic forecasts they’re grounded in fallacy.
The world isn’t ending, this probably isn’t the worst crash ever and remember to work hard every day on toughening up and accepting that even if the worst happens, the worst thing you can do is sell up and miss the best days of the years.
Rises, falls, corrections and booms are all party of a healthy market cycle and most of you (experiencing your first with real money in) will have to sit through as many as 10 more before you’re ready to cash out.
The best thing you can do is carry on.
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Original tech bubble of 2000 was 6 years so…
1995-2000
Sarah also worked the streets, to fund her T212 addiction
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The original tech bubble companies had no revenue and no hope of generating any. They’re not the same.
I usually find this lazy comparison from a hedge fund manager on CNBC.with a short against the industry.
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No these ones just have stupid PE ratios on already established companies, who already have monopolies over the market. Regulation and an end to laissez faire will end this.
PE ratio is a poor way of valuing growth stocks, especially companies that reinvest a lot of their profits into creating further growth.
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Please tell me how Google and Amazon can grow further without literally running our day to day lives? Please tell me my options other than Microsoft or Apple hmm maybe Linux thats really it. These companies can’t be allowed to grow further. This is catching on already, enjoy the fall. Competition is essential to drive competitive pricing and to promote further innovation, if a country wants to lead it doesn’t want monopolies much like nationalisation doesnt work.
Thanks for the pictures, it does make sense. I’ll double check my portfolio how it behaved during last crisis and then re-evaluate it. Nice to see different opinions on forum 
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