Not sure but I think they say 25k new homes need built each year in Scotland to keep housing affordable, so on the same basis 150k in England. Headwinds could be if population growth stalls.
People always say housing is too high, but I still think itās āaffordableā to those with good cash management to buy in your mid 20ās. You just need to be a bit more realistic on where you live.
Iām looking at both Taylor Wimpey and persimmon. So far Iām leaning more to persimmon
I always preferred TW. A better quality finished product.
Persimmon seems better run from the point of profits and margins, I wouldnāt know about the actual house quality.
Although taylor going on a land buying spree makes a tempting case too. the dividend is better % wise but like someone said earlier persimmon paid in 2020 while tw didnt
Iād imagine so. Persimmon are very much a race to the bottom sort of buyer, whilst TW have a lean towards quality and performance.
Still canāt decide but both seem to be dropping still so waiting doesnāt seem too bad.
Might end up getting both to be honest.
I donāt hold either any more but I did hold TW for a long time. Like you, I found it was a bit of a toss-up between the two. At the time, I decided against Persimmon because its chief exec was handed a Ā£100m bonus, which didnāt sit right with me.
Which one would you recommend or lean to now then. I donāt mind the 100m bonus. Iām used to seeing execs get paid tons, most of my stocks are American positions.
Itās hard to say as I havenāt looked at the numbers in a few years. As the Donald suggests though, qualityās going to count. The industry faces a few headwinds ā cladding, āfleeceholdā homes etc ā so Iād probably still lean towards TW despite a fair few scandals of its own.
Thereās no harm in splitting the allocation 50:50, as you say, just donāt leave yourself overexposed ā someday, weāll have a Labour government again and intervention will reach new levels.
This is probably the main difference if choosing between the two stocks, Taylor Wimpey bought land and increased its land bank through both raising cash last year but also stopping dividend, now based on recent earnings for both in first half of year TW has almost double the land Persimmon has, and also about 50% work in progress, so arguably this means Taylor Wimpey earnings can grow from here significantly and over period of time, but Persimmon will have to spend more to get that same amount of land, at likely a higher cost basis than last year.
One thing to note with Persimmon, I am less knowledgeable on them than TW but looking over recent half year resuts they had EPS of 122p, but paid a dividend of 125p, so lets see if the next half year results how much over they have after the 100p dividend that was given month or so ago.
Taylor Wimpey on other hand had payout ratio of less than 50% as such increased cash from about 700m to 900m.
As mentioned above, you could just go 50:50, but right now I would favour Taylor Wimpey as I am not needing maximise income right now, and the excess cash will be returned I am sure in a tasty special dividend starting again from next year. Question is for me is do I add now in my region of 150p which I like for TW.
If TW have done more of a land grab, then that and their build quality over Persimmon should put them on a much better footing.
Iām going to start slowly buying tw with spare funds.
If it all goes tits up I know who to invoice.
Haha, I got a little more today around the 153p mark, previously I had a price alert at 151p and few months back it got to like 153/154 and didnāt trigger haha. Short of a housing crash 
then this will get up to 175-190p range again so if looking to sell at that point will make a 20%+ profit plus will have picked up a 2.7% dividend if buy before 7th Oct.
Realistically I think their Tangible NAV will be about 120p or so in next 6 months update (i dont think they release NAV in trading update which are the quarters in-between half year updates) so I feel from 150p region there is little downside other than a house crash
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE 
Too late, it is already considered as so.
Iām just putting in a few hundred here and there and I can finally get tw out of my mind, I was thinking about it last year too.
Well, letās see how investing in housing goes. The swing trade doesnāt sound bad either but will hold for now.
New builds are such garbage, just adding my two pennies worth. Unless and specifically unlessā¦they are fitted with A rated safestyle windows. Then they are ok.
Money to be made from the developers though I do agree. Although rising interest rates is going to cut their sales/margins in the coming years.
Yeah I wouldnāt buy a TW (or other new build) house personally, but the issue is with the UK is subsidies and schemes for new buyers are all targeted at new builds, so even with interest rates higher the people who NEED to buy will likely mostly have to choose from new builds. But yes interest rates are a headwind for sure, I see another 2-3 years of significant house prices increases with interest rates rising from 0.1% to about 1-1.5% within 3-5 years.
Despite the build quality they are far more energy efficient at least. It also gives an element of flexibility to add value.
Next year Iāll be removing all my downstairs walls with the exception of the utility room, cutting in a window upstairs and adding a bedroom by reconfiguring the walls. Going to cost 15kish but add on 40k+.
What Iām getting at is that you canāt do that with block work and the thermal properties of the block work arenāt typically as good as modern partitions. Hence why there was a scheme of councils adding a layer of insulted board on top of block work
Every cloud and all that jazz.
Spent 60k on mine and made about 100k profit (old build)
Donāt get me wrong new builds serve a purpose and some are well done but they just donāt compete to traditional pre 1930s etcā¦
You donāt get the same land or privacy and there is nothing bespoke or special about them, they have no character and are built by simpletons. Plus you have to pay maintenance fees for upkeep of the land or share boilers etcā¦often built on flood plains or brownfield sites and suffer from subsidence. They almost amount to pre-fabs with their glass fibre chimneys lol.
Itās all preference anyway, beauty is in the eye of the beholder but in terms of value for money they donāt compete. Although there is one easy way to make money on new builds, very easyā¦
Be the guy who repairs them
Hahahaha snag man is one