A Friday Night Game

Over the weekend, nominate FOUR Symbols for Instruments you think will do well.
Post Your list before Sunday midnight.

Growth to be measured from TUESDAY opening bell of NYSE,
IE 14:30 UK time (UTC + 1)

We can’t include Monday because it’s too late now to get your order in.

You cannot include Leveraged stocks/etfs/etps because they aren’t available in some jurisdictions.

Next Friday Night, therefore, work out your 4-day gain and tell us if you think you’ve won. (Add up the percentages and divide by 4).

The winner gets,
:sunglasses: :sunglasses: :sunglasses: :sunglasses: to feel clever. :sunglasses: :sunglasses: :sunglasses: :sunglasses:
And everybody may benefit in their pocket, from your suggestion.

I’ll go first, to get it out of the way:

AAPL
GOOG
META
NVDA

(Moderators feel free to delete or modify - I won’t be cross.)

Any errors /suggestions can be to me - I can edit the post to keep the thread tidy.

I don’t expect to do well over such a short period of time, it’s literally a coin flip.

But I do like feeling smart so I’ll go for something stupidly volatile.

$NNOX
$U
$MELI
$AXSM

Alright I’ll bite the coinflip.

NE, OXY, SPG, COIN.

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As a side note i’m fairly sure this is not a good way to work out the actual gain you said you are interested in and is a common mistake when say calculation of S&P 500 returns over time. I’ll try an example with these percentage returns (could be mistakes but hope idea is there)

  1. -20%. 2. +10%. 3. +123% 4. -80%. Add them up and divide by four = 33% gain. Great. But if you were actually to have actually invested say 2k each 8k total start. Returns: 1. -400 2. +200 3. +2460. 4. -1,600. Add them to 660 gain. Total now: 8,660, only 8.25% gain not 33%!

Some reading on this if anyone is interested:

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

2 Likes

For daily percentage, arithmetic average is a close enough approximation of geometric average.

Moreover, order of significance is preserved, and as far as we’re concerned, it is the order that matters here, not the terminal value.

But in a more general setting, you are correct; arithmetic operations are a relic of the financial world pre-computer.

2 Likes

Hi. Not sure about GOOG for this week simply because they have just had a 10% rise but long term I hold.

MSFT took a bit of a battering and on Friday gained back some ground so certainly if the measurement was from open Monday I might include MSFT.

A couple of higher risk candidates are PRST and MVIS. Both have achieved strong spikes in the past but have fallen back. I’ve read several articles suggesting MVIS as a long term hold and PRST has some competition but long term could also be big. PRST was rising a bit on Friday so maybe its going back up. MVIS wasn’t as strong but still has potential.

I’m not convinced by KMK management but the tech is said to have lots of potential and they have deals for the tech. They trashed the share price in early May with a heavily discounted fund raising at 5p and the share price has stuck there until Friday when it started to rise. Thus despite considering them high risk I’ll include KMK. Again I wish this started Mon open (not sure why not)

Struggling to think of a fifth and I’ve got a load of stuff to do this evening so I’ll just go with AMD. Great potential and lots of the other semiconductor companies jumped up at the end of last week but AMD hasn’t yet. I was also tempted to suggest TSM

So my choice
MSFT
AMD
PRST
MVIS
KMK

1 Like

No it’s not!, it’s 33 if you DON’T divide by four. The bets are concurrent, not sequential

I think I am confused but I’m not sure. I think you’re referring to compounding, which isn’t happening here., so that’s not relevant.
You’re adding up the amounts of money won, I just used %. One could do either.

One could just add up the percentages, it would still give a number we could use.
The “Average” method, still works for when friend @WakeMeUp chooses 5 instruments instead of four ;)…

Change the amount invested into each as £100, it’s easier.

Using the percentage figures
-20 + 10 + 123 -80 = 33% Div by 4 = 8.25
Average is 8.25% gain.

Use the money amounts, you get
80 + 110 + 223 + 20 = 433, still 8.25% gain on 400…

Or a total gain of £33.


The compounding thing (as in the reference) is relevant if the proceeds of one sale go into the next. so eg 1% per day for 200 days isn’t 200%, it’s 732%
And 60% earned in 50days isn’t 1.2% per day,
it’s 0.9444% per day.

On a calculator: using ^ to mean the “power” button which has y with a superscript x

1.009444 ^ 50 = 1.6 ( 0.944% for 50 days is 60% growth)

or 1.6 ^(1/50) = 1.0009444.


Geometric mean isn’t particularly useful to us lot, I think.
If you had sequential wins of 4%, 8%, 18% and 20% that looks like 50% gain( 4+8 + 18 +20)
But it isn’t.
it’s 1.04 x 1.08 x 1.18 x 1.2 = 59% increase,

The mean gain is not 59/4 (which would be 14.75%)
you’d want to work out the geometric mean, which would need the fourth root of 1.59,
1.59^(1/4) = 1.1229, so 12.29%

HTH someone!

Go big or go home… :laughing:

CINE
CVNA
BOO
BYND

1 Like

You are totally right, I realised my post was trash after I posted it as there was no compounding but couldn’t see my stupid mistake (didn’t divide the percentage) nice explanation thanks and sorry to confuse anyone!

Sorry I picked 5 by mistake (in a rush). Cut AMD so its MSFT, PRST, MVIS, KMK. Rather high risk selection but since its only pride at stake…

Edit: oh can we amend the rules to sell midweek haha so if something rises we can bank the gain and not risk the pull back :slight_smile:

What do others think? You can’t pick the selling point with hindsight, so how about we allow a virtual Trailing-Stop-Loss, active at peak minus 0.5% ??
That would mean that if the price went up 5% and back 1% every day, you’d exit at 4.5% and not be able to reinvest. So, your choice. Shall we say you make that choice on Sunday and cannot change it?

It would be a good tactic if you’re expecting a beneficial set of results, which we’d all like to know about
So if that’s the case, tell us all about it so we can steal your tip with real money though it would obviously be ungentlemanly to use it for the game :flushed:

I excluded the initial Monday from the proceedings, so people can’t use the previous Friday’s results and after-market excitement to name a stock they wouldn’t at that point be able to buy.

Let’s not forget we aren’t in REAL competition so any predictive tips are good. :clown_face: :crazy_face: :innocent: :rofl: :money_mouth_face: :money_mouth_face: :money_mouth_face: :money_mouth_face: :money_mouth_face: :money_mouth_face:

Just for clarification I wasn’t suggestion to call a sell with the benefit of hindsight. Rather if you see a strong rise you can call if finish that share at the close that day (assuming it was called during trading) or open next day if called after close. Essentially you have to call a future time to exit not retrospective.

Monday open to Friday close seems a good default to me because if I analyse charts over the weekend I can buy at the market open on Monday

I say no, because the game is about predicting the future, doing what you can do in the real market, not eg using stocks which have already risen since Friday close.

AMC recently: Results were after market Friday, very good - much excitement.
Pre-market trading was very bullish and the price rocketed, and gapped on open above a price you could have got. I know because I tried!
Over the weekend, you can’t buy at the Friday close price.
To claim AMC for the game would have been cheating. It wouldn’t have been related to reality. The price shot up 50+% and would have likely made you a “winner”, though nobody could actually have made the order.

If we started from Monday Open, it would be an internet research for the stock which was already high in premarket…
So it’s a definite NO from me!!!

Closing early - well I think it’s in the spirit of the game to say you cannot do anything with knowledge from hindsight, just like the market
So you can’t say “! sold at $£xxxx” unless it was part of a pre-declared strategy. If you decide Wednesday night that you should have sold at the Close, and the stock gaps down before Thursday open, that’s tot achievable in the market so NOT OK.
You can only declare a stop loss BEFORE the event, just like the real market!

In reality you MIGHT be able to buy during the Monday morning rise, but that’s getting too complicated. You can tell us about it but I can;t see a clean way to include it

So what I would say you CAN do, if your stock is tanking, is SELL EARLY, as long as you announce it in advance - just like the real market!

I hope that makes sense!

In fact, right now I’m looking to find things which might jump on open, but I know I won’t get the
best price because anything really good will “gap”.

Let’s change the game slightly :wink:
Four small cap stocks you think will do well :slight_smile:

It hasn’t been running a week and you want to change it?!

Personally I don’t mind what size your headgear is, only how much more it’s worth at the end of the week…

Thanks all for taking part

Ta -Daa

Opening 1st August, to close of 4th August
Do we need a stewards inquiry?!! Complaints on a postcard to Bogi.

@Punting:
Aapl -7.2
Goog -3.3
Meta -2.49
NVDA -4.35
Average -4.3%

@Scrooge_McCodf
NNOX -8.46
U -12.2
Meli (wins an award ? for the highest single) 7.52
AXSM -6.08
Average -4.18%

@Zergui
NE 2.98
Oxy 0.62
SPG -5.21
COIN -10.52
Average -3%

@WakeMeUp
MSFT -2.26
PRST -16.7
MVIS -13.0
KMK -14.07
Average -11.5

@topher
CINE -100
CVNA 0
BOD 0.86
BYND -8.16
Average -26.8

@topher gets a wipeout for CINE - DELISTED, so the percentage for that one is -100

Our glorious winner, for an Empire Building -3%, Is :innocent: :sunglasses: :cowboy_hat_face: :birthday: :birthday: @Zergui.

@Punting and @WakeMeUp share the dungeon of penury, for not one that was any damned good whatsoever.

Can we be less pathetic next week?
I hope so.

2 Likes

well except that KMK had a 25% rising during the week but closed the week where it started on Monday so I’ll happy take my midweek 25% (added to the 20% it gained on Friday so I netted 50% profit on that)

Nooo, that’s was against the ROOLZ. You cannot use hindsight!
Get back here in the pit of shame!

Many of the stocks went up then down again, so you’d have to say you were going to use a trailing stop loss, as was mentioned.

This is one of @topher’s which managed to spend 4 days going ballistic , only to end exactly where it started! CVNA

image
He’d have won about 10% on that with the right offset

In future, we’ll have to say we’re going to use a TLS (Even though this silly platform doesn’t have them on Invest) AND say what the offset is.

So you’d only get to use it once, and it might get triggered 10 seconds into Tuesday morning.

Another real thing could be a Limit order - were you say the minimum you’d sell for, so it would sell when it got there.

No rebuying - or it gets too complicated!

Are we talking about the same KMK? Kromek
50%?
The dotty horiz line is 10% above the close
image

Damn COIN really took me down, I would have BLASTED everyone without it ahah :rofl: