UK Housing stocks

Investing
#1

Couldnt find a discussion about these, but curious on peoples thoughts on companies such as Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon etc.

My current opinion is these are companies which will survive, and that the intrinsic need for housing in UK will remain strong. Factor in better times where strong dividends return and these stocks seem very good value right now. I only have a tiny amount in these right now but thinking next couple months to increase those, OR wait it out longer to see what UK economy/virus does.

Would love to hear anyones thoughts whether you are long or not on these right now.

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#2

I’m long on these and have been in on them for a few months. Basically since they each released H1 trading updates which most of them dipped after releasing even though the underlying message was strong. I’ve sold on some highs and bought on some dips but kept a core holding of Persimmon (the pick of the bunch), bellway, crest, Barrett, redrow and vistry. I’m up on all at the mo apart from vistry. I think all have a lot of room to grow especially with U.K. focus on build Britain back and some are even paying dividends still and others will return next year. Solid in my view to make up a part of portfolio and still a decent upside from current prices.

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#3

Thanks for the info, why Persimmon pick of the bunch in your view? I notices you didn’t mention Taylor Wimpey? that is one I have been interested in (with Persimmon/Barrett) and didn’t see too many alarm bells.

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#4

I think Taylor is good and saw they had a good day today. I genuinely believe the sector will do well but thought to spread across builders. When I did my research a few months ago some views were more favourable to the others; and persimmon in general with cash reserve, size, plot locations, quality etc. I don’t think they took government help schemes, plus they still paid a small dividend which is very rare and shows strength. Their financials look very strong. They will emerge from this very well I think.

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#5

Ah ok I will delve into Persimmon even more then, I know they are solid company just right now they have recovered well so perhaps less chance of big upside from current price, but worth hedging with a few companies in UK housing for sure.

#6

I have some in Taylor Wimpey and Countryside Properties.

TW is a good Value play and CSP is a good separate House Building Company for Country Housing.

#7

I held Taylor Wimpey as part of a high-yield portfolio which I sold just before the pandemic struck (thankfully). For me, it was a bit of a toss-up between TW. and PSN in this sector at the time, and headlines around ludicrous executive compensation at the latter tipped the balance. At these prices, I’m half-tempted to jump back in, but I’m focusing more on long-term growth nowadays.

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#8

Interesting Taylor Wimpey up a few percent in first few hours of trading today, will be interesting to see where it closes and over tomorrow as in last few days alone its about 10% up.

Sadly its only just over 1% of my small portfolio haha, but have earmarked next funds in to look at housing more closely.

#9

It’s question of the recession for me, if you look 1 year from now, what are the effects of a recession on these stocks?

If Joe B can’t get a mortgage to buy a house, then how does this affect Taylor Wimpey in regards to their developments?

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#10

Completely agree, not a safe bet but for some like Barret and TW they are very low historically, so question is not about ploughing lots in now, but perhaps dripping in some funds over that year. For example rumours that stamp duty cut may be extended, and that help to buy extended, these both suddenly boost the housing market further.

As I said housing currently like 1% of my holdings, but considering bumping it up to like 5% over coming months as could be significant upside growth and dividend wise in 2-5 year range.

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#11

They will hit some hard times if the recession is bad and unemployment hits. For sure and maybe even house market collapse if lending gets crazy at high LTVs for people to then lose their jobs, default etc. Can’t see rates increase any time soon in next good few years tho. This won’t happen in the next year tho. A year of boom first I think and maybe not even as bad doom and gloom

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#12

Taylor Wimpey have been buying up a lot of land during COVID so it is in a better position than the competition.

Although they did some Financial Errors back in 2014 or something which affected their share price for a long time (just like Under Armour which is still trying to recover).

Long term, they should be fine and it really is dependant on people buying houses in the future. I only have 26 shares in it and wished I put in a little more as it is a great speculative play at this rate.

#13

Well never too late, its up 10-15% from its lowest but it has a long way to go, back to normal would be about double what it is now, not to mention once they resum dividend (next year partly, maybe not till 2022 fully).
Like you I only have a small amount, but when I next put my monthly amount in I will put some in TW for sure.

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#14

I’ve avoided housing/construction, I’ve got McCarthy stone in my watchlist though, just hope enough elderly left to use them. Hehe.

#15

TW up massively today (more than vaccine boost for other stocks) and took other housing stocks with it, due to them announcing good profit next year and dividend news.

Just a shame I didnt have more haha

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#16

You can’t have a housing shortage, all time low interest rates and a housing crash its simply not possible. The government fully understands that the property market is a major contributor to our economy not just for the newbuild, sale and purchase but the renovation market too, they have and will continue to do everything to keep the property market going.
With brexit on the horizon foreign investors will continue to pile in regardless of the taxes in place to stop them.
Check out the data for house price inflation over 50 years and then talk about a potential house price crash! If there were such a thing people wouldn’t be now struggling more than ever to get on the ladder

#17

Never understood why people buy new builds, no disrespect but they are terrible. Seriously overpriced and shocking quality. They prey on H2B 25% deposit and inflate their prices because of it. I would never consider a house post 2010 odd. You talk about no potential of a crash I think there is a possibility, huge shortage of rentals as landlords are no longer interested in rent due to nanny government and their covid protection increasing taxes etc…you need to consider other dynamics. Im not touching house builders with a barge pole.

Also on an extreme note, will it become more competitive? Will margins decrease? Wil previous office space be used for flats? Will high streets be turned into community hubs?

Nothing is safe everything can change.

#18

I agree, however the companies that build them make serious cash, so stock wise I think they will continue to do well.

#19

Even if they start the expensive process of converting offices/commercial into residential it still doesn’t solve the housing crisis and since borrowing is so cheap why would they?
Rental arrears are a problem regardless of the pandemic yet btl brokers are over run with applications so explain that one?
All the top builders i know are converting large proportions of new builds into btl so they obviously are confident that 1. The market is still rising and 2. The demand for rental properties is there.
You talk about taxes but those that were skinny dipping with interest only btl portfolios were causing the issues in the first place, you dont build a portfolio without investing a decent amount of cash in the first place.

#20

From my personal experience and being in the process of moving I beg to differ. The initial bottleneck resulted in sky high house prices, these are now starting to level off and drop after the stamp duty euphoria. On top of that I’ve noticed many landlords have been cashing in on these high prices as rent isn’t so lucrative. Supporting that, the fact estate agents are depserate for landlords in my area. Yes there is a rental market but landlords aren’t interested. I myself looked at buying to rent, not worth the hassle.

Also don’t you think with proposed capital gains tax increases this might further push landlords to sell…

This isn’t necessarily bad for the economy it will just play out different.

Also your statement on interest rates is irrelevant when unemployment is at an all time high lol.

Personal experience, yes, I am no expert but it’s what I’m seeing. Could be demographics…