Royal Dutch Shell - opinions

Also accelerates profit margins and share priceā€¦once it peaks I sell. :joy:

Plus you think India, China, South America and pretty much 75% of the worldā€™s population (emerging economies) are going to all go green and EVā€¦think again.

So many in Europe and US are blinkered by our way of life, check the stats and the demographics.

Shell,BP and Total are early adopters of H2 production blue and green.
So Iā€™ll be pumping money into them for as long as they are a part of these massive projects.
EV was never going to be the answer for all but that doesnā€™t mean oil will stay king and those that are acting now will see good returns.

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As the unofficial ā€˜oil and gasā€™ thread I will post a brief bit about BPs earnings here:

from BBC -
Bernard Looney told Reuters that the oil giant was "a cash machine at these sort of prices"

from BP earnings document:
Q3

  • $3.3bn profit (up from $2.8bn in Q2)
  • Net debt reduced further to $32bn from $32.7bn in Q2 and $40bn a year ago.
  • Dividend for Q3 still at the Q2 level (4% raise on last years quarterly divs) of $0.0546 working out to a 4.6% yield on 350p share price.
  • $0.9bn Buybacks in Q3 ($0.5bn in Q2)

Shareholder returns going forward:

  • They have announced further $1.25bn buybacks for this coming quarter (roughly 1.3% of share count at 350p share price).
  • Dividend maintained at same level (4.6% annual yield on 350p)

Speculative valuation thoughts:
TTM P/E now around 11
Next quarter likely be down at 8 P/E if share price constant at 350p, if P/E 11 maintained with anticipated earnings for Q4 then upside of 30%+ potential to 450p+.

Clearly todays 3% share price drop currently is a result of investors who wanted further dividend growth, I am actually happier they are plowing into buybacks whilst the stock is in this price range. If oil and gas dont have massive pullbacks then I see BP as a 400p+ stock within 3-6 months (15% further upside) with another 2.5-5% shareholder returns of 3-6months buybacks/divs.

Still long, and still my largest holding.

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I am gradually exiting. Sold 2 tranches of c20-25% at 338 and 355, so at roughly half my holding.

I could see longer term growth but I have c50 stocks which imo is too many so trimming down some of the areas Iā€™m less knowledgeable about.

Edit: BP that isā€¦I donā€™t have shell.

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Thats me out now. Last tranche of BP gone at 345

Couple of interesting stories in UK oil companies this morning:

Looks like due to the recent activist investor pressure. I note that it follows Unilever (a holding of mine) did a similar move last year. I guess UK is more favourable to many companies still.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/aker-bp-owners-carry-out-planned-sale-of-5-stake-in-norwegian-player/2-1-1098329

BP realising some gains on their joint venture Aker BP, seems they still hold 100m hares worth about $4bn.

Fair play, what was your cost basis our of interest?

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About 290. I was buying from Jan to near end of Sep, been gradually selling since.

Iā€™m still holding BP, I still believe in them and they are doing more then most oil companies for green energy.

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Aye, I donā€™t see anything wrong with them per se. I my issue is more with my own knowledge gap so looking elsewhere (consolidating the other 40 or so stocks I have).

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Interesting that the name is changing from Roy al Dutch Shell to Shell.

Guess we will know more on or after 10th December.

Well i think these changes are good for investors so i voted for it to go ahead today on HL

How do you vote on that?

My RDSB shares are held with HL a different broker, not sure how it works with T212.

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Voting is not something T212 implemented.

I think it would be a great addition, I was thinking about this earlier today actually.

I suppose T212 implementing voting may not be that important as the weight of just 1 vote from a pension fund will dwarf the entire vote of all the retail investors on this platform :rofl:

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It was requested several times but is not in their short term plans.

:joy:

How long have you been a shareholder of Shell?

I saw voting for a few stocks last year. So it canā€™t be too far off.

I bought shell august 2020 for dividends which theyā€™ve cut but mostly as a backdoor to clean energy as i believe titans like shell, BP & their comrades will eventually dominate the space.

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