I don’t understand people chasing micro caps , buying them at extraordinary valuations , as investments. They might be ok for trading, but imho if you really believe there will be a vaccine soon, you might be better off investing in selected blue chips that are left behind.
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Or diversify and invest in generics too.
The drugs might be old, but they do work and the NHS spends a ton on them.
A new blockbuster can turn a juicy profit, but organisations like NICE can stifle UK spending if they are too expensive for minimal gain over generics.
I too would rather invest in a research based pharma company, and do. But I would pick 1 or 2 whose pipeline I believed in, and stick with them. Pharma is purely for the long game. Biotech speculation, even for people who know the industry is for fools.
Getting back to covid “cures” though. Small molecule treatments do usually take a long time to get to market, but there are routes to accelerate this. Remdesivir is an example of this as it was actually intended for ebola, but appears to work in covid. The FDA granted Gilead exclusivity, which is normally 7 years, for a covid treatment. A completely novel drug made in a lab today may never be a realistic treatment, as explained earlier because viruses mutate. This is exactly why the common cold cannot be cured with a small molecule drug.
Vaccines are different, as they use the immune system of the host to kill the virus. They use attenuated viruses, or other immune inducing biologics to trigger this. It means they can be designed, manufactured and tested much faster. And with a global pandemic, drug safety agencies will waive plenty legislation to get treatments to patients quicker.
I for one would happily take a covid vaccine, and would encourage all who are able, to do the same. A small molecule drug that has been through safety testing for another disease I may consider taking, but these are only going to be needed for severe cases where you may be close to death.
Sorry for the long post, but there is a lot to unpack here
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You make excellent and valid points which are all true. May I also point out that currently there is no consensus on whether you develop immunity after being infected by the Covid virus itself. This would mean that a vaccine would be utterly useless. It is going to take a while before much is understood about Covid. Therefore, I maintain that a vaccine is a long way off and any hope at the moment is just speculative and wishful thinking imho.
Totally agree, a vaccine in 2021 is a long shot. Immunity is not guaranteed. And large portions of the population may not even take it due to antiscience and antivaxxers.
This is going to be around for a long time, and getting back to the original post. Trying to cash in on who is going to get a vaccine first is not the best way to think about this.
PPE manufacturers, delivery companies, online retailers. Cleaning material manufacturers and cleaning firms. These will all benefit in the short term, maybe focus on ancillary industries but make sure there is pharma in your portfolio to some extent
Exactly. Most of the big cap Pharmas with a strong balance sheet are good to have in your portfolio because they have a good track record of paying dividends. It costs billions of pounds to bring a drug to market so if you want to invest long term then it makes sense. If you are however looking to trade short term then small cap Biopharma with promising products in the pipeline may make you a quick buck but it may not last.
Here’s my top tip on this.
Don’t bother with betting on who makes the first vaccine. Consider logistics.
No matter who makes the vaccine, they will need to be shipped stored and chilled. Probably kept at very cold temperatures, like -20 or -80C
Look into chill chain shipping companies. Industrial freezer manufacturers and distributors. Dry ice manufacturers too.
Any sugestions that we can look into? 
Haha, I’m not doing all the work here 
I was just asking to have a look into it, but I actually don’t think that Covid-19 vaccine shipping will be that significant, with there being vaccine development facilities for flu vaccines all over the place.
Also, freezers ships are also used for food so there will be a significant number, although I don’t know if they are the same ships.
I think herd immunity is almost there and that this is one of the biggest farces in history. After Xmas and the flu combo I think this will blow over.
Good prediction!
Agree with you on the farce part, but then I look at what’s happening in India and think 
Yes but they have a population of 1 billion + to cater for 0.1% of the population they’d need to hospitalise 1 million people, I doubt they have the infrastructure in place. Plus India is notorious for corruption with regards to hoarding and spiking oxygen prices.
Then you add in culture and dumping bodies in rivers you wash in etc…it’s a recipe for disaster.