As the news starts to brighten, and hopefully we start to learn of the way out of lockdown, I expect the market, in general, will rise, but some companies will benefit more rapidly than others.
If you’ve got a UK Covid Recovery play, who is in it for you now? Who have you got weighted more heavily?
Well my core for this is HSBC, BP & TW, also DGE I guess to an extent. But they have been my play for months not just now, TW by far best performer, but all significantly up (double digits).
National Express and Taylor Wimpey mostly but quite low in my number of Stocks vs GAN and Tattoo Chef.
The likes of Tesco and Morrisons will be good regardless as people relied on them throighout.
The Restaurant Group would be an excellent Recovery Play but the Debt will deter a lot of people.
I collated all of the data for the FTSE350 showing where they are vs previous periods, ordered smallest to largest on their price difference vs 1 year ago.
Most interesting is probably the 1Y column, as that shows where they are now vs just before the Covid crash.
I guess where I’m looking is in the top third of that table, discounting any that are down for other reasons.
Interesting table mate thanks for that, I will take some time looking through. Seems based on that and the 1Y as you say there is (potentially) still more upside to my rebound plays:
BP 19th down 39%
HSBC 34th down 30%
TW 48th down 26%
Near term I expect HSBC to close the gap with 1Y by maybe 10-15% if the dividend news next week is deemed positive by market, ie reinstated sooner rather than later and at a good yield.
TW perhaps the most risky/volatile of mine from this price point as house prices may suffer near term depending on Chancellor policy on stamp duty etc in a couple weeks.
BP I expect to have peaks an troughs with oil as always but dont see too much downside from this price point, I dont think we wil see sub 250p.
The pie I settled on, targetting the UK recovery, Comments welcome!
www.trading212.com/pies/l7a5BmmhCspqq9QwX5aHwjdJjPW7
What do you guys think of IAG?
I think they look like a bargain at the moment. I would likely have put much more in them in this pie, but I already have a substantial holding. in IAG.
I do, however, think that they will take longer to recover to near their pre-COVID levels than some of the others in the pie.
Morses club, Shoe Zone, Beazley
To be brutal I just dont like the UK as a recovery play across the board, not many companies here I rate higher than ones abroad. As said above a few targeted industries like Oil majors, Banking, Housebuilders, but I think many retailers and other business no guarantee they will come back strong.
That’s interesting. Which shares abroad are you in/considering for recovery?
Well many of them aren’t recovery plays as such as have gained back lots or all of their value now from March lows. What I meant was the UK will recover less well or has gone down much more than others so just being careful of that. I think UK still has some bargains, but question is which are value traps or value plays. US has issues too but mostly other way with lots being potentially overvalued by some small/large margins.
CRUISES.
CCL
NCLH
RCL
you cant tell me all those nana’s and grandad’s aren’t buzzing to get back on there yearly cruise…
And Saga.
I hold SAGA and CCL listed on the LSE.
Might be good to diversify slightly by splitting some into NCLH and RCL, although the exchange rate is a concern there, no?
If the US market has essentially recovered already, than if you want to play the recovery you need to look else where.
The UK market as a whole (not just the heavily COVID affected companies) appears to be lagging the rest of the world and, therefore, looks good value to me.
Just got CCL and MARS. Though I expect a lot of stocks to rebound they stood out for me early on. Already up 58% and 91%, respectively. They’ve been higher but then we went back into national lockdown. I expect they’ll increase further after lockdown.
I also went with ABB thinking that people would be able to get back to work. Up 38% so far. Withholding tax makes me cry.
I think the UK will recover much better than Europe. We will be out of lockdown sooner and we will have less debt to pay. The EU is a collective that will have to bear the burden of Covid until every state member is on their feet, many of those countries were already heavily indebted and many are tourist reliant…
I have close my US orders, they’re going too fast. I was hoping to get into AAL and LUV and others but it seems they’re reaching fast pre-covid prices.
I agree with you guys. I think the UK has still some great space for profit and especially cruises
yeah true that… although the ‘FX impact’ isn’t always the most appealing to look at lol
But yes I agree to diversify here
Yeah absolutely, I avoid investing in EU pretty much, all I meant is the UK as a whole market I am less sure than even the arguably overpriced US or the potential continued growth in emerging markets in Asia/S.America. I like the UK but for certain stocks not as say a FTSE 100 index fund or whatever. I am assuming the big UK stocks do well in rebound hence I own many of the largest HSBC, ULVR, BP, DGE, GSK, But I wouldn’t want to own the whole index personally.