When will the EV crash happen?

I like nick spacemonkey Illustration

GM = Nokia

Ford = Blackberry

Tesla = Apple

?? = Samsung (Floor is potentially open here)

Nio = Huawei

When will the EV crash happen?? Ask the same question

When will the Mobile phone Crash happen??

It will need to differentiate between individual company will go burst because of manipulation such as KNDI, NKLA or bad management.

IMHO It is entirely different with dotcom bubble as this product is in demand and dominant will keep growing due to new regulation. There are significant differentiation from one company to other companies in term of market cap and patens and technology beeing used and developed.

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Unfortunately, there is no right advise. It is what you are comfortable with. Option 1: Accept the loss and invest the money somewhere else as markets are on uptrend Option 2: wait and see what happens. No company would risk losing US investors and eventually they will become compliant, it is the question of when they would be. Can you hold your nerve and sit on it whilst you could lose further?

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Guys just to be clear, EV as a technology ad part of life is of course here to stay. I created this thread to discuss the bubble of EV stocks. The same way DOT come bubble didn’t mean the internet ended.

Also whilst analogies of mobile phone companies to EV companies is nice, remember we cant be sure Tesla are the ā€˜apple’ and are not the Yahoo or the insert company that went bust but yes I would say Tesla is a safe-ish bet long term but be prepared to hold long in case of harsh correction. The safe bet is probably companies like VW or big established brands who will move to EV, equally im aware people in EV stocks are not looking for safety so perhaps I am just speaking to myself haha.

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I will be very carefull asking investment advice from someone on the internet I do not know.

None of investment product is risk free, so you will need a calculated risk vs reward. More reward will mean need to prepare exposure of highher risk.

This is an excellently clear and very insightful (imo) short video on Nio:

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@Buurbachi
BlackRock’s ETF for EVs has those holdings as top 10.

BYD LTD H 4.03
TESLA INC 3.74
KIA MOTORS CORP 2.80
NVIDIA CORP 2.68
FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES NV 2.50
APTIV PLC 2.48
XILINX INC 2.48
HEXAGON B 2.46
MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD 2.46
GENERAL MOTORS 2.45

Aladdin Ai’s picks are usually a good thermometer to know if you’re about to buy shit or something that still has potential…

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I can’t honestly believe we are talking about an ev crash when the ev concept hasn’t even been fully realised yet.
Yes Tesla is priced heavy (no one seems to care though before I start another argument)
Yes Nio is too but until we have an ev dominant market I can’t see why investors would cash out and crash the advancements these companies are making.
They are only bloated stocks if what they have said and planned for doesn’t happen so until then I don’t see anything changing

Maybe not so much a crash, but potentially over hyped for where things are at.

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Of course can’t disagree but I heard the same things said about Tesla last year and here we are looking like $600 a share are soon going to be a dream buy price.
All I’m saying is the ev experiment hasn’t even happened yet but unlike the cannabis market that seems to have had a similar trajectory before crashing, the ev concept is being accepted and pushed forward by virtually every country meaning there’s more good uncalculated growth ahead.
I just don’t see the bubble…yet

The only ā€œbubbleā€ may be the sheer number of start ups with excessive valuations and little to no revenue. But I don’t believe that bubble is big enough to burst yet, sentiment will drive it for a bit but we won’t truely know for a couple of years when the start ups have to prove the valuations.

The EV sector may also be over saturated with the start ups and I presume there won’t be space for all of them too play.

To the point on an EV crash, I don’t see it. It’s here to stay in some form. Wether that be the Tesla’s, VWs etc (which is more probable) and a few of the start ups actually proving there salt.

Agreed, if the start ups can offer something of value to the big player’s they will likely be bought up or merged depending on the size

Hope this overpriced behemoth keeps tanking before it joins the S&P later this month :grinning:

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dot com bubble last for around two years, in that regards we’re just getting started lol

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Those who are interested in the full list of their holding. iShares Electric Vehicles and Driving Technology UCITS ETF

https://www.blackrock.com/lu/individual/products/307130/ishares-electric-vehicles-and-driving-technology-ucits-etf-usd-acc-fund

Downlod the excell spreadsheet on the right hand side on the right top.

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Yeah I cant quite fathom the MCAP of Tesla. Its got so much forward hopes and dreams priced in, just looks insane.

How many car companies out there, would you need to add up their MCAP to get close to Tesla?

Not so many, only these.

Where did you read that, would be interested to read the article. Not that I’ll be doing any investing. I only stock pick in things I understand.

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Nope. It does not make sense If you just based your estimation solely on that figure.

EVs stocks are technological stocks which generate a different ecosystem with traditional ICER car makers. It started from rare earth materials mining, battery technology, self-driving technology charging station, financing and later come the EV themselves. As it is the case with technological companies, you are relying on the future revenue and growth, to justify the market cap.

Also, it is a fallacy to compare the traditional carmaker like, Ford, GE, Mercedes, BMW to compare with these new kids on the block, The EV carmakers. Based on many researches these old guys are already difficult to compete with them in price, and technology penetration due to late comer in these new markets and ecosystem. They are good in making ICE, but EV is a different industries with ICE. The only advantage these old guys are having is probably making the chassis/bodies. Other components are entirely different.

I personally believe some individual players might collapse as they will not be able to compete with the big guys. This might affect other stocks in short term. But is does not mean a bubble burst.

China is the biggest market for EV. I read an article from Baillie Gifford, in about more than a decade from now, it will be very difficult to register your non-electrical vehicles in China. The future demands are driven by the regulations. Just count on how many vehicles out there currently on the streets needed to be replaced in the next few decades. To me it is an elephant in the room. But do not forget also diversify your portfolio in other sectors as well, not solely invest in EV

that bill was bi partasan. and biden is being investigated for his ā€œfriendly ties to chinaā€ america now sees china as the enemy across party’s so i dont see that happening

Exactly, the same for me I don’t like gambling. It’s an article on the Motley Fool, basically I use Yahoo finance and they group all the news related to a stock together from different sources. Either you put a stock in your watchlist or just search for it. For example

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