2021 performance

Hope you all had good 2021. SP500 has given a 28% return this year and i hope we have beaten the index performance with our stock picks :blush:

Personally i havenā€™t beaten that rate!

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Good question. You really want to work out your time weighted return to do a like for like comparison. Not sure where Iā€™m sitting at.

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Crazy isnā€™t it! Iā€™m sure I have beaten it but no way to know for sure until Trading 212 add weighted returns. The graph doesnā€™t even show your yearly returns, as it only ever shows all timeā€¦

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I would say I have done, but thatā€™s easily said because 70% is weighted towards the S&P500 and the rest is typically big tech like Alphabet which is up 75% or so.

I made a google sheet that does weighted returns, will let you know my results later as I need to add in other accounts.

EDIT: *I look to be beating VWRP FTSE All World Index ETF which was my aim. so thatā€™s somethingā€¦

*My performance of late has been dipping as I decided to buy some AML, ARB.K and SAGA after a trip to the pub.

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I think comparing your returns to the S&P 500 is all good but as long as it doesnā€™t detract you from long term goals and for instance making you sell something because it is underperforming. hereā€™s a random example I can think of:

Johnny is 21, he is young and wants to take a risk and beat the S&P 500, he buys 5 high growth tech stocks he believes in and sits back and waits for large gains, he will keep a close eye on the S&P 500 to compare how he is doing. After 1 year he compares his returns to the S&P 500 and he is down -30% while the S&P 500 is up 30%. Down at the pub people are laughing as S&P 500 has had great returns while Johnny sees he is failing in comparison to others who didnā€™t even do any research like he did, he gives up on his dream of outperforming S&P 500 and sells his portfolio at a loss and jumps on the S&P 500 bandwagon. Fast-forward 10 years, Johnny is doing OK, his S&P 500 stocks have given him an OK return. Out of interest he checks the 5 tech stocks he sold to see how they are doing, to his shock they have made a huge comeback and exploded and he would now be very rich. Johnny thinks ā€œif onlyā€ I didnā€™t sell then I would be much better off now. Fast forward 20 years, Johnny is still thinking about those 5 stocks, telling his children about them. Fast forward 60 years, the stocks Johnny sold haunted him until his grave and it will be just one of many ā€œwhat ifā€ stories in the world of investing (ok morbid ending sorry but itā€™s kind of true in a way) .

Johnny had a good plan but never stuck with it, he gave up too early, at what point in time do we rule Johnnyā€™s 5 tech stock portfolio a ā€œfailureā€? after 1 year? 5 years? 10 years?

TL:DR: yes compare yourself to the S&P 500 returns but donā€™t do anything irrational like selling stocks at a loss after a short period, give your stocks as much time as you can to perform for you to give yourself best chance to beat the index if that is your goal.

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A benchmark is good but often peoples default is the S&P 500, if you are only really investing in companies within the S&P 500 then yes perhaps thats a good benchmark, but I would see something like VWRL a more accurate one for me, albeit not reflective of my weightings. My US equities make up around 45-50% of my single stock holdings, China and UK make up the other 50+%. VWRL for example is 60% US, 3.8% China, 3.8% UK, rest is Japan and others.

But I have definitely underperformed the market this year (whether VWRL, VUSA or even factoring in a portion of VFEM) as Chinese equities have struggled, as well as many of my US/UK value plays havenā€™t come to fruition yet, likely 2022/2023 some will do well I would argue so will be interesting next year, but at least 20-30% may take longer to really get going.

@Dougal1984 Do you have a link to a spreadsheet template? I struggle to work out time weighted returns.

I havenā€™t beaten the FTSE but happy with my returns, i think the most important thing as we go into 2022 is for investors to realistic with their expectations and recognise that 2021 was an exceptional year.

Only 3 hedge funds outperformed sp500 in 2021

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10.06% return on my long term portfolio, but it also has fixed income assets and commodities.

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Ok got it yes I have.
Portfolio vs S&P 500

Is it hard to do the time weighted returns?

To work it out, you essentially want to unitise your portfolio. So open an account with Ā£100, and call that 100 units so Ā£1 a unit.

You make a 20% average gain on your holdings, so your portfolio is now worth Ā£120 and each unit is worth Ā£1.20. You then deposit another Ā£100, so you now have deposited Ā£200 in total, your portfolio is worth Ā£220, and have 183.33 units at Ā£1.2 if that makes sense?

I half plan to work on my sheet at the weekend to simplify it, but becomes moot once 212 add the below:

It avoids distortion of inflows and outflows to give a common comparison to funds/benchmarks.

So you have the total value of your portfolio at each point we deposit/withdraw from 212, itā€™s a case of doing that sum. Itā€™s not straight forward as people think but 212 have all the data points to calculate.

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I canā€™t wrap my head around it, Iā€™ll maybe give it a go another time. I know itā€™s hard which is why Iā€™ve never done it

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Why not use Excel with XIRR function, it uses time and money to calculate the return (XIRR)?

Itā€™s simple and fast, why trying to invent the wheel? :wink:

There are some XIRR Excel templates on the Web, you just need to adjust to your personal needs.