Interesting comments so far!
Although , the sample size is small till now, I donât get a sense of âeuphoriaâ in the responses to date which keeps the sentiment in check for my category killers! I donât see the stocks as consensus holdings still so it feels like there is more room to go!
Nevertheless, I am seeing more of an acceptance of these stocks now that they are up huge a lot - going back 4 months ago, there were several naysayers who have gone somewhat muted and âquietâ.
And this isnât a game of âI told you soâ⊠thereâs enough of that on Twitter and all the bleeding Tesla posts. Each to their own.
Hopefully @pipo can come on and offer his thanks - fairly certain he made a pie out of these suggestions.
I think people get bored of trying to say that theyâd seen previous tech over-valuations before. I certainly wouldnât interpret reduced comment as validation or weakening of sentiment - that is classic confirmation bias!
The point remains that you might be right in the long run but you donât know that at the moment. Inevitably some tech businesses will do very well in the long run - the likes of Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft etc etc prove that but there were also a lot of tech companies that got wildly overvalued (for similar reasons to a lot of your reasoning) that didnât make it. Of course if you time things right then you can make a lot of money riding that wave providing you get on and off at the right time, but statistically people arenât so good at getting the timing right.
Iâm not old enough to remember the dotcom crash but there does seem to be many factors that resonate with that era. It is a strange one because there is still money to be made here, but with risk also and your point in timing is correct.
Iâm also still conflicted on these hyper growth stocks. The fundamentals donât add up. There seems to be the next 10+ years of growth factored into these stocks.
That said, I do have a small position in TSLA as I do see value in the future. I appreciate the fundamentals of this business currently do not add up. (Queue insults). But if they do near what they constantly talk about the TAM is huge.
As an experiment on the growth front I have picked 3 companies I like (Salesforce, Square, Virgin Galactic) as an experiment Iâm going to keep to 5% of my portfolio.
damn these are risky, category killer Fastly just dropped 28% after hours. yikes.
Tik tok wonât be using them apparently.
Just using them less than expected apparently.
Thatâs madness the impact that just that news has had.
I think itâs a good entry point, 2-3 millions $ less expected revenue doesnât justify a ~30% drop.
I think it pumps back up soon. But an opportunity to buy more nonetheless.
My longest long - this is when you find out whether you have the right mindset or not and whether you understand what Fastlyâs really is!
For those with perspective, the stock is back to levels last seen âŠyes âŠjust over 2 weeks ago!
Oct update? Still bullish on Fastly?
Hi Joey,
Update went on Twitter yesterday for my portfolio. Still holding $FSLY - it is in the penalty box for me short term (coming few months) badly hit by TikTok issue but long term thesis has not changed for me. I need to see execution from senior management now on compute and SignalScience cross selling should be huge tailwinds but they need to execute.
Appreciate the conviction. Obviously a lot depends on their proactivity now - are you eyeing any other companies up that could potentially take their crown in the edge cloud space, should they not react well, in your eyes?
Yep - Markets have proven me wrong so far on Fastly as far as price action is concerned short term . Iâve been bullish on Cloudflare for several months and this is also one of my top 10 holdings that competes in the similar edge cloud space:
Almost pulled thr trigger on NET myself a while back but didnât get around to the DD so never fired.
No worries Joey - I donât think it late with edge cloud still - there will be more than 1 winners in this space and I am backing both Cloudflare and Fastly as complementary bets not just as alternatives but Fastly losing TikTok means the headwinds for Fastly over the coming Qs will be tough but Fastly is far much more than just a TikTok and I feel people are misunderstanding Fastly today the same way as they did Roku before its most recent 100% run
I quite like nCino. Did a DD write up on them a while back when they were about to IPO: nCino: DD and IPO information
Main problem is that they are dependent on larger firms taking them on. So the growth time frame can drag out as a result. Long term I reckon theyâd be okay, just need to make a name for themselves first; competing against the likes of Oracle and, whilst I would say they are better, you have to convince the big banks of that.
Did it reach a suitable price though?
