I added some more funds to it so lowered my average overall portfolio %
And I only started it yesterday Monday with markets opening
I have a near identical pie! Replaced some of your SaaS with SE, TTD, AMZN, & Visa though. Nice!
Curios what your thoughts are on AYX vs MDB? Looking to add either one to the pie
I just hope you keep posting this performance updates when bubble burstsā¦
Ddog, fsly, crwd are just prime example of bubble startups similar to dot.com era.
Not a single profitable year so far, valuation in bilions, net income in negative.
I agree, Iāve written about this before but over the last 3-4 months it has been so easy to win and get great gains because of all of the helicopter money flying around. Newer investors have this feeling of invincibility and show severe signs of complacency.
That tweet above reeks of it. The portfolio can be up, because practically anything is, but it doesnāt mean youāve bought any decent businesses.
I watch Joseph Carlson because he Talks about his portfolio consistently, starting from when it was a year old to the current state, regardless over whether it is up or down.
Any portfolio that has yet to age simply isnāt worth taking seriously because itās a lucky victim of successfully ātiming the marketā to some degree and the returns are not representative of anything, or even guaranteed should you keep on going over a meaningful time-frame.
Hi fauxylr, both mongo and Alteryx are great businesses and covered in my colour of the sea stock universe I look at.
Comparing the two, both have similar revenue growth rates but Alteryx edges out mongo currently as it has better unit economics, efficiency rates and FCF.
Verdad , Donald Duck,
Firstly thank you for doing the public service - it is your money and you should do your own research!
Bring overextended and having a 20-30% correction is one thing and being called a bubble another! I am so glad people think it is a bubble and these businesses are bubbles that would burst because they myopically look at just one metrics : last 12 months net income! And ignore forward looking metrics!!! I would be worried if everyone thought there was no bubble! Yes it is a bubble if you can continue growing your revenue at 50%+ rate with improving unit economics , efficiency rates of 50% or more in fact 106% for crowdstrike is incredible! Yes it is a bubble if your corporate clients are willing to spend 30% more with you this year vs last year giving you an incredible LTVs! Nevertheless I am not here to convince anyone to invest in any stock, I share because I love doing stock research in my private time and discovering future gems that have robust businesses in my mind - everyone should do their own research before they invest, itās your money not mine! As I said in my blog before, I invested in much lower prices than today in fact even a 50% nasty pullback means I am positive on many positions before they march forwards again! I am NOT married to any of these stocks and if unit economics start starting trending to deteriorate I will be moving my capital into alternatives that offer better bang for my buck in additiin to closely monitoring the trend and pivots I cover in my colour of the sea!
Sorry, but your title is clickbait at its finestā¦ To even have remote value at current prices this companies should grow 500%-1000% YoY for next 5 years minimumā¦
I didnāt check all companies because I got sick after looking at DDOG/FSLY/CRWDā¦
You should highlight this is all high speculative investment with possibilities to go 0 valueā¦
At best 0.01% of companies will be acquired by the M&A giants in industry, rest will be buried in sea of startupsā¦
I will gladly have this chat down the line say 10-15 years from nowā¦ Here is the FCF charts for DDOG/CRWD. P/FCF off 500-1000, sounds like reasonable buy.
Here is the return rate if DDOG keeps average P/FCF of 4XX.
Sample of good growth/tech stock. Amzn, even at current valuation, if it keeps the average growth, you can expect 25% Annual returnsā¦
As I said, Everyone needs to do their own research! Some find these businesses speculative at best (not me!) and thatās fine with me bodes well for my future returns!
Here on to the unit economics now:
CrowdStrike:
- Operating cash flow of $66m up from $16m a year ago!
- Operating cash flow margin of 43%
- For the year, operating cash flow was $100m up from a loss of $23m a year ago!
- FCF margin of 34%!!!
- Net profit margin of -3% improved from -35% a year ago!!!
Growth in subscription customers was 116%ā¦ I could go on and onā¦similarly for all other conpanies which is why I said to people to do their own research and two back pocket tips for people: - It is what is happening at the margin/delta change for high growth business that matters not static metrics especially if they are backwards looking
- The smart money looks at non-GAAP for software unlike GAAP figures for old economy stocks!
Looking forward to see the results in 12ā¦ 18ā¦ 24 months
Itās all time stamped! As I said in my substack blog post that I will be hugely disappointed if they are not higher from todayās levels in several years from now! No one has a magic crystal ball, I am not married to these stocks and will drop/add stocks To/from my portfolio when the thesis changes and/or I lose confidence in the business results! I monitor these businesses closely and I donāt want people to BLINDLY FOLLOW ME - PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND INVEST IN WHAT MAKES YOU SLEEP WELL AT NIGHT! I am not an investment or a financial advisor!
Looking at crowdstrike profile from business perspective, as they are in field I work on, vendor cybersecurity.
I donāt see traditional type of companies working with āstartupsāā¦
However in this day&age of free cash, I can see a lot of disruptors/tech companies buying security tools of up and coming companies. But knowing how most of small fishes get bought out by the sharksā¦
Maybe it will be good target for M&A for likes of Cyberark, Broadcom etc.
If it lives up to the growth/hype expectationsā¦
Interesting you say that (and your background is really helpful to know as I have no cyber background) because that strengthens my thesis even further as for CrowdStrike:
- 49 of the Fortune 100 are their clients!
- 11 of the top 20 banks
- 40 of the top 100 global companies.
- The clients are spending 30% more this year than they did last year!!!
What an incredible company , they must be doing something right!!!
Anyways, I gotta get back to my day work now before being sacked! Done for the day.
I only noticed Credit Suisse/Goldmanās Sachs from āseriousā companies on the list, with undisclosed lenght or size of coverage of products used.
Both of those use Broadcom security products (ex CA Technologies). So it is hard to say if this reference is relevantā¦
I copied these haha! Just for fun, see what happens aint gna hurt my pocket it it doesnāt but if we see some nice gains, Iāll copy @Cashurkash and donate 25% to charity! We should all set up a T212 charity or something!
I have to say that this is concerning to me that some users of this forum have started to copy me blindly even if it is just for fun!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH I CANāT STRESS ENOUGH. For the sake of transparency, you can see below that i am long CrowdStrike from much lower levels and I have been very fortunate that I got really good entries with most of the stocks in my portfolio at the moment!
Here it is for transparency so please dont blindly follow anyone as it is your own hard earned money!:
Calm down! If we copy and it fails then thatās on us, donāt post something and expect people not to copy. Like I said itās for fun and it will NOT hurt my pocket. I obviously am doing research on these stocks as they at all time highs, I understand but you need to understand people will copy!
Be right back, putting my LIFE SAVINGS INTO THIS LIST OF COMPANIES NOW
Thatās why I started my channel now when my portfolio just started, shows full transparency and the entire journey, not just the end
Slightly off-topic here but a lot of folk referring to pies being set up.
Is beta testing finished or are these pies set up under the beta?