Russia - Ukraine

A rated, 10 year guarantee, FENSA accredited.

Still BOGOF is it? :thinking:

Sorry, as Iā€™m sure you are aware with rising costs in materials we arenā€™t able to offer BOGOF. However, if you spend over Ā£300 I can offer you a discount if you use code #JeffPaysTax or #BOGOFHMRC

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Portfolio wise for me it doesnā€™t matter what happens, I have been holding defence stocks for a long time for this exact reason as a hedge (not Russia-Ukraine, war generally).

Hopefully good news in the right direction with small amounts of Russian troop withdrawals being reported currentlyā€¦time & satellite surveillance will tell.

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Itā€™s good Russia seems to be pulling back, my Gazprom and Evraz shares are now on the up!

Why do they pullback? What did the west offer in exchange?

Well tbh the media and the west were trying to egg Putin on and tried to create a war, looks like they failed.

Putin said numerous times he never intended to invade Ukraine.

Itā€™s all silly.

If he never intended to invade why spend all that money and time on entertaining the idea?

It seems a remake for the period pre-WWII. Hitler did something similar about the neighbor Czechoslovak regions with Germanic people, in 1938. To avoid the war, the western countries ā€œofferedā€ the Sudeten German territory of Czechoslovakia.

Now replace, Germany and Hitler for Russia and Putin, and Czech regions of Germanic people with Ukrainian regions with Russian people.

This passage is interesting (The four powers: Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy)

The four powers agreed to the annexation of the Czechoslovak borderland areas named the Sudetenland, where more than three million people, mainly ethnic Germans, lived. Adolf Hitler announced it was his last territorial claim in Europe.

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Indeed, seems plausible.

That is why US has stepped in with vigilance, to protect the ordinary people of Ukraine, as they care for their wellbeing and livelihood. :pray:

They have nuclear. God forbid. But when they have left with no other options they will use it.

Yes, but iā€™m not sure if Putin is crazy enough to do it, or just likes the world to think heā€™s crazy enough to do it.

Like the new KGB who use bio weapon poisonings to assassinate people and carry it out in such an obviously sloppy manner, leaving clues pointing to Russia everywhere, are they incompetent or just so brazen they donā€™t care?

Itā€™s all Brinkmanship really.

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Russia says it may be ā€˜forcedā€™ to respond militarily if the US wonā€™t agree to its unacceptable security demands on Ukraine.

What Russia wants: Russia has demanded that Ukraine be permanently barred from joining NATO. Russia warned it could be forced to respond militarily if the US doesnā€™t give in to its security demands.

They have a point. Think about if Russian Military command to be stationed in Mexico next to the US border, what do you think the US reaction ???

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Peace often is founded on balance of power. If that balance is disrupted existential fears occur and that spirals easily into violent conflict. The West has been isolating/trying to isolate China and Russia for years. There is a saying in my mother tongue: if you corner a rat, no matter how powerful the opponent it will jump at you and try to fight its way out. (poor translation but you get the point)

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A war is a 100% loose scenario of Russia. They cannot sustain an invasion economically for a long time.

Do you think the USA in fact wants Russia to attack Ukraine, so the world gets scared and justifies any measured they could take after that?

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So is it safe to say if anyone owns Russian stocks, is to sell up now?

There could be some lucrative investments here for the bold, and given the market doesnā€™t like ā€˜unknownsā€™, are there any Russian listed securities on 212 that already have this priced in?

The risks could be similar to the BABA chat that has so far failed to materialise, but could all Russian stocks be delisted from non Russian exchanges? Personally its one of the markets I generally steer clear from.

0.3% of VWRL is in Russian securities for example so potentially not a lot of risk exposure to most.

Evraz is a Russian security listed on ftse, good investment for me until lately due to these issueā€™s share price has fallen badly

Gazprom could move quite a bit either wayā€¦
If Russia invades and it is sanctioned it could be affected heavily, also Nord Stream 2 would likely be cancelled. On the other hand if Russia backs down and/or reaches a deal and Nord stream 2 goes ahead as well as ramping up its pipelines towards China, it could do quite well, especially if gas prices continue to be high.

Also, I found a handful of stocks listed in Europe and with large exposure to Ukraine. I have added in brackets the area from memory, so donā€™t quote me on this:
-Ferrexpo on LSE (Iron miner)
-MHP SE on LSE (Agriculture / food such as chicken)
-UKRProduct Group on LSE (Dairy / food)
-TMM Real Estate Development on the Frankfurt Exchange (Construction and Real Estate)

The first two are relatively liquid small caps with reasonable volumes, the last two are very illiquid.

Is anyone aware of any other stocks with significant exposure to Ukraine?

I couldnā€™t find any mid caps or large caps.

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