Brexit - Market impact

What are people’s thoughts on what a “No-Deal” agreement will have on the market? Does anyone think this is already built into pricing or if we get a no deal will this wipe out a lot of recent gains on the ftse?

Just interested in people’s thoughts.


Try living in Northern Ireland lol we don’t know what’s going on :see_no_evil:


I genuinely feel your pain. It’s a bit of a mess. but rather than getting political I just wanted to gain people’s opinions on the market impact.

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I think that what is priced in is a basic deal… Not as comprehensive as what the EU has with other countries, but at least something that will allow tariff-free trade, with paperwork required. If this is the end result, markets will probably go up, 3-5%.

If there is no deal I think we will be seeing a 5-10% dip in european stocks and a fall in the pound.

These are just my thoughts/opinions, not advice nor data.
What are other people’s thoughts?

Biden confirmed we won’t have a deal until they’ve sorted they’re own country out and the uk markets went up so I don’t have a bloody clue!
In theory a no deal would mean expense on both sides so any drop for the UK should be level with the eu, it does open the door to other foreign trade though so maybe the rest of the worlds investors will view the UK as open for business rather than just open to the eu?

There’s a whole world out there that we have been shut off from for so long, anything can happen

I imagine a dip on UK stocks but not on European in general.
I’m very positive on German companies going up with a no deal and my feeling is that non UK investors are already planning to jump out from UK stocks.

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It depends on the stocks…
For example, europoean stocks with a significant exposure to the UK such as Unilever, Iberdrola, Santander, Shell, etc could dip significantly. But I think that the overall european market would dip with a “No Deal” (5% maybe?) and the Euro would fall slightly against the Dollar.

Less than the Pound and the LSE stocks, but still significant. Most likely an even larger dip in UK stocks (maybe 10%?). Particularly for financials such as Barclays.

Negative correlation between currency and stock market. No deal will cause sterling to drop, 77% of FTSE is owned outside UK, do the maths…

EU is dead. They know it.

A no deal will bring -10% off FTSE stocks with exposure to EU i the first day. Maybe more until January.

Hi @laguiar,
I have come back to this and looked at one of the indices that will be most affected by Brexit and that I am also quite familiar with, the Ibex-35, the large-cap index of Spanish companies. An economy heavily reliant on tourism and also car manufacturing, although this has limited presence in the index (the index is heavily reliant on Banks and Utilities, with a significant but smaller presence of Tourism, Steel, Construction and Renewables).

Companies of the Ibex-35 with subsidiaries/large operations in the UK (that I know of):
-IAG: Iberia & Vueling (Might even be forced to change shareholders, as they currently need to have 50% of EU shareholders to carry out internal EU flights)

  • Iberdrola: Scottish power
  • Santander (UK same name)
  • Sabadell: Small subsidiary producing heavy losses (cannot remember name)
  • Telefonica (UK same name)
  • Ferrovial (Owns significant stake of an airport in the UK, I think it was Gattwick)
  • Cellnex: Recently bought thousands of telecommunications towers
  • Inditex: I think it has a lot of clothes shops in the UK

Indirectly affected if tourism between the UK and Spain is affected:

  • Melia (Hotel company)
  • Aena (Manages spanish airports)

So, 8 out of 35 Ibex35 companies have operations in the UK and two more would be impacted by any diminishing tourism. This is just an example and probably the most exposed index to the UK (after LSE companies), but it shows how there are probably quite a lot of companies affected. Maybe the DAX and German companies won’t be too much affected, but I imagine that there are also quite a few companies across europe that could be heavily affected. For example, I guess that there are quite a few companies in the AEX (Dutch companies) with big exposures to the UK - I have not checked though.

Other possibly affected, within the Ibex-35:

  • Amadeus (Tourism)
  • Gamesa (exports turbines)
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Maybe temporarily then the FTSE will fly to 10,000.