The leaf is at least Ā£27k and the range is a joke. None of those cars are able to replace mine.
I see I can get one for under Ā£10k second hand. With no idea of battery health and actual mileage I can get out of it, but I can presumably expect well under 70 miles.
Itās a joke.
The rest of the cars you list are also expensive cars.
I need an electric car under Ā£15k that can do at least 180 miles at 80% charge. EVs seem no where near solving this problem.
(And Iām being generous, my car is a sub Ā£5k car that does 450 miles)
Thats the point - and loads of people dont know this - your statement is incorrect - people do not buy!!! Who can afford Ā£45k cash - nobody. They PCP it or do a personal lease ie people have a monthly budget in mind - say Ā£300 - they get quotes based on their annual mileage (with or with a maintenance package) and then chose a car that fits there budget - at the end of the 3 or 4 years they hand the car back and go again - in a brand new car. I havent bought a car since 2005 and then it was a used car - every car we have had since has either been a brand new company car or a brand new personal leased car.
1st generation Leaf was like the first iPhone - the new generation Leaf is like the iPhone 3 - it has a better range - lease one - go onto Nationwide Vehicle Contracts now and see the offers they have on Leafās - you will spend no more than Ā£15 - after 3 or 4 years just hand it back and by then the equivalent iPhone 7 will be out. Remember the costs you save on fuel. Im trading right now, got to go, BT looks a good price today.
I dont think you are getting the funding message - go into any BMW dealer - I want a 3 Series - yes sir, do you want to pay cash - no - do you want to PCP it - yes - whats your annual mileag - goes onnn - yes the monthly is Ā£xxx of pounds and the funder is Alphabet - see https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/fleet-leasing/fn50-data/ these are the companies that lease business and personal contract hire deals directly to companies and through dealers. Alphabet do mostly BMWās product, LEX do all Land Roverās funding, VWFS do all Audi, VW, SEAT, Skoda etc funding, ā¦people lease now instead of buying new cars - nobody can afford to but that BMW straight off. The leased cars come back to the dealer in 3 years - they then go onto the used car forecourt - then you get the 2nd time buyers either doing a used car PCP or they will do a hire purchase (get onwership) then. This is happening, you need to understand the market place - Id say 80% of new car sales are leased - they arent bought - this means the recycle / change period is every 3 to 4 years.
Why would I lease one? I own my car. The only expense are consumables, and fuel. I donāt want to start spending a monthly lease on a car I donāt own.
A Nissan Leaf on lease is Ā£250 a month, thatās mental. Fuel savings wonāt cover that extra cost over just buying another Ā£5k car.
@Vedran is right. Most people keep their cars for some time, they need reliable and long range. Gone are the days that families are all in the same town.
Everyone on my street bar two or three people all have 5+ year old sub Ā£10k cars capable of at least 400 miles. I donāt see them changing any time soon. Never mind the fact that that canāt charge EVs from their home
I donāt spend hard earned cash on brand name.
Everyone knows used cars are best bang for buck.
Ofc there are always folks that live above their paycheck, go buy new fancy cars. But that is not majority of folks.
I have yet to see privately owned car purchased in new car saloon or leased. From my circle of folks. Not that we are poor. But we aināt dumb/lazy to pay premium for 0 mileage car. Which loses 20% value just by stepping out of dealership.
Well, with the supposed $100 per kWh being the widely reported break even point, with a certain manufacturer announcing $57 per kWh price point within the next few years as the tech develops, we will soon hit a point where EV ownership costs are far cheaper than ICE vehicles.
Fleets will drive this change over the next decade, followed by the consumer. The fact that PCP and lease deals are becoming the main funding method of car purchase in this day and age will also drive this changeā¦ also driving more second hand purchases mid to late decade.
Back to Shell, I am long and truly believe that old money will help the transition to renewable energy. Long term, they will have little choice. Oil is never going away, but I can see use & volume based margins reducing.
People need to realise the key facts brought in by the EU and already agreed by the UK :
2020 - average CO2 of cars sold / registered in any EU country has to be CO2 95g/km across the portfolio range.
2025 - - average CO2 of cars sold / registered in any EU country has to be CO2 75g/km across the portfolio range.
2027 - this is the predicted year when EV sales will surpass ICE engine cars.
So in reality in the next few years there are going to be less and less petrol and diesel cars produced and therefore used car stock will dwindle with natural age.
Shell knows this - so there is no way that Ā£22 a share will ever come back. The question now is, and they have been fantastic in their recent write down, what will Shellās realistic target price be in the next few years? I cant see it being anymore than Ā£14 in next 3-5 years and thatās only if they do a major overhaul into green energy. They have the resources, the assets, the capital, the property - so they should succeed - but by then - I can charge my car at home, I was never able to fill my car up with petrol at home - and people need to realise this is an important factor when buying Shell. My PHEV is outside right now - charging. Yes, people in apartments etc cant charge EVās but car clubs are on the increase, car pooling etc and they are all EVās!
I agree, this is pure speculation right now. But in 5 years time when EVs are available for $25k US, that are capable of 400-500 mile range, with āfuel costsā of sub $500 per 10,000 miles and little to no service costsā¦ I believe the general consumer will be even more sold on PCP / lease.
Moving forward to 2030 when these vehicles are common place in the second hand market, can we really see that ICE vehicles are still going to be the car of choiceā¦ either new or second hand.
If charged purely from an octopus energy tariff, 10,000 miles in a Model 3 Long Range AWD is possible for a cost of Ā£110. Obviously this isnāt realistic, as supercharger and other away from home charging would be required for 300+ mile journeys. Even at Ā£300 per 10k miles versus a modern Ford Focus diesel at 58.9mpg the equivalent fuel cost would be around Ā£920.
I work in the oil industry, so I can see a lot of changes happening first hand. Oil is obviously required for a multitude of products and chemicals, however petrol and diesel for road fuel use is going to decline in developed nations over the decade. Emerging markets will keep the $ rolling for some time, but the old money has already started to realise the transition is required. I expect Shell to acquire even more electricity companies across the world over the next decade, in order to maintain some level dominance in the energy market as a whole.
Itās not just apartments. I donāt disagree with a lot of what your saying, but people canāt even park their car on their own street never mind outside their house. And with laws coming in restricting where cars can be parked thatās about to get worse.
Entire housing Infrastructures need completely demolished and rebuilt for modern times to support these types of things and no one has the want to do that kind of mega project. Until that happens thereās going to continue to be huge hurdles to EVs
I think you might also be overestimating car sharing. Itās not going to happen, couples have two cars for a reason.
I agree, this is likely to be one of the main barriers to entry in the UK. Less so in other developed markets.
I know of a few businesses that have actually installed multiple charging points in their car parks. Staff then pay a ~Ā£20 per month as a wage deduction to use these chargers. So it may be that those that cannot use home chargers, can charge once or twice per week at work for a car used for their daily commute (once 300 to 500 mile range is common place). Public Charing points are also expanding at a rapid pace and TSLA seem to be leading with their 250kWh super chargers.
Autonomous ride hailing is where things will inevitably end upā¦ but that all depends on your time horizon when it comes to investments across the board.
I am expecting Shell to drop to Ā£7 over the next few years before bouncing back to current levels over the next decade. I canāt seem them hitting over Ā£11 any time soonā¦ but who knows what the institutions plan on doing with their holdings. As long as they keep paying their dividend, the price to me is fairly irrelevant, as I plan to hold for 10+ years
A few years ago people said the same about China and laughed it offā¦ now they are leading the world in EV adoption, with expectations of the country having a total EV adoption of 50% by 2025.
India has been identified as the next big market for EV adoption. There is strong rumour (analysts mentioned on US news reports several times) that TSLA is considering India for their next Giga Factory site. I suspect this will come after their second factory site in China however, as demand speaks for itself.
Shell need to expand further into the electricity market and ensure they have market leading charging at their service stations over the next decade, to ensure they maintain their position in the energy market overall.
China has no hesitation about ripping down entire cities of building entire new ones. China is basically the king of mega projects. It just doesnāt happen here, the result is going to be this half baked adoption that hurts the poor.
Currently from what I have read, yes they do. However their government is forcing the move to renewables and hydroelectric, wind and solar are heavily subsidised by their government. Letās see what that percentage is in 2 years, as they are moving at a rapid pace to sustainable renewables.
Chinas government has committed $361Bn to renewable energy funding, with a goal of 61% clean energy by 2030. Analysts are predicting growth at a much stronger pace, with figures as high as 80% by 2025. Who knowsā¦ itās all speculation.
Itās positive that Shell are diversifying, but they need to increase their pace over to the electricity market to ensure relevance.
Moving to sustainable energy isnāt, moving to EVs and forcing ICE cars off the roads via regulation will because (at least here) adoption of EVs is being pushed with no work on everything else that needs to be done. Replacing houses with modern houses that can take a car, improved residential roads that can take cars, improved residential parking , improved residential power. None of this exists and the suggestions here so far is if you canāt afford an EV is to rent or share one which is just another endless bill.
More needs to be done, just making EVs isnāt enough
