With a hard brexit on the cards Im not betting against it…!
The current negotiated Withdrawal Agreement isn’t a ‘hard Brexit’ so the risk is certainly reduced.
A recession will come at some point in the future. Regardless of when it is Brexit will still be blamed.
I think the trigger for a recession would be the fallout from Trump failing to get reelected. At the moment that also seems unlikely but the markets will be bumpy in the Autumn.
The uncertainty has people spooked and companies have to make more than 1 contingency plan. If media didn’t make such a massive deal out of brexit, chances are there would be a lot less public fear regarding the topic and deals would have been easier to draft and submit.
I think any coming recession will be the result of something greater than either trump or brexit can claim responsibility for. Global markets were already having a slow growth year in 2019 so it’s not unrealistic to see a recession come during this next year, but its not necessarily going to be a large one or devastating to the majority of people even when it does arrive.
perhaps if it does arrive in 2020, it’ll be at the far end when we are looking to welcome 2021. it could be rather subdued and just be what is needed to push another 4-5 more year of bull runs.
My worry is that the actions taken by the Federal Reserve and banks have caused a lot of this later portion of bull run on hollow valuations to be prolonged further than it should have and that this will lead to a larger fallout once a recession does arrive and the market tries to correct its valuations.
I would welcome a year or 2 that seem to have bearish markets if it was the result of countries and companies solving their piled up debts to bring growth statistics back into healthy ranges. As an investor it would be a perfect time to build up a greater portfolio balance in my favoured stocks for once the bullish years return.