I think shell will rebound to 18/19 by end of 2021.
and why? Oil prices seem to be pretty depressed right now as do the refining/chemical margins. Gas prices did show some hope.
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The markets are due a correction, tech is overpriced.
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Oil majors have been reducing capex, you can see this, look at FCF-S Shell, less exploration/extraction. Also smaller firms are going insolvent or being consumed by larger ones. Simple supply/demand.
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This is an event, this isnāt life as we know it. People will start flying again, and they wonāt be electric planes.
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Large parts of the world are still underdeveloped (BRICS) and will stick with their infrastructure for the time being.
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Not every use of oil can be replaced.
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Decarbonisation is being developed.
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Old money wonāt curl over and die.
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They will develop and evolve and they are going into other markets, utility provider, another downstream role etc.
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Look at BP extreme forecast (theyāre very bearish on their own industry) , even their most extreme forecast of oil dieing predicts 80mbpd for at least another decade.
But I might be wrong, who knows.
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I want to look at Shell and others in the industry with an optimism, but you have to keep in mind how predictions and disruptive technology works. So donāt get complacent:
In 1980, McKinsey & Company was commissioned by AT&T (whose Bell Labs had invented cellular telephony) to forecast cell phone penetration in the U.S. by 2000. The consultantās prediction, 900,000 subscribers, was less than 1% of the actual figure, 109 Million. Based on this legendary mistake, AT&T decided there was not much future to these toys. A decade later ā¦ AT&T had to acquire McCaw Cellular for $12.6 Billion.
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The thing is natural gas is the intermediate prior to a full transition which is years off, forecasts for this project huge growth.
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Shell revenue was almost half from gas so there is some potential there.
Theyāve been investing more into it as well.
Iām with Shell (RDSB) for the longterm - I really do believe itās going to bounce back, and with the current price at what it is I think itās a brilliant opportunity to get involved investing with them. Shell makes up 9.37% of my portfolio (total portfolio value is Ā£8,868). When things do eventually return to normal, the oil price is going to go back up! 
It great to see a lot of opinions on this topic since I started teh thread. I sold all off, took a hit as I needed to use my money for other potential stocks. I invested it in iShares Clean Energy ETF (INRG) - check the growth over the last 10 days!!! So my loss has been recovered now through this ETF. I think I will go back into Shell now again for the long term as I think it has bottomed out. I really appreciate everyoneās opinion on this as I was going through a dark place with the continual slide but lesson learned for all stocks - cut your losses - research - reinvest. Good luck everyone. Paul
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Thanks for sharing your thoughts Paul, always appreciate reading what others are doing/planning with their investments.
I just started investing with INRG yesterday! I got 10 units and itās already up 6.12% - clean energy is obviously going to be the future, but I believe that future is further off than many people think, hence why Iām still keeping Shell and will be averaging down as I go.
Good luck to you too 
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This is part of the reason why i think there will always be value in Shell. They should have enough resources to buy them selves out of the old markets and into the new. In the mean time Shell is betting on āthe transition fuel of natural gasā.
INRG, 51% in the last 3 months nice. big jump around 24th sept. I think Iāve missed the boat on that. Congratulations to you Paul with your recovery 
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4.10 onwards from the man himself
Mic drop
Your comparison is nothing alike. We are not talking iPhones and Nokiaās 
. Combustion engines and fossil fuels are the fabric of our economy, that aināt changing over night. When it does change, the big boys, the old money, will be leading it.
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Weāre talking about Oil and energy companies and not car manufacturers. Please cut down your post and just link to the article that is off-thopic.
Donāt make this a Tesla thopic.
Oil will remain until there is something that can compete on a like for like cost basis.
Pick one industry - cars. What is the like for like new for new price right now - 20k for a Smart EQ that can do 70 miles - not practical for most. In comparison, a Dacie Sandero is 7k, and can do what 500-600 miles on a single tank that can be filled in minutes. Most people probably wouldnāt buy either, but serve as a good baseline for comparison.
We are getting there having more environmentally friendly transport, but are nowhere near. Oil consumption will steadily return, perhaps not quite to the same level I suspect in the next year/two, and then steadily decline from there.
As long as oil is cheaper, it will continue to be profitable. Especially for more of the emerging market nations. Just remember, not so indifferent, but itās estimated that 60% of China 's power consumption is provided by coal.
I cant see RDS returning to the Ā£22 level(happy to be proved wrong), but Ā£12-16 is certainly reasonable in the next 24 months. The negatives are mostly priced in.
@Dougal1984 I actually work in the car industry for company vehicles. In April 2020 all cars moved to the new WLTP way of testing CO2ās and MPGāS (was instigated after the VW Scandal). - every ICE (internal combustion engines - petrol and diesel) cars had at least a 10-15% increase in their real life CO2 and their MPG lowered around the same %. The result of the CO2 increase saw a lot of cars move to a higher road tax bracket and company car driver benefit in kind rates increased dramatically for diesel and petrol drivers taking a ārepeatā car any time after 6/4/20. If you look at the latest registrations https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/ you will see a huge decline in normal petrol and diesel engines - but it also shows the decline in actual cars registered YTD - it is huge. You will see the rise in alternative fuel cars (petrol hybrid / plig in hybrid electric vehicle and battery electric vehicles). Petrol hybrids havent got much of an improvement of MPG over a traditional petrol or diesel, PHEVās are great but only if you charge them )mine averages 92mpg at present) but are thirsty if you dont charge them. Battery electric vehicles offer no company car tax for 2020/21 tax year - so you could be driving a Ā£60k Audi etron and paying no company car tax. So EVās are coming here even more so. The CAFE rules are now in place for all manufacturers selling cars in Europe - the average CO2 of all their sold portfolio for here on for the next few years has to be 95g/km - if they dont, they get fined ā¬95 for every gram for very car registered (regardless of Brexit as the UK has already signed up to the road to zero). So car fuel usage of fuel is going to continue to decline. Trucks are now looking at hydrogen - that will be next. Vans are now available in plug in hybrids and electric. While clean air zones continue to pop up in British cities the only way to get around the daily tariffs is an electric vehicle. We are in a serious time of change. Airlines will probably only be oilās major customer in the next few years in my opinion so there is no hope of a Ā£22 a share for RDS ever again - unless they evolve their forecourts to electric - do more gas - do more electricity. Just my opinion, but I can tell you now, ICE cars are not going to save the oil industry.
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What are all us poor people supposed to do when we canāt afford Ā£50k electric cars?
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If you are an expert on Cars, surely you must know the average age of car/truck on road.
So after how many years will average consumer get to buy average priced EV?
Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe, Peugeot e208, Peugeot e2008, the 10 VW 1D3 derivatives VW launched this week, Vauxhall eCorsa, Kia eNiro, Hyundai eKona, - all full ev - all below Ā£50k. Funding - nobody buys cars now - do a PCP or a PCH finance deal and get a car for around Ā£300 - Ā£400 a month - my mate had a Porsche Macann - Ā£351 a month on petrol - replaced it with an Audi eTron - Ā£61 a month on charging costs.
How many people buy brand new cars in dealership? 
I wonder ? 5%? 10%?
Trucks - not my thing but I do know clients that have them and forklifts - forklifts are moving to EV or hydrogen - trucks will eventually evolve too as most companies who operate them have some sort of environmental policy (needed for tenders). Yes, not everyone will change, but trust me, when you see major fleets (and FTSE companies) like BT moving to greener policies - https://newsroom.bt.com/bt-pledges-support-for-a-green-recovery-from-the-covid-19-pandemic/ you know that ICE powered vehicles are going to decline. Look guys, opinsions are like belly buttons, we all have them, I see my weekly order bank with less and less diesel and petrol every week.